buckeye

3 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

I go back to the Easternwx days....no earlier....but i was fortunate enough to enjoy the DT eruptions {thinner skin than Trump), Ji winter cancels and the endless JB bashing. Great fun.

I have the high honor of being the topic of DT's first blog on easternuswx.   It was entitled "why I hate buckeye", (except the b was replaced with an f)

Ok, back to weather.   Interesting that the 46 day snow mean on the eps has the greatest snowfall through Chicago and Michigan....while totally screwing the MA.   You would think with the upper air pattern it's advertising, Chicago would be a tundra and the MA weenies would be digging themselves out of feet of snow.

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

FWIW the 18z FV3 looks even better than it's 12z for you guys, with warning criteria snows from southern IL through the southern halfs of IN/OH.  

that'd be great if the FV3 didn't have a verification score similar to a cras ensemble member.

4 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Great weenies think alike. My winter weather lustiness has been spent on the Mid Atlantic forum as well. So much so that I have developed a kindred spirit with the likes of Ji, Bob Chill and Yoda. Sad! We Lakes/OV crew must have other diversions when these putrid patterns persist. Over there...they treat every run like its the Lotto numbers being televised on Saturday night...even though there is no winter weather in sight. Dozens of pages a week on long term threads that yield nothing but broken hearts. Here.....virtually nothing. If winter does deliver later this month....the gods may well bless the M. Atlantic...and thumb her nose at us. After all we have other things in our lives....at least those who don't spend their dreams in the Mid Atlantic with Ji.

Not sure how long you've been on these boards but I consider myself an 'Elder' lol.   I go back to pre-wrightweather, (I'm talking like compu-serve TWC forum), which was pre-easternuswx, which was before americanweather.    Ji was around back then, (shout out to Hoosier too), we're talking like 20 years ago and there were no regional forums.  You can imagine what it was like when a storm was coming and we were all fighting over which way it was going to track.   DT, LC, HM, all were regular posters.   It was a crazy sh*t show but it was also a lot of fun.  I actually miss bantering with a lot of those guys, (Ji, weatherfella, and so many others that have now vanished to their own regional corners).   Ji cracks me up with some of his sarcastic posts.  

But yes, back to current times.  It's amazing the time, thought, and analysis some of those guys put into posting.   Sometimes I wonder if they have jobs and responsibilties....   

It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums.    We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc.    So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there.

Well, fwiw to our back yard, according to the MA and NE mets, once again the weeklies are even more epic than the ones last week, which were more epic than the ones a week before that, which were more epic than the week before that....and yes more epic than....well you get the idea.

...and yet through it all the MA and NE have an even greater snowfall futility to date than many of us....which in istself is an amazing feat.  

I'm assuming that the deafening quiet on our forum is an unsettling reality that the trough axis is probably forecasted, (in this upcoming 'epic' period), to be too far east for us to get anything much more than a good cirrus smoking during the seemingly inevitable parade of KU's, HECS's, and BEC's that the eastern weenies are being told to strap themselves in for.     

oh well, cue pondo's, I-should-have-never-left-philly-rant , in....3...2...1...

20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Actually the euro at 96 looked much better than the 00z.  Trough was deeper and better heights in front.  I thought it was going to a GFS solution then it just crapped the bed at 120.    I think it still has about a 50/50 shot of being the model that caves between it and the GFS.

....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive.     Euro probably gonna win this.

Actually the euro at 96 looked much better than the 00z.  Trough was deeper and better heights in front.  I thought it was going to a GFS solution then it just crapped the bed at 120.    I think it still has about a 50/50 shot of being the model that caves between it and the GFS.

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Slight exaggeration I think

Sorry,

86.76%

I have zero faith in the gfs.  If the 12z euro continues to show a non-event on a system only 4-6 days out.... it's probably over.  Euro only caves to the gfs beyond day 5, any caving that happens under that is always from the gfs.

21 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The GFS and GGEM are fairytales. The UKMET is reality. Matter of fact, the GGEM and GFS have been so bad this winter, they should think about shutting them down to save money.

boobie fail?

One of those deals where the best case scenario is probably being shown with a couple...maybe 4".    Any more phasing and it mixes, any less and it's weak sauce south of us.    High pressure to the north is weakening and moving east so there's nothing to stop a more phased storm from sending in the warm tongue. 

But hell, at least it's something to track.

6 minutes ago, Steve said:

Someone just posted a Snowstorm thread that includes Ohio for this weekend... has doom written all over it!!

....not until I start participating 

1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

Only time will tell. Heres Buffalo AFD. Since they're talking about beyond January 15th time frame, it looks like they arent sold on the idea of a cold second half.  

Looking further down the road...while we will be experiencing below normal temperatures during this period...a large impressive storm system over the northern Pacific in the vcnty of the Emperor Seamounts will set the stage for a warm up. A strong East Asian jet supporting this storm system will extend across the Pacific by the end of this forecast period...and this should encourage Pacific modified air to flood the country during the ensuing week. The influx of the maritime airmass into the center of the country with a pattern that typically induces ridging east of the Rockies will favor a spell of warmer weather for our region for the week following the end of this specific forecast period. Stay tuned.

might be onto something.   I was just looking at some things.   The SOI which had gone strongly negative (-20 4 days ago) is now already back up to -4 and rising.   The mjo (both gfs and euro), have us currently in 8 but moving to the COD in few days and then emerging out of the COD in phase 6.    Those are all signals that certainly don't support any brutal cold period down the road.    Also, the 12z gfs looks dramatically different days 14 and 15 on the 500 map than it has in recent runs, (and not in a good way).

