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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA.  The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place.  The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through.  Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them.  94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas.  People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system.  Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning.  Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95.  Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time.  And NAM is just getting into the frame of time.  Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough to turn the rain to snow for me on Cape Cod on Tuesday as a very cold airmass follows this system into the region, highs on Thanksgiving could lead to Ocean Effect Snows, but we all know how fickle that can be on the models.  Stay tuned!  Snow map tomorrow afternoon.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by.  Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.  However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August.  Now, why is this important?  During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this time of the year, this is leading to temperatures over 75F surrounding Cape and Islands, which allow the soupy presence of dew point air temperatures over 70F on the Cape.  This leads to some presence of instability, especially with a south wind.  Early on the morning of Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, I woke up several times in the morning around 6 am and 8 am tracking the thunderstorm complex that moved through the Cape and weakened with some light showers passing through.  As the time approached 8:30 a.m. Long Island had several water spouts develop south of the area over the open ocean as velocity couplets were present with radar indicated presence of water spouts.  They were moving towards the ENE at about 30-40mph.  What alerted me to a rather elevated and perhaps higher chance at severe weather, at least chance of damaging winds, was the extreme presence of high wind shear values in all significant levels of the atmosphere.  These levels were SFC-1km, SFC-6km, and SFC to 3km wind shear numbers.  Effective Bulk Shear of 60-65 knots over the Cape stayed there all day long as the front was slow to move southeastward off the coast.  Instability nosed into the area just as the cluster of storms was nearby, which turned into a meso-low influenced supercell that was moving from Falmouth, MA to Harwich, MA and Chatham, MA.  The Supercell and attendant mesocyclone moved through the mid Cape region, after passing north of Martha's Vineyard with gusts over 69mph, Kalmus, MA reached a gust of 90mph as the supercell matured even more and got more intense with the velocity scans showing an intense couplet that got tighter as it reached the Yarmouth, MA region as the radar first indicated a tornado on the ground.  A section of radar technology that was recently developed for tornado confirmation was the correlation coefficient.  This technology can detect debris in the air other than precipitation falling.  This CC radar indicated debris lofted into the air over Yarmouth, which wa likely the Cape Sands Inn roof that was lofted into the air from the touchdown of the first EF-1 tornado that peaked at 110mph over Yarmouth and Dennis, while it lifted back into the Mesocyclone.  Then minutes later the tornado warning was issued for Harwich and most of the lower Outer Cape, where the second tornado touchdown around 12:10 pm or later winds gusted over 110mph in my backyard as the circulation likely passed just over the forest of trees in my backyard.  There were two distinct wind bursts that occurred on my street.  The first wind burst occurred at much weaker state, about 30-40mph winds, this was winds out of the southwest, than the second more intense burst was likely the rear flank downdraft or the backside of the tornado circulation that passed northwest of my house.  These winds did the most damage in the area as they likely gusted over 110mph as we lost a lot of trees and some just snapped in half.  Parts of Harwich Center, MA about a mile down the street, suffered complete devastation.  Road closures, trees on homes, trees snapped completely in half with completely developed matured trees just snapped completely in half.  Brooks Park has a large forest of large healthy trees, it looked like a plane dropped an atomic bomb was released and detonated at 20 feet high off the ground and blew up the area.  Half the trees were completely snapped in half.  The town center area suffered utter tree damage that no one has ever seen before here.  It was chaos.  The emotions were just filled with utter sadness.  Fires engulfing homes, gas leaks and evacuations as homes and streets were deemed uninhabitable.  We had 18 minutes of lead time, my family and I went into the basement for the first in our lives as the winds occurred over our house.  Debris started flying and my family and I headed into the basement.  It was the scariest moment of my life.  Life is starting to get back to normal, we gained power back around 1 pm to 3 pm yesterday afternoon.  Almost a day after the tornado, we thank the local emergency and power officials for a tremendous job done so far.  Thanks for listening and taking the time to read my post.
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest.  Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F.  Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebound temp wise into the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows again in the mid to upper 40s.  Frost is possible the next few days across the interior of New England and the mountains of the area.  Monday will feature a warmer day than the weekend as a front approaches from western NY.  Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s maybe some locations nearing the lower to mid 70s perhaps for the last time until March, unless a period of Indian Summer reaches that mark again this winter season.  Perhaps the next time we see temperatures in the mid 70s will be late April early May 2020.  Monday will feature warm temps, but the return of high altitude cirrus clouds and then thickening clouds towards sunset and temps lowering no more than 60F in the overnight hours before the cold front passes through late Tuesday morning.  Temperatures will peak in the morning and then fall dramatically throughout the day into the lower 40s into Wednesday morning.  Wednesday through Friday appear to be the middle 50s for highs and lower to middle 40s for lows until the weekend features potential for another cold front that will bring rain showers and colder air for the weekend into the early week.  Stay Tuned!  We will likely see subtle changes in the coming days to the ten day forecast.
     - JWN Productions!
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside.  With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans.  After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list.  This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3" 220lbs or heavier along with Gordon 6'3" too and N'Keal Harry who is the tallest at 6'4" and 230lbs.  That gives them three large bodies, athletic WRs for Brady and the offense.  Along with a deep backfield, the TE position is missing one true TE from being a formidable offense this season.  Barring any further significant injuries, this team has the ceiling of a perfect season repeat.  I believe it is a dumb part of anyone in the prediction business to predict a perfect NFL season, even if the Patriots did it just 12 years ago.  It is possible, about a 12 percent chance.  I am still on track to deliver my predictions officially by September 5th, they should be posted then, but I will work between 29th to the 4th on this process.
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night.  Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues.  Could become significant if given time over water.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    Update!

