Jump to content

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,736

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple.  Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures.  By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November.  the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best.  Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hey everyone of Americanwx.com foruims,
    Today I inform you that my novel, 'The Dawn Awakening: Opening Segment" is being reviewed by a publishing company for potential publishing, keep me in your prayers, as we can get through the barrier of publishing.  Thanks, I will have another updated blog on Thursday when they make the decision.  Thanks!
     
    James Warren Nichols
     
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello folks,
    I am writing to you guys because its fun and a bit of an exercise short story for when I try to write short stories and get published in the future.  This practice short story is about a Blizzard of the Century deal where a catastrophic nor'easter meets the NE CONUS and the MW.  A storm as strong as the Greenland storms in the winter time.  A low as low as 925.4mb a category five hurricane pressure.  What would happen if a low bombed out to 925.4mb southeast of Nantucket, MA, how much snow would fall and how would it unfold in SNE.  I have a snowfall map from the Midwest Clipper and the Northeast Nor'easter coastal low.  Check it out and I hope it holds everyone off until the short story is finished.  Take care.
     
    James Warren Nichols
     


  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    By USCAPEWEATHERAF,

    A microburst potential exists on Tuesday morning as a screaming Low Level Jet with hurricane force winds possible for Cape Cod if the surface low travels over the top of the area.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog.  First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity.  It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean.  TS Emily grew from the same front yesterday and is now quickly diminishing in a midst of a shear and dry air.  Just as I thought from yesterday this area needed to be monitored as the area of frontal shear caused by a front in the GOM appears to be lessening now and is near 10-20 knots instead of 30-40 knots yesterday.  This shear should continue to drop according to the 18z GFS run yesterday afternoon.  This small area of low pressure is already well defined on satellite imagery this evening and appears to be gaining convection.  Depending upon if the convection is consistent and persistent will determine the tropical outlook on this system.  Next system of interest is a tropical wave currently in the MDR battling dry air to the north of it and the ITCZ influence to the south of it.  Shear is light to moderate, not enough to stop development, should become an invest tomorrow morning.  Stay tuned this system could become a threat to the lesser Antilles islands in the mid term.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The title is "A Wild Weekend to remember, a love story" there will be a continuation of Marie and Walter's weekend in the second short story and then a continuation of the story.
     
    James Warren Nichols, written by
    A couple, a love story.docx
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A major nor'easter/blizzard is imminent.  Blizzard of 2017 is on its way.  The northern piece of energy has made a US landfall over NW US at 18z yesterday afternoon or evening and this is the energy that we have been waiting for a sampling of and now that we got models adjusted stronger with the southern vort max  and northern vort max.  Now there are three jet streams involved.  The northern jet stream (AKA Arctic jet stream), southern stream (Pacific Jet) and the sub-tropical jet which situates over the gulf of Mexico, providing the system with a GOM low pressure center and moisture.  Ok lets get down to the gist of the models.  Models are somewhat different still in their handling of QPF, and storm track as well as intensity and they differ on degree of phasing between all three jet streams.  The models have trended stronger with the pacific jet stream energy disturbance over the northern Plains now.  this swings southeastward, and depending upon how far south it gets will help determine which model is correct as well as which storm track is correct.  On water vapor imagery, one can see a distinct area of vorticity spinning in the atmosphere, this is our southern stream (Pacific jet ) disturbance.  With its own moisture source from the Pacific and the Rocky Mountains not doing much to stop the moisture from entraining into the Northern PLains is dumping a good to decent amount of snowfall over the northern Plains towards Detroit, MI.  this energy is being forced to the southeast by a large arctic jet gyre or upper level low pressure system diving southward into the Great Lakes tomorrow morning.  This trough carries our southern stream disturbance up the east Coast combining with the GULF OF MEXICO energy and low pressure center combined to bring a singular coastal low pressure center that will be rapidly deepening as it head north-northeastward up the East Coast.  This earlier phase now expected to happen by most guidance models, is actually allowing the system to track more offshore rather than up the NYC harbor.  Benchmark track or Cape Cod track is the final question that needs to be answered.  I am going with a forecast mix of the GFS/EURO/NAM models.  Using the NAM for QPF output based upon the GFS progressiveness bias in these circumstances in which the storm is allowed to slow down due to the phasing of jets in which the large upper level low phases into the southern stream disturbance and slows it down before departing.  I think the low will move from the benchmark to about just east of ACK and CHH producing a mix of rain/snow for coastal Cape Cod and Islands therefore I have Nantucket in the 0-4" range and Harwich to Bourne in the 8-12" range, Chatham will likely see less with 4-8" of snow.  the GFS produces a ton of moisture but it falls over the ocean, this is bound to move over land, but where will help determine who gets how much, for now I will leave the 18-24" isolated 30" amounts in banding in the position it is in now.  Temperatures tonight will be in the low teens once again.  Tomorrow afternoon highs will be near 30F and lows will be near 20F, I don't see how a low 40s ocean warms an arctic air mass with a northerly component to the wind field over Cape Cod, but regardless my forecast carries a mix over Cape Cod therefore only about 8-12" will fall before the changeover.  Thunder snows and intense snowfall rates will be likely before the changeover occurs if it does at all.  the GFS is all snow except for about a changeover briefly of about .2" of QPF as rain.  That shouldn't matter much.  the other aspect to this storm is the wind damage and blizzard conditions.  I think blizzard conditions are likely even for Cape Cod and the NWS will likely issue a blizzard warning for us instead of a winter storm warning.  Hurricane force winds are likely for Cape Cod, Cape Ann and Nantucket and all along the NH and Maine immediate coastline.  Also Downeast ME sees only a few inches given that the low tracks west of them bringing in warm air off the ocean from the southeast.  Thank you



