buckeye

Man...EVERYONE....EVERY forecast....has Xmas thru spring training as Katy-bar-the-door-for-jo-mama's-winter-of-yore

and now the glide path to our incoming ice age gets a last minute lube job courtesy of our good ole friend the sswe.

What could possibly go wrong?

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

As the garden type variety of snow fan whose forecasting abilities are that of whatever shows up as green and blue on tropical tidbits, I'm flabbergasted. I can't decide if this is an elaborate joke or if it may actually be a thing, simply because "hopefully it's stronger than 1978" is not a common phrase, and we're so far out still.. my mind is swirling with the possibility. This IS my green brownie

I can't recall if it was last year, or even more embarrassingly, 2 years ago, but Jeb graced us with his winter forecast for the lakes and OV.  It painted a winter that made 1977-78 look like 2011-12.  Other than that it was spot on.

15 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

So you are saying it was just bad luck that I saw 8" of snow in GA last December and the biggest snow I saw in IN was 4" last winter ?

anomaly?....sure.    luck?....that works too.    Why what's your explanation?

30 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Then Indiana's suicide rate should be much higher

lol...

my daughter who graduates grad school from IWU this spring would concur 100%.   We make fun of her when she starts having one of her 'I can't stand this place' rants...

we actually call them her  'Marion Meltdowns'  

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

Seems legit

yea I checked the ensembles.   Out of 51 solutions....  the OP is the only one that has that lol.     I will say this, the euro has been hellbent on putting a small pocket of heavy snow over someone in the lakes, OV, or MW for the last several runs for that timeframe.    My guess is by the time we finally get a storm the cold air pool will continue to shrink and it'll be pretty much a big rain event.

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

One thing I love about the south is that EVERY snow event is a big deal. It's snowing lightly here right now and could see some light accumulations and nobody is even talking about it. That's what I don't like about the midwest. In the south, snow is more fun. You go so long without seeing snow, that you appreciate even the slightest bit of snow. I think people up here take the smaller events for granted and don't appreciate it enough.

...incoming wrath of Josh in t minus 10...9...8..

42 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Unsubscribe. 

ouch...you win.   You should be granted a get-out-of-banning-free b*tch card good for the entire upcoming season.

On 12/2/2018 at 4:44 PM, pondo1000 said:

Looks like mid-Atlantic COULD get some significant snow next week. Again, before central Ohio. This area sucks. I miss the winters back east north of Philadelphia. 

We average slightly more snowfall than philly and their nw burbs.  When I lived there in the early/mid 70's it was a joke for winter weather.   I moved to Ohio right after that in the late 70's and thought I had moved to Alaska.    It's all perspective and sometimes you can luck out with a great stretch of winters over many years, (see Detroit), or a bad stretch too, (see Indy).   Those areas will reverse as climo eventually always wins out.   

It does seem the midatlantic has had a stretch of winters lately that feature at least one good storm ....but they have also gone many years in a row with nada.   You look at the snowfall totals for midatlantic cities and it's deceiving.   It's like they'll go 7 years with 12" and then get 2 years in a row with a 30" noreaster.   Quite honestly, as I get older I'd probably prefer that winter climo over endless subfreezing days and nickle and dime snowfalls, ie Central Ohio.     

But in the end snow melts....  congestion, rude people, and high taxes don't.   

19 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue. 

ummm yea, it pretty much is the issue.

I wish my car performed like a lamborghini....I understand it's a honda,  but that's not the issue. 

On 11/25/2018 at 7:57 PM, zinski1990 said:

We all definitely know the feeling here in Indiana. I swear sometimes winter storms just love to mess with this state. Try being in central Indiana where like it seems like 2/3s of the storms always decide to play the north or south I 70 game. Central Indiana is a big snow repellant. Hoping this winter is finally our turn

Here in Central Ohio, we are your brethren in pain.   As tough as we've had it, I know it's been even worse for you guys.   We can at least score a little with noreaster fringes from time to time and even some Lake Michigan fetches.   For you guys to get a really good windy ole fashioned snow storm, you need it to pass over us coming due north out of the southeast and TN valley.....a very rare track the last several winters.

What we folks in the i-70 snow death corridor need is a moisture bomb out of the gulf, fighting a stout arctic high over the lakes ( and the arctic high managing to stand it's ground).

3 hours ago, HighTechEE said:

Was he the replacement for Joe Holbrook?  We lost him 3 yrs ago at the age of 87.  Grew up watching him on ch10 and Jim Ganahl & Ben Gelber on ch4.

No, there was someone after Holbrook, but he was a local legend as well.   I'm wondering if it was Mike Bettis he replaced, (yes same guy on weather channel), but he might have worked for ABC here too.   Of course us old timers also remember the days when Larry Cosgrove was the chief on air met at the local ABC channel here in Columbus, (circa 80's).

Speaking of Holbrook, I thought this excerpt in a story about him as a forecaster here during the blizzard of '78 was funny:

Legendary 10TV meteorologist Joe Holbrook was closely monitoring the storm in WBNS' weather office. In the age before the Internet, local television meteorologists would go outside to check the station's thermometer for temperature, an anemometer for winds and barometer for pressure. Joe thought it was odd that the barometer reading had sunk close to 28 inches. He tapped on it thinking the needle was stuck. It did not move.

...ya think? lol

Ganahl is still here.   Although Ganahl is a part-timer at channel 6 now and I'm not sure how much Gelber is still doing.   

