USCAPEWEATHERAF

Surface cyclogenesis beginning to take place over SE Coastline of Texas or just offshore as the primary low is weakening over central TX.

Joking

The dynamics cool the column from the top down.

Yeah white rain

The biggest difference, is that the best banding will occur in our region given that it is undergoing its most explosive deepening period as it passes to the south and east of ACK.

The thing is, this storm can offset its speed by strengthening quicker. It will give the feel of slowing down, but in reality it is still moving, 15 hours instead of 12 or 9. There is still a large difference between a 990mb low and a 979mb low on the benchmark.

Hey Jerry, big 8-16" swath from SE CT to BOS points southeast, with the higher amounts over the Cape.

No, we were expecting a Benchmark track this whole time, it isn't coming fifty miles west of the benchmark.

They really are

The 3 KM collocates extreme upper level divergence along with an intense jet streak over the Maritimes of Canada right as the storm takes its explosive deepening route. The explosive deepening occurs at the same time the shortwave goes negative tilted, and there is a chance our surface low gets a tad stronger in future runs throughout Saturday. Convection is likely a contributor. As the low reaches the SC and NC coasts it begins to interact with the baroclinic natural boundary with the Gulf Stream and continental polar air mass over the interior of Mid-Atlantic States. This boundary spells the deep maritime instability and warmth, with the polar air mass over to the northwest of the boundary. This is when the Gulf Stream can play tricks on the HIRES models and Global Models with a natural warm front taking place as the surface low emerges off the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Honestly a 978mb at the benchmark is still plausible.

Please

70-80mph gusts over the Cape Cod National Seashore and coastal waters. Damn! And the tamer gusts will be 60-70mph.

NAM and 3KM NAM are silly, the NAM is bit less intense with the surface low while the 3KM is 12 mb stronger on the benchmark. Dynamic cooling takes over and that is why it snows with the exception maybe ACK throughout the entire duration which is only 12 hours.

that shortwave down south really turns the corner and that amplifies everything downstream. I have fear we taint if it ticks any closer to ACK then the 3 KM NAM track. The more intense the surface low, the further east it has to be for the Cape not to taint, or mix.

I am sorry this isn't changing or mixing north of ACK.

Rain likely kissing ACK at hour 48, huge warm front from 925-700mb just south of the Islands at hour 48, very tight thermal packing and gradient, likely intense lift and heavy snow band.

I don't look at snow maps

8-16" is the range right now for the Cape and Islands

GFS, NMA 12km, NAM 3KM, CMC, RGEM, UKMET, and ...

12-18" seems possible at this moment in time for the Cape and Islands, I am not 100 percent confident yet, the 12z EURO will aide in confidence one way or the other. 12z models came in zonked compared to the 00z pedestrian garbage. 6-12" from the Canal to the I-95 corridor and then 3-6" to the CT River and almost nothing west of there.

That is a garbage model, so are the SREFs

If somehow the low gets below 989mb before reaching the benchmark, there is a good chance a foot plus occurs for someone in the SE MA and RI region on Sunday. That FRONTO band is impressive, omega is elite in the DG zone.

We already knew that the eastern areas were favored this go around, especially the further southeast one is located in the region.

It is much better overall for the region dryslot

WE aren't in your area