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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Everything posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Bob, that is what I meant by phase, since I saw the H5 heights fall with the shortwave I thought there had to be a phase, but the shortwave was amplifying itself due to the negative tilt. That happened sooner.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    RAP and HRRR are trending towards a faster amplification of the southern stream disturbance as it reaches ACK's latitude.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yeah and the storm is very dynamic and is going through its best intensification phase at the same time its passing to our southeast and east. I was told, that in order to get the best bands to develop, you want to be on the northwest side of the surface low and H7 low tracks as the surface low is intensifying, preferably bombing out!
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Surface map and the surface pressure tendency maps suggests our surface low is developing southeast of Savannah, GA.
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Maybe amplifying is a better term to use, Deepening shortwave!
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    H5 current analysis - shows our shortwave is near neutral tilt
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Jerry, that shortwave will be phasing when it reaches the benchmark region. The surface low will be going through its best intensification process in that moment. It will seem like a slow down, and all the HIRES and globals are all snow for the Cape. ACK is a different story.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Even though the 2/6 NAM is further south with the track near the BM compared to the 2/5 run, it is a quite a bit stronger at the surface center
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Wiz, Kev, this storm is quite impressive down south. Numerous lightning clusters throughout the eastern Florida waters, over Florida and along the central and northern Gulf coast. Also the southern stream system is quite dynamic producing its own convection and lightning. Also, the system is being aided by two areas of vorticity merging. Our surface low is very broad with surface pressures in a large area of 1008-1010mb.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    They don't think the Outer Cape will snow much because it occurs during the day, and the warmer ocean layer will allow stronger warm air advection out ahead of the storm will preclude snow accumulating and they believe the storm will be robust enough to bring in warm air. I think the dynamics will offset the little warm layer at the boundary layer and instead the intense lift and best snow totals occur over the Cape. ACK will mix.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Don't pay attention to it, no guidance has mixing pass ACK.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    They must be blending with their surface observations down south and realize the models are not initializing this system well at all. That disturbance over AR and eastern OK and TX means quite the business, it is showing tremendous lift on the southeast flank.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I am not buying the rain this time, especially with the dynamics this system brings and the track it take. Now if it was southwest of me, then sure, but this is south and southeast of me, all snow for me. ACK might mix, I am not.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    That is the only reason I see why the Outer Cape would rain is the storm is stronger and produces a more intense low level easterly jet, but the dynamics offset any boundary layer warming as the models show that at 925mb the temps are below -3C and 850mb below -7C. That is plenty cold for all snow even on the Cape. Also omega approaches 40 microbars in the Dendritic Growth Zone (-12 to -18C).
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is an observation, looking at the H5 mesoanalysis page at H5, it shows the orientation of the northern stream trough being positive and the southern stream is east of the trough axis. Again, rain is not happening here, maybe CHH and the National Seashore, and maybe ACK for a bit, but the latest NAM guidance shows all snow.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    the freaking NWS just issued the updated statement with the WSW for the Cape, they are now expecting mostly rain on the outer Cape with 1-3" of snow now expected. What is the crap with this? Why such a warm forecast?
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Current 500mb charts on the SPC mesoanalysis page suggests that the southern stream system is out ahead of the northern stream.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    QPF 18z NAM
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Nope, mine does not
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The 1.5-2.0" line tickles Monomoy Island south of CHH. It also engulfs ACK!
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes it is, but it closes off at H5 southeast of NYC. Time for it to trend more intense.
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The trailing shortwave is slower which allows the southern stream to slow a tad and maybe amp more as it swings southeast of ACK.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    While the overall system is a tad southeast at H7 on the 18z NAM compared to the 12z, it is more amped and closes off a low southeast of NYC at hour 24
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    6-12" for the Cape and Islands, someone on the Cape and maybe the Vineyard will see the most persistent deformation banding that smokes them for the entire duration and we get an absurd total. That area is most likely Harwich to Hyannis, Sandwich to Bourne, or the Vineyard.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Our disturbance is digging southward over OK and TX. Our surface low is developing over the Gulf of Mexico. Convection is developing over the central GOM.
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