So general concensus backed up with euro weeklies is a pretty cold and stormy 2 to 3 week period followed by a relaxation, (just in time for xmas of course )....then we see how long and what happens next.

Things definitely look primed for an early season event or 2 for the sub before any relaxation occurs.

For the Columbus area weenies, sad news, WBNS announced Chris Bradley has entered into hospice.   Prayers for him and his family.  He was a great on -air met..  A true snow weenies at heart and way too young

2 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

You have more snow on the ground on November 19 than the vast majority of the subforum will have at any time this winter.

Not that it matters, snow is snow, but I wonder what percent of annual snowfall there is synoptic.  Probably hard to know since synoptic storms also get the lake involved.

6" for columbus = bad run

I thought I read the euro was going to have an 06z and18z run.  If so when does that happen?

starting to wonder if calls of an above average December, (temp-wise), 

....are gonna be in trouble.   

Mild signals keep falling apart as we progress into late November with no long term signs of any moderation setting in.  An early winter was not in the cards for a lot of the forecasts I've read.    The fasten seat belt lights and the oxygen masks just dropped on LC flight 2018-19 

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ongoing TT upgrade made me realize how much I've come to rely on them.  Probably the model site I use the most, although I pretty much only use COD to look at models such as the HRRR/RAP. Funny how that is.

I like TT for the 500maps.    WxBell 500maps not so much

4 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

You are like a grumpy ole’ man any more! LOL

pondo's alive!

oh trust me I'm still a happy dumb weenie when it comes to tracking the big ones.  I'll never stop model watching for the next memorable winterstorm....I just have far less tolerance for our usual pennies, nickles,  and stretches of cloudy frigid weather.   Blech

Besides it's a money thing too.  The less ability for us to get outside and do our thing, the less cashflow there is....which is why a 'green' winter for me truly means a 'green' winter 

Let me sum up this way when it comes to winter:     Bury me...torch me...or leave me the hell alone 

18 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Yea, it's probably a foregone conclusion at this point, it's going to be more average to slightly above after Thanksgiving. Hopefully things snap back soon.

I don't know, maybe it's the snow on the ground right now or maybe it's, (as you mentioned), a subtle trend for the models to continually tamp down long range warmth,

either way I'm getting a sinking feeling that we are staring down the barrel of a snow and cold weenie's dream winter for the sub.  Unfortunately for me, I'm not nearly the excitable winter weenie I once was, it figures.

Top 5 for me in Ohio.  What makes a storm memorable to me has more to do with it's effects on my world, how much of a 'surprise' it may have been, and how well it stuck in my mind.

counting down from 5:

5.)  January 1996 HECS here in Central Ohio.   Around 10-12", but what made it memorable was the fact that it was totally missed by the models and the local forecasters...even the morning of when the forecast was a dusting to an inch.   It was a total nowcast event.   I wonder if that could ever happen again with today's models.

4.)  March '08 - Strictly a snow quantity thing, 22".   I don't think it ever hit true blizzard criteria but the duration and amount of snow was memorable.  It also stuck around for a good two weeks as unusually cold temps set in for the rest of March.  

3.)  February President's weekend 2003 - 15 inches.  Another one that was a surprise, (tends to have happened a lot with eastcoast-centric storms), especially the second part of it which was originally suppose to go south of us but started trending north on the models only about 24-36 hours out.  Came as two back to back storms.  Friday night into Saturday, then a break and Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.   

2.)  December '04 - Was suppose to be rain to mix to rain.   I woke up that morning and it was snowing and clearly the arctic front had pushed further southeast than expected.   Gave us a snowstorm, followed by an ice storm, and then an arctic outbreak that kept all the ice and snow well intact through Christmas.  The deliniation and distance between historic snowfall, icestorm, and plain rain was insane....literally about 2 counties wide and we were right in the middle of all of that.

1.) The grandaddy from which all future blizzards in Ohio will be judged, Jan.1978   if it wasn't for this one,  you guys wouldn't know who buckeye is, (so now you all have something to blame ).  This was the storm that piqued my interest in weather.  I was in 7th grade at the time.

On 11/14/2018 at 1:25 PM, Jonger said:

Every single model run has reduced the torch. It's clearly not going to be anywhere near the previous forecast.

I don't care about tropical signals or any other index, those only matter until they don't matter.

Will be interesting to see what happens.   Lots of mixed signals....first it looked torchy...then it looked like we may keep ballz to wallz cold/cool into December...now there are hints of somewhere in between.   FWIW today's 12z euro has mid to upper 50's back into central and n. IN/OH the weekend after Thanksgiving and a much more stormy but zonal look overall.

Personally, this snow, sleet, freezing rain stuff today is too damn early as far as I'm concerned 

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Funny looking storm

Classic example of a textbook meterological reach-around.

On 10/13/2018 at 2:06 PM, Hoosier said:

I wonder if buckeye still reads JB.

Who am I kidding?

I did my usual.  Signed up and will carry it to March 1st.

I actually haven't been reading JB because right now I'm more interested in actual model output then reading JB's relentless pursuit and bias of cold and snow.   Once we get closer to the holidays and I actually put my weenie gear on, (and want cold and snow). I'll start reading and watching to feed my false hope.

I have no feeling of what to expect this winter.  I just know every year my desire for cold and snow gets more narrow and more focused around the holidays and January...with a greater desire for a very late mild fall and very early mild spring....and of course always chasing that mirage big dog storm.

Talk about a collapse of a system