BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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FWIW, the NAM initialized with a DP that was two degrees too high. Every degree matters tonight.
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I can name numerous similar events here to what’s depicted tomorrow. Now, it does mean all three slots in the slot machine line up but it can happen.
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And yet they still knew how to use the banter thread
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RGEM has a 6” stripe from basically lake norman through the triad and up into lower VA.
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Beginning to wonder if some of the modeling is catching on to the boundary layer not being as warm as expected?
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That mean just surprised me. It went up 3”.
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Good luck to y’all.
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I’ve been busy this afternoon so I’m catching up on some 12z and later runs. EPS jumped me up to a 4” mean in Davidson. Huh.
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Not only is there no warm nose at all on the RAP, we’re safely isothermal in my back yard.
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There is some strong lift showing up which could indicate banding which means some places could really score and some places get rain, just because of rates.
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Most of those use ratios that won’t be possible this week.
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Dont just throw out the RAP with the ptypes. I cant tell you how many times I've seen that model sniff out a warm layer when every other model is good to go. It's showing some very strong lift along 85 from ATL-CLT. We'll see.
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It stopped running around hour 13.
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Looking at soundings, the warm layer that is on the NAM isnt on the GFS. We're fighting the surface on the GFS.
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It looks like, locally speaking, the rain/snow line runs roughly from Lincolnton to Mooresville.
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The german model, which did really well last year, has this event as mostly snow.
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That has been one of my favorite analogs this week. Hell, we even played the Vikings that weekend too.
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RGEM looks maybe a bit lighter this run. Not much difference.
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A few other EPS means: Davidson: 2.6" Lexington: 3" Asheboro: 3.7" Raleigh: 2.5" CLT: 2.8"
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The mean on the EPS doubled for me this run to get me to 2.6”
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If I'm remembering correctly, that was forecasted as just a mix.
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That is the wheelhouse for you, me, grit and wow.
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Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of this tool on pivotal?
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Imagine you live in Birmingham and you see Montgomery get the snow the models are showing while Birmingham gets nothing.