  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    NAM and its parallel model both show extensive potential for ferocious wind gusts on Tuesday late morning through the afternoon hours.  there remains a window of 6-12 hours where winds could gust as high as 105mph according to the NAM model.  Stay tuned for further updates.
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    March 11th 2017 605pm entry:
    Very cold air mass overhead the Northeastern US tonight.  temperatures for Sunday morning lows are around 10-12F over the Cape.  Forecasted temperatures won't break 25 the next two days Sunday and Monday.  This arctic air mass will be the reason we can expect a snowstorm to occur some time Monday night through Wednesday morning depending upon if the storm slows down at all, right now the 12z and 18z runs today show a progressive but easterly track with less phasing, although I don't think this is about a less of a phase.  While common knowledge dictates that the stronger the phase the further west the storm tracks is correct most of the time, the 18z GFS and NAM are both east of the 12z runs positions, and therefore show a faster transfer of energy between the clipper (primary) low and the coastal storm that takes over earlier on the latest guidance.  Given nature of the H5 trough, this should allow the coastal storm to intensify rapidly and be in the lower 970mb range, rather than the higher 988mb range the GFS has.  Therefore winds should gust between 70-90mph, 70mph if the GFS is right or 90mph if the stronger solutions are correct.  Remember the faster the transfer of energy between the primary OH Valley low and the coastal low off the coast of SC occurs, then the further eastward it will travel, I don't expect a far east track, but one down the middle of today's guidance, over the benchmark, east of ACK and CHH of around 970-980mb low pressure center producing a few feet of snow from DC to BOS with NYC to BOS receiving the mega amount of snowfall of around 24-30" of snow.  Coastal New England including Cape Cod should remain all snow and receive up to 34" of snow.  Those are my thoughts right now, subject to change.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    850mb temperatures will drop to near -30 to -40 C across the SNE region.  Cape and Islands could see a nasty band of ocean enhanced snowfall as a large upper low develops a surface low to the east of Maine and drops southeastward.  The location of this surface low will determine how close the band can get to the Cape and Islands later Friday.  With the massive cold pool aloft, winds will bring a ton of moisture, question becomes how strong will the lift become, and snow growth.  Right now, it is a toss up! DAMN!
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Subtle Adjustments can bring us from the dog pound to the Great White Hurricane!
    **2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Southern New England Weather Update**
    Simply put, the snow lovers across the region are at the mercy of the giant ridge over the Davis Straits and northern Canada territories.  The -NAO regime with a large 50/50 eastern Labrador vortex is currently running the weather pattern across the Eastern US.  It is dominating the weather scene.  Dry and cold arctic conditions we feel today are from a dominant northern stream where north westerlies at H5 are driving our weather.  The next few days will keep a cold and dry perhaps sunny regime over the region as clouds begin to infiltrate the South Coast of RI, CT and SE MA on Tuesday.  Light snows should begin to break out across western CT and should be shunted to the south thereafter with little if any impacts to the rest of the region.  This I can say with 60 percent confidence.
                The next stop is the 28/29th window in which a monster surface center will develop either off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, or the Delmarva peninsula.  We lack any confidence at this time to make a definitive forecast of any kind, whether it would be snow, rain, sunny skies or cold cloudy days.  We just have no confidence.  Seven-to-ten-day forecast is simple at this moment, highs in the mid 30-s along the Cape and Islands, and everywhere else below freezing for the next week until next weekend when a cutter could present itself if the block breaks down.  Again a lot of ifs and what’s until we get a better model consensus later down the road!
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello everyone from Americanwx Forums
    Tonight, I am announcing my official release date for my first novel, "The Awakening Dawn" (TAD)!
    The release date will be January 1st, 2021 (New Year's Day around noon EST)
    Hope you enjoy the novel on its release date, official cost ($0.99)
    Written by, and story created by James Warren Nichols (Air Force veteran - A1C E-3) discharged in 2012.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Weather folks love to use the Rocky Mountains and the Continental divide as the spacer between the western CONUS and eastern CONUS.  The NOAM pattern looks to be in full reversal from this past work week to the next few weeks.  The cold situates itself at peak performance in ten to twelve days.  The EURO, EURO ENS, GFS, CMC all show a strong signal towards a large +PNA/-EPO spiking ridge over the rocky mountains and the Canadian Northwest Territories.  This incredible ridge spike will create cross polar flow across the Arctic and North American Continent.  This flow comes straight southward from the Arctic Circle itself which will poor a strong connection of Sub Zero Celsius air all the way towards the Deep South.  This strong Air masses will allow the cold to settle in place across the northern half of the CONUS allowing Canadian Arctic High Pressure centers to move across Southern Canada and Northern USA allowing the NE CONUS to be subjected to multiple nor'easter threats.  Our first substantial potential powerful winter storm is Thanksgiving Week, Monday the 23rd, that is the signal at least this afternoon cycle 11/13 12z.  Again, there is no confidence in a ten day forecast, but today the pattern is showing itself to be a potential.  However, before that setup, a large deep arctic air mass will move overhead this upcoming work week from Monday to Thursday before a brief warmup before the real arctic pattern settles in after the 20th...
×
×
  • Create New...