buckeye

On 11/6/2018 at 5:30 AM, michsnowfreak said:

You have to go back to 2012 to get average December snowfall here.

2017: snowy (5th snowiest)

2016: snowy (14th snowiest)

2015: low snow (6th least snowy)

2014: low snow (2nd least snowy)

2013: snowy (20th snowiest)

 

What's interesting is that the snowy December of 2013, which would be snowy in most winters, would seem like a meek onset to the most severe Winter we had ever seen here. The low snow of December 2014 was an absolute train wreck of a month as a whole, but ended up completely lost in an otherwise severe Winter, plus it followed The historic Winter the year before.

You might have just jinxed yourself 

On 11/10/2018 at 2:19 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's my winter call for ORD.  

Temperatures (DJF):  near to below average... 0 to -2

Snowfall (first to last flake):  below average... 25-35"

There's the usual caveat about one very big storm pretty much ruining a call for below average snow.  I'd gladly be wrong on the snow part.  

Interested in seeing LOT's winter forecast and if it looks anything like mine lol 

NE and MA subs are licking their chops.  Haven't seen a single winter forecast that isn't a weenie's dream for them.  Even Don S is as bullish as I've ever seen.

Meanwhile the forecast for our fly-over sub is kinda non-descript...lol.  It'll be interesting to look back after the last dirty patch of ice melts and see how it all worked out.

Wasn't it DT who said, (when it comes to forecasting), if everyone is thinking the same thing....no one is thinking.

Pretty weak system regardless of track....pos tilted trough.... and marginal temps equals slushy inch on cars and grass at best.    I'm more excited about the warm up that's starting to show on the models after this cold shot 

7 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Who knows, maybe we'll get a genuine crowd-pleaser this year. I may be mistaken, but it's been a while since we've had a share-the-wealth style event. The drought has to end sometime, all it takes is one storm...

Early January '99 was probably the most wide spread share the wealth event I can recall, even though the Chicago area got the brunt.     Large sprawling area of antecedent arctic air with a moisture bomb coming out of the Gulf.   Track of low didn't really effect precip type, (low tracked west of us), because by the time mid levels warmed, 90% of the precip ended.   Usually when you get a set up like that a lot of folks get screwed with a sleet storm.

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

2000-01 is another one.  It flipped to crap in January but it's pretty hard to forget that December.  Generally speaking though, I don't disagree with michsnowfreak's point, especially among the general public.

I beleive that January ended up being a record warm January for many of us too.     The '89 flip also went from record cold in December to above normal in January.   

The infamous JB rubberband breaking theory on full display.

Then there was Dec 1989, BRUTAL cold hitting -18 here at the climax.   Then the calendar switched to January and winter disappeared, never to truly return.   

In that instance, that December was so cold it almost overshadowed the rest of the mild months.

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You can still have a good winter overall with a bad December.  Just makes it harder to have a historically good winter.

Of course you can, but I'm getting really hungry for a winter that starts in December and ends earlier.   March and April of this year were horrible.

Although I don't think he's released a winter forecast yet, good ole Coz makes a pretty bold claim:

"...you will have to wait until the last week of December, and possibly beyond, before you get get yourself into winter mode in U.S. locations".

Seems to be referring to the eastern US and his reasoning being placed on anemic signs of any good blocking thru Nov and Dec.   We shall see, most forecasts I've seen are pretty bullish for winter in the east.

13 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It really surprises me that big snowstorms are not more common along the I-70 corridor. You have the Gulf to the south that brings in copious amounts of moisture and usually temps are pretty cold here in winter. You would think moisture and cold air would combine more often.

The Ohio River valley is the perfect geographic WTOD glide path for storms coming out of the SW.   It really requires a perfect balance between storm strength, cold air available, and track.

33 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

The blob is back (they are calling this one blob junior) and Anchorage hasn’t had a freeze yet. Have to watch to see if the blob hangs on and what condition it’s in by the end of November to see if it will be a factor for us this winter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/18/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-blob-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-wild-winter-lower/?utm_term=.e9782ecb9033

Not always a good thing to see this stuff show up 2 months before the scheduled party....or maybe it locks in?

Welcome back Steve.  Hopefully this thread remains quiet thru Nov since I'm a big fan of warm dry Novembers.   Then we start rocking around Dec 18th.  Carry that thru January, and close up early in Feb.   There, I just put my order in for winter 18-19 ....a man can dream.

That winter started out frustrating for CMH with the Xmas Eve storm that had us on the warm side, but ended strong with the president's day weekend storm that gave us 15".  

When all seasonal forecasts seem to point in the same direction, they usually end up being wrong.  Right now the consensus favors southeast portions of sub to the coast.....we'll see.

About 2 or 3 weeks ago I was listening to our local wx guru, Jym Ganahl.   It was a particularly warm day and the projected high was expected to top 80.  Jym proclaimed it would be our last 80+ degree day for 6 months.  

We've had several 80 degree days since then and tomorrow's forecasted high is an amazing 86 degrees.    

Nice work Jym! 

