buckeye

19 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The east coast establishment should have known better when the nino started coming in basin wide. I hoped one wouldn't form for this very reason(and I fell short on that one). The 2002-3 analog crap was stupid when you look at the 2002 fall and compare it to the 2018 fall, which created "cold" in totally different ways.

JB has been riding -02-03 HARD....often putting up verification maps to bolster his claim that it's a remarkable analog.    Heh, then again he's thrown 77-78 out there too....hell that's blasphemy.

I often wonder if anyone ever verifies seasonal analog forecasts after it's all said and done.   Every fall we get all these analogs being thrown at us....I wonder how many actually pan out?   Personally I think analogs are a crock and for pure entertainment.   When you think about how microscopic the sample size is, (going back 100 years or whatever), it's kind of a joke. 

4 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

After years and years of following the weather....I have seen this play out many times. Persistence...more times than not...rules the winter. Sure, there are exceptions..and maybe this will be the winter.But, if I had to wager right now....my bet is that January will be little different than what we have seen in December. For all the rejoicing about long range modeling, MJO cycles, SSW events, SOI and ENSO showing a cold, snowy pattern in January....the models are now beginning a retreat. The optimistic are shouting the delayed....but not denied credo. I have adopted a perverse acceptance of fate... and even getting a mild laugh at the Mid Atlantic weenies (home of the forum's most neurotic and pessimistic) as they begin their march towards the cliff. I hope I am wrong....but my bet is already placed.

From the glass half full stance, I guess it's possible that the pattern from November could kick back in mid late Jan, so that's on the table.    I guess it really is too early to start writing winter's obit, but there has been so much hype about this winter, (east-centered especially).  It's not just the level of hype that was striking but the almost unanimous agreement among private forecasters.   If this winter turns out to be anything less than 'good'....mediocre ain't gonna cut it.... it will be the biggest widespread winter forecast bust in my many years of being an internet wxweenie, especially for the MA and NE.

That being said, there's still a couple of weeks to start turning the ship and saving things.

47 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Yay, more rain today and NYE. When/if this cold air ever gets here, is there any doubt it’ll turn dry?

Winter of yore....

....worst nightmare.

Kidding aside, I'm with you, we are in the midst of my favorite time of year to get hammered with snow and once again....here we are. 

I did clean up leaves in the yard yesterday though....so there's that. 

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

2 runs in a row of nearly pitching a shut out for snow here locally. Warm and dry, rain, cold and dry. It is just going to be a winter like that.

What amazes me is the lack of 300hr+ fantasy storms and polar vortex visits the gfs almost always spits out this time of year.  We can't even score the proverbial weenie on a stick.

Not sure if that's good or bad.

5 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Go away.

Can't even imagine moving to a location based solely on lake effect snow and then seeing that latest gfs run.  You're bitterness is both justified and forgiven.

6 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

15-20 days post ssw is usually the lag time. I would say probably more around the 10th, something more snowy and permanently colder comes into focus. I suspect the models will weaken cold shots as they get closer which is the MO of this winter.........this trend will last until the ssw triggers winter in the east and a legit pattern change that will last 2-4 weeks. Wouldn't be surprised that February doesn't have a Strat cooling, which is good for a warm march.

from your keyboard to God's ears....especially the warm March thing

2nd wettest or possibly wettest on record for CMH and yet no flooding or extremes that I can recall.

20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I could end up with 100" and I still wouldn't be able to give this winter a top grade.  Losing December stinks.

Agree.   I can't recall the last decent December snow event....not to mention one over the holidays.   So damn sick and tired of winters that drag on through March and April.   Hopefully winter appears in a couple of weeks, let's loose snow and cold for 3 or 4 weeks then gets the hell out.

21 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

I noticed that as well, for almost week they have been showing a strong cutter and now shifted quite a bit south which is a welcome site. Although certainly dont think this will be the last move. Also note is the GFSV3 which ha sbeen consistently further south for next weeks storm is now where the GFS has been so basically trey flipped.  Anyone care to share what the Euro doing no longer have access?

 

 

Euro has a system around 168 that goes from south dakota to n. minn.   Then is looks ready to go bonkers with a deepening trough in the central US and a pressing cold high from the north at 240.   Verbatim, the euro looks to crush someone beyond 240....but hell, extrapolating the euro beyond 240 is like extrapolating the nam beyond 84.

edit:  looking at the other maps for 240 euro...looks more like a progressive system that would probably hit well east and south of us.  So the quick answer is first one misses all of to the nw and the next one misses all of us to the se.  Merry Christmas

On 12/15/2018 at 5:22 PM, osubrett2 said:

As of 4pm, CMH received 0.84” for the day and the YtD total now stands at 53.38”. Only 1.59” needed in the next 16 days to top 2011 as the wettest year on record. 

Ruh roh....2011-12 winter analog unfolding. 

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I disagree that late February into March is difficult to get a good snowstorm in the lower lakes. That is not at all the case, however obviously a snowstorm at that time of year, while still enjoyable, won't have the lasting effects. This time of year a snowstorm makes me think, nice we can lay down a nice long snow cover as long as we avoid a torch. By March the Sun angle does increase the melt of the snowpack

Agree, hell Feb is basically the dead of winter and the way our winters have been going, Feb is like the new December.