    By USCAPEWEATHERAF,

    I will be working on my predictions for the NFL and NBA upcoming seasons the next few days.  I will have the final products by the end of the weekend.  Thanks!
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My novel is progressing, we hope it will be finished before November 1st, 2019.  We could get it published as soon as Spring 2020.  Fingers crossed!
    As for my NFL predictions release, that won't come until the first day of NFL games, which is two weeks from Thursday, September 5th.  I will release my thoughts than, stay tuned!
    Another thing, Josh Gordon is dealing with something far greater than substance abuse issues.  Most people who suffer drug or alcohol addiction are trying to mask the inner pain of an emotional loss.  Something either traumatic happened to them in the maturation process growing up, before the age of 30, or the loss of a personal friend or family member in which anger was pushed to the side and not dealt with head-on can cause significant mental health risks, such as depression and illness.  Our minds are so fragile, while also so strong, we still have no idea what over 80 % of the mind does for the human body.  That is amazing.  Josh Gordon I hope pulls through, not because of his tremendous talent that will help the Patriots, but because as a human being, we love success stories, underdogs, people who beat the odds of life and their circumstances to overcome the tragedy they face in life.  I want him to have that story.  A lot of people pull for someone trying to relinquish the demons he is fighting.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models in the long range, are beginning to show a winter like pattern beginning late OCT, sometime after the 27th.  In the next two weeks of OCT, warm air is settling in after our mid-week miller B storm center offshore of MVY sometime WED night.  Cold air will dump into the central Northern CONUS north of 40 north latitude.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business.  We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England.  While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts.  If the water temperatures are above normal in this location, than chances are there is a greater than normal chance at significant snowfall for the areas north and northwest of the storm's track, now if it is colder than normal the reverse impact, there is no real science yet to help determine if the Gulf Stream's impact's go beyond intensity of a winter storm and its precipitation outlook, storm track is just a chance of happening along the Gulf Stream, it is not a reason for the storms tracking the way they do, but what does is the positioning and intensity of several upper level features, like the +PNA ridge, and its location and amplitude, as well as the 50/50 -NAO low, and the Greenland Ridge of the -NAO regime, as well as positioning and potential for a colder than normal atmosphere, in a -AO polar Vortex location and amplitude of the arctic jet stream.  While there are factors we know about that impact the long duration indices of the NAO/PNA/AO, we don't know what the day to day and week to week levels of the indices will be determining the outcome of a winter storm's location, intensity, and impact.
    An active Sub-tropical jet streams are notorious in El Nino ENSO patterns, therefore I expect the Gulf of Mexico to have extreme precipitation changes, along with a strong chance for severe weather from Florida to the Carolinas.  It also appears the +PNA will poke its large head onto the Western CONUS during the winter months, allowing an amplified jet stream to impact the troughing over the eastern US, leading to numerous storm chances along the East Coast, now intensity, precipitation amounts, and track will have a lot to do with the -NAO/AO pattern too, those are accurately forecasted at this time, but for now I will have to say an active Jan - Mar will have numerous blizzard potentials.  All for an above normal winter for snowfall, especially from NYC to BOS.

  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots 4:25 p.m. EST time on Sunday, November 24th, 2019 could feature a rather nasty weather day for football.  The game is going to be played at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA.  A major coastal storm looks to track just west of the I95 corridor Saturday evening into Sunday night and could bring rather cool, rainy and windy weather.  Raw weather with temps in the mid-to-upper 40s.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today's 12z model runs showed a good sign that tomorrow's potent storm system might spare the game weather tomorrow for the Patriots and Cowboys meeting.  Given the 20z game time kickoff they could be spared the heaviest rains and a few showers might move through after the final horn.  Game temps will be raw, and nasty outside, cloudy and maybe misting.  40s for temps.
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    With the many arctic shortwaves present in the flow of the northern stream, the Arctic is opened for business but remains extremely hostile for any significant coastal storms to impact the region.  With the questions remain about phasing or not phasing streams in the split flow regime spells extreme instability in the model fields.  With this in mind, no snow midweek and the next weekend system remains in question and minimal at this time.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night.  The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W.  This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W.  Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the 40N:70W benchmark location which favors a heavy snow threat for Cape Cod and the Islands.  Even the HIRES NAM or 3KM Resolution NAM brings the surface low closer and throws over .3" of Liquid over CHH as the run does not go beyond 60 hours.  However, the storm will start within 48 hours of the 12z runs this late morning into the early afternoon.  Also water vapor imagery suggests that the northern stream is digging more southward in last few frames than what the recent 00z and 06z guidance even suggests.  We could see a sea/saw effect continue for the next day and then trends could be west towards 24 hours and closer to the onset of the precipitation.  For a bigger and more severe event, like talking blizzard potential, we need a stronger phase, a colder scenario and a much stronger surface low passing at the benchmark or just about 24 miles west of it.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Due to the presence of an -20C 850mb temp anomalies, we can expect the presence of ocean effect snow squalls, on NNW winds across most of the mid to outer Cape Cod, NWS BOX mentions 40% chance at snow over my head in Harwich, MA, and a chance at a few inches in localized areas.  Stay tuned!  As snow squalls, tomorrow night could also add to travel hazards.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period.  EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow.  I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS.  This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastline.  GFS is finally showing snow precip accumulating for CHH.  There is a strong potential for a storm center on the East Coast, but that is where the forecast departs on the model guidance.  Stay tuned!
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon.  Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now.  I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm.  This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, however, latest short-range guidance the HRRR and RAP 23z runs showing a potential for a deformation band to reach the South Coast of RI and MA.  Should this happen, amounts could vary through a dusting to as much as 6" or more, all depends upon where that band can setup.
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.
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