22 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

With the euro doubling its runs, I'm going to have to make a real effort to get up and exercise or do something else once in a while.  I already get too stuck in my computer chair during tropical/winter storm action.

There use to be that dead time in model runs after the 6z GFS and before the 12z nam.   Then again after the 18z GFS and before the 00z nam.    Damn, this is going to be like giving alcoholics 4 day weekends.  

16 minutes ago, Animal said:

Don’t be so dramatic.

i would be shocked if scared son’s parents home is wiped out.

Pretty sure this "scared son" is not concerned with the house being wiped out or injury or death as a direct result of the hurricane itself.   The issue is they are both close to 80 yrs old and I believe they have no concept of the prolonged hardship they will face in the weeks following the storm.    

My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community.  Their lot is 28 feet above sea level.   They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors.  I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them.  My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo.

Rain is about the only type of weather I'll take a pass on when it comes to extremes.   I'm glad to see the euro in the 3-4" range...yea it's nothing to sneeze at but it also doesn't quite meet my threshold where I have to start camping out in the basement watching the sump pump and floor.       

On 8/31/2018 at 9:27 PM, IWXwx said:

You're right about the short range models and the same thing happened in Southern IN this afternoon where a cluster of storms blew up and dumped heavy rains over a few counties this afternoon even though nothing was modeled. It's setup where if a butterfly flaps its wings.....

Early morning I fired up the HRRR to see what to expect for jobs today.   Showed scattered showers developing well north of us in early afternoon.   As I sit here at 10am cluster storms blowing up right over top and to our sw....latest HRRR still shows nothing.   

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I have not seen the Orange one yet, but I saw the yellow one in the store the other day as I was in the check out line so I flipped through. For our region it does show warm and wet with temperatures above normal for each Winter month but it also notes that snowfall will be near normal with several snowy periods. When I used to be more into the almanacs than I am now, I found that the Orange one was better. And no I'm not saying that because it shows a cold snowy Winter lol. When I say better I'm talking about their overall synopsis and summary, obviously the individual days are a guess.

gosh, I'd hate to be the almanac forecaster in Chicago.... they are riding the border between "biting cold" and "teeth chattering cold".    The repercussions between one or the other verifying could wreak havoc on the preparedness of such a large population center.    I'm not even going to speculate on the consequences of 'plentiful snow' vs. 'snowy', 

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Thanks! The downside to this field definitely is way more grads than jobs and a fairly high likelihood of having to move off the bat.  Ohio is not rich in met jobs...two NWS offices that you likely won’t get into without a masters or years of experience, and AEP which is almost the same thing.  I don’t count broadcast jobs because that’s a whole other beast that I had no interest in touching. 

I’ll certainly try to peak in this winter.  I won’t work 168 hours a week, hopefully. 

I also need to correct myself and apologize to OSUbrett2 and wxdudemike .....2 Ohio mets that do contribute here.    They just tend not to be as prolific in the posting department as some of the others.

11 hours ago, OHweather said:

 

  With moving to Jersey and starting the job in July this summer has flown by for me.  Luckily most of the East Coast doesn't really get wintry threats quite as early as the Great Lakes can.

I just saw this.  Noooooo! You've left us!  Ugh Ohio is back to having no pro met representation on the board, ( kind of crazy when you think about it). 

Anyways, good luck to you and belated congrats!

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree it's too early. It's all speculation at this point. Naturally the mainstream public will hear thepathetically watered and dumbed down story that an el nino is likely so that means warmer and drier than normal Winter. But obviously tons of factors come into play. Snowfall has been on the uptick here so there's no reason to believe it won't be at least an OK Winter unless very strong signs start to point otherwise.

I'm with you.  I'm also not sold on the weight often given to enso state alone, (not to mention the difficulty of being able to predict the correct enso state for the upcoming winter months in advance).

Safe call here in Central Ohio is a nickle and diming, (with a 50 cent piece maybe thrown in), to end up with an average snowfall winter.   Another yawner but not necessarily a ratter.

14 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

east/central based Modoki's with a collapsing -QBO can be pretty warm early on(with periods of cold shots of course) in the cold season and move cold/arctic as you near February. If a Modoki does not form and it ends up neutral.........that could be a problem as it undercuts STJ strength, especially after a La Nina period. We saw that go down in 2001-02 for not so pleasant results for some of us(though, I will readily admit the late January 2002 storm was fascinating, even in the warm sector in Columbus........).

I wish the ENSO would make up its mind. We are in late August and things are still ironing themselves out. If we could get a good read there, that would narrow down some variables.

Don't recall late Jan 2002 storm.   I'm usually pretty good with remembering the good ones, although my aging mind tends to blur specifics.   

So I know we don't have an official winter of '18-'19 thread started yet, probably because we tend to be one of the more grounded subs on this site...lol.

But glancing around I see the NE folks are starting to drool with talks of how great things are starting to look for them....and yet it's the beginning of August and 4 months out from met winter beginning.     Only thing I'm sure of is that political outcomes and winter forecasts have about the same verification chances when the predictions are made months in advance.   

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