17 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Ohio also seems to be prettier overall than Indiana. I haven't seen any parts of Indiana that's as pretty as the southern parts of Ohio. Come to think of it, out of all the states I've visted, and I've visited many, Indiana may be the least interesting in terms of natural beauty. 

You've obviously never been to North Dakota.

Ohio is pretty flat and boring from about Central areas north and west.   The southeastern half of Ohio isn't too bad.  In fact the Hocking Hills area is probably the prettiest.   If you were blindfolded and dropped off in some of the natural points of interest in the Hocking Hills, you'd be shocked to know you were in Ohio.

22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There are, though you can find plenty of trees in parts of southern Indiana.

Southern IN,  around Bloomington is actually pretty nice.   Central and northern IN, ummmm uh well not so much.   I do love Michigan and I've been to GR many times.   My wife and I discuss getting a cabin somewhere sometime eventually and I often bring up Lake Michigan shoreline in northern MI as a fav place.    Of course she is a beach bum and can't understand my insane, illogical love of snow.   Quite frankly I don't get it either.

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hot off the press from donsutherland.

 

Main takeaway: Winter 2018-19 remains on track to see above to much above normal snowfall in the Great Lakes Region, Middle Atlantic Region, and southern New England.

Don won me over during the winter of 2011/12.    I remember I was in Hawaii in early January and every mornng I was checking the weather back home to see what it would be like when I got back.   I remember most forecasters like DT were touting a pattern change to much colder later in January and into February but Don was adamant that winter was essentially over and there would be no pattern change or any incoming sustained cold.

We all know what happened....   huge win for the Don.

This year I'm rooting for Roger Smith's forecast to verify.  He's calling for a cold snowy period from mid Jan to mid Feb and then winter exiting quickly and early.   That would be my perfect winter.    Unfortunately he is  the only forecasters I've seen calling for an early end to winter.  Most want to keep the cold going into April...ugh.

3 hours ago, dilly84 said:

I see the 0z Canadian throws us a Christmas Eve bone. 2-4" of snow. One can hope.

We've never had shortages of bones being thrown at us.....we get boned all the time by the models.    Our problem is getting one with some actual meat.

5 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

Below is the 12z iteration of the GFS on New Year's Day. This points out the difference between our subforum rationally discussing the possibilities and the EC out on a 300+ hr GFS op run, FV3 or otherwise.

 

 

 

 exactly

Can you imagine what the ratio of digital bytes spent to inches of snow received is over there by the end of a winter season?  My God the paragraphs and paragraphs explaining, disecting, and atmospherically anal-probing a 10 day pattern that ends up yielding nothing.   Then the same guy that writes a 4 paragraph post complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's excited about the upcoming 3 week pattern, turns around the next day and writes 4 paragraphs complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's ready to punt the next month.  

Very different atmosphere in the MA forum winter thread.  Apparently the euro weeklies show a 09/10 snowmaggaedon Jan/Feb pattern, and JB is even calling it Jan/Feb 78esque....

That snowmaggaedon period between late Jan and mid Feb 2010 dumped something like 30" of snow here in cmh...so that wouldn't suck.

Just when I thought the gfs had bottomed out and couldn't get any worse....

The 6z came out.  

Soul crushing.   We just came off weeks of below normal temps and days of flakes flying around.  Now we'll watch a 989 low slowly travel from central WV to 983 over CLE and nothing but rain followed by a few backend flakes.   

This is why I root on torches in winter.

45 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

12z GFS and FV3 GFS are looking very stormy a week or so out.  Things are definitely looking up.  

This is the time of year I really get excited about getting some good snow....I hate green Christmas's.     I always look for patterns or trends to set in at the beginning of the season and one of the disturbing ones I've noticed is that storms seem to be warmer as they get closer in time.  We've had several decent looking LR snow events for the sub in which the snow sector begins to get smaller and the rain becomes more dominant as the timeframe shortens....(this weekend for instance), and now next weekend as well.

Hopefully this won't be a repeating theme.   Last couple of years the theme was strong storms in the long range turning into to weak sauce in the short range.

On another note I'm dubious about all of this SSWE talk.   I keep wondering why, if all the ingredients were already there for the winter forecasts to showcase a cold/snowy JFM, than why is everyone riding the SSWE like it's going to be a winter savior?..... I thought the winter was already saved by enso, indices, and analogs? 

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

WV is kind of in between IMO but there are definitely some south mixed in. Maybe S IN/OH KY/WV is the mixing zone. The 'sleet' area

from my experience it doesn't matter if it's Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, etc....

....every state has a 'lil bit of "WV" somewhere in it.

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I know it's been a day since you made this post, but out of general curiousity, what indications favor this occurring?

Don't encourage him

19 minutes ago, Michigander said:

Yes it failed us for November and December if I remember correctly.

it's stuck on torch default mode.    I think the govt uses it primarily to garner support for carbon taxes.

1 minute ago, Michigander said:

Everyone and EVERY FORECAST except CPC?

that model is a joke

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

02-03

That analog is probably the most touted one out there this season.

If we hadn't been on the slop side of that xmas storm,  that would probably be a top 3 winter for me....considering we scored huge with the president's day storm that year.