Either way, it's going to be fascinating to see how all of this winds up.

7 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I can tell that the longer we go without a big storm or big cool down is slowly overwhelming those forecasting for cold. A few local weather individuals I follow on twitter have now stepped back from a prolonged cold and snowy 2nd half of January and February. 

The Buffalo NWS also says that beginning next week they expect a substantial warm up.  

interesting observation.  I actually feel the opposite.   Last week it was looking like the calls for a brutal cold end of Jan into Feb were in trouble, but everything I've seen since than has flipped back to that potential brutal cold period happening.   As someone else said, cousin Eddy just brough Clark's boss to him with a christmas bonus + 20% higher than last year 

JB is now back to bringing up 77-78 and claiming a brutal 30 to 60 day period on the horizon....    shocking... I know.   (as much as I'd love snow, it would almost be worth going back to a December pattern just to see him meltdown again).    

2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro did have it but it was weak and precip was along/south of the OH River.

Hope it trends better.....im ready to track something.

59 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro members have some decents hitters so there is some support.

Looked to me like about 9 members out of 50 show a light to moderate hit, only 1 or 2 show something more significant.  Vast majority ,show nothing.

Who knows though, maybe the gfs is going to be the first to trend better.   But it's hard to get enthused when the euro is not seeing it 6 days out.

55 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Seems there might be something next Wednesday. Both 12z Euro and 12z FV3 both showed a system across the south bring snow as far north as the OH River some sig accumulations in AR/MO. 18z GFS showing a more phased solution getting sig accumulations into southern OH.

Meh, I'd be surprised it trended stronger or more phased.   The 18z gefs is much less impressed then the op.    I think this is the gfs doing its usual appear...dissappear...re-appear games before it finally deep sixes it.

55 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I'd be pretty pissed if we got a bunch of snow in March and April. We have had a useless spring season for a couple years now.

Agree....lets get blasted for 3 or 4 weeks from late Jan into Feb and then snap the back of father winter.

9 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Yeah, but if the storm track is right, it could be paradise on earth and a very late blossoming winter I imagine.

Would love a 2010 redux.   One thing I remember about that stretch of awesomeness is that the gfs started showing epic snowstorms piling up in the fantasy range .....it of course screwed up the details but nailed the 2-3' of snow on snow we ended  up getting.   

That's what I'm looking for....storminess signal in the LR about the time the cold comes south.   Really no threats showing up yet in any of the LR guidance.

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Not having a winter storm warning in almost 4 years really sums it up. I don't think I've seen anything more than 6" since the March 2008 blizzard. Somethings got to give and hopefully that can happen here in the next couple of months.

The good news is climo always has a way of balancing out which means when we do get our groove back, it should be pretty nice....the bad news is that could be this year or in 3 years.

Fwiw, the 384 hour gfs and most lr guidance looks ready to bring the hammer down temp-wise.   Get ready for a long stretch,of brutal cold with pennies and nickels. 

Just now, pondo1000 said:

Believe it when I see it. Though, I fully anticipate texts from my sister on the east coast complaining of all the snow. She recently moved & I tried to get her to move here so she could bring some of that luck this way. 

My daughter moved to DC for work this summer.  When she came home for Christmas she told me she loved how warm it is there .   

38 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Really to be expected around here. You can’t expect to continue this wet pattern if pattern is ultimately going to change.

I know it seems that way in recent years.   Honestly though wet and cold patterns shouldn't be exclusive.   We had some amazing low pressure tracks for early winter that failed to produce because there was no cold air anywhere, but it's not like having antecedent cold air around would have kept those storm tracks from happening.   I don't think cold and wet are mutually exclusive.....granted....BRUTALLY cold and wet usually are though.

If we can keep this <angrysummons>boobie<angrysummons>  look going.....split flow...and start bringing normal to slightly below normal air on the playing field than our only issue becomes timing, but at least there's something to track.

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol how do you get EPS snowfall? The next 2 weeks look continued mild, thereafter is when the cold looks to take over. It's one thing to hear of cold euro weeklies, but when I see CPC & CFS going blue in the longrange, confidence is high in a turn towards much colder weather

You should know better than taking me literally.  I'm being a bit facetious here.   My point is that although all signs point to colder weather,  the eps mean is putrid for a 15 day stretch in January for our neck of the woods.   That would indicate there are plenty of ensemble members out of the 51 that are complete shutouts, (and there are, I checked).   We are in the Midwest, in January, with temps heading for a cool down and it appears we could be heading for a dry NW flow pattern, as Stebo has also indicated.

Emerging from the wettest year on record for CMH only makes it even more craptastic.

Just now, pondo1000 said:

Only good news in regards to this is how many times have we been buried by them in past years only to get shutout? 

True, reverse psychology is all we got.

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

With all of those accumulating snows in November, only one (November 15th) stuck to the pavement. After the next few weeks the long range is looking much, much colder, so a period of Winter is finally looking like it's on the way.

You're in better shape than we are.  According to the eps your 15 day total snow mean is approaching 2.5"

Just make sure you post pics!

1" total snowfall mean over the next 15 days on the eps.

#pattern/change_gonna_rock