dta1984
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Posts posted by dta1984
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I will remain on the cautious side. How many times over the past few winters have we been tortured with model runs 48 hours out promising the largest synoptic storm in 5 years only to wind up with another run of the mill 4-6" storm?
The drill goes as follows, storm pops up several days out and looks promising. Then in the 48-60 hour range the models have their most juiced up runs. The NWS and media start to hype up totals and watches go out. The next few runs drop QPF by 0.05" to 0.10", not noticeable until several runs stack up. By the start of the storm QPF is in the 0.60" range and we hope that ratios will help get totals close to 10". In the end the storm ends up being drier and less intense, ratios don't pan out and the storm total is 4-7" for most folks.
I'm setting my expectations for 5" with this storm. Call me a pessimist but the vast majority of "significant" storms that are modeled like this a few days out never pan out as significant as modeled.
I agree with setting expectations low. Its hard to not get excited though. When is the last significant synoptic event we've had?
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OHweather- do you have Euro qpf?
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Appears that small band hanging out in geauga county has a Huron connection.
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I'll try to get some more measurements later to help verify. There's a little less here in Solon, and its definitely lightened up here. Webcam at home shows it still ripping.
Nice surprise and appetizer for Sunday!
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Wow! I took 3 measurements and got between 7.5 - 8". Still snowing hard. NeOH what do you have?
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At home for lunch ...all snow here. Car said 31 degrees.
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We will have to hope the cracks help us out...but I won't count on it. Hopefully it will surprise us.
Sunday event has toned down a little, but we look to still be in it.
Huge flakes in Solon also. Looks like a thunderstorm on radar lol.
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-12 this morning when I woke up. Might have even been colder earlier on.
Curious how warm we get tomorrow. Either way cle mentions all snow tomorrow night and maybe a few inches.
Weekend storm still looking really good.
Edit; should add that -12 was from wunderground. Might not have been that accurate.
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I will be in NE Ohio this weekend and am liking the look on the models for Sunday. A little energy ejecting out of the southwest and partially phasing with a trough diving in. Enough to get a half decent storm, but a full on phase and Detroit cutter will be avoided unless the northern stream energy trends a lot slower. I have to drive back to OU at some point Sunday afternoon or evening, could be a sporty drive if the models right now have half a clue.
Hopefully you being in town will be good luck for us!
I saw on one of the snowfall reports that the airport only had a 1" depth. Everywhere else was much higher. Definitely a fishy report.
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Persistent light snow. Is this lake enhanced at all? The bands are coming from the north east where there might be some open water.
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Ya this snow is extremely fluffy. Measured 1" in several spots. Still snowing lighting.
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Nice. Thanks for letting me know. Not a bad snowfall at all considering.
You're welcome. Ya not bad at all. Curious how much fell to the south around Mansfield. Looks like that might have been the winner (as expected).
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Thanks for the snow update. I'm going with your snow totals since I'm out of town. So, you had 1.5" yesterday (evening), and another 2" last night?
Ok sounds good! Ya, the 1.5 would have been from Saturday night through sun evening since I wasn't here. 2" from yesterday evening through this morning.
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Had 2" since yesterday evening. A little surprised as the radar was looking bleek late last night. Still snowing lightly.
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I was surprised that the official forecast is only for an inch tonight. NAM, GFS, and Euro all suggest around 3" with much more to the south. With a tendency for these storms to bust low, can't blame a more conservative snowfall total forecast.
There will certainly be a tight gradient with this storm. Hopefully we get a little bit of a NW bump overnight.
Ya I am still hoping for some good wrap around tomorrow, but won't count on it. Looks like lake county is the cutoff point right now.
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Measured 1.5" of snow. That would be from last night up until now. Currently light snow.
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DTA - How much snow did you get this morning? I left my house at 5:30 and it was coming down with about .5"+ already.
I'm out of town in southern Ohio at the moment. I'll be back this evening and get a measurement. Looks like a winter wonderland on my webcam though.
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Yep, looks like the trends are south unfortunately. OHweather, what are your thoughts?
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Light snow most of this morning. Not really amounting to much, but nice to see.
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Measured 2" with some ice on top.
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Flake size seems to have increased compared to earlier this morning. There are some heavy returns out in Lorain and w cuyh counties.
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CLE optimistic for next week
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. IF MODELS
PLAY OUT AS THEY ARE SAYING...THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD BE A MAJOR
SNOW MAKER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AS ALWAYS...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
ONE CLOSELY.
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Seems high, but it would be nice to get an overachiever (relative to expectations).
Radar looked good earlier this morning, but everything slid south. Hopefully it's our turn tomorrow.
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With all the talk in other threads about a mild period I was hoping that would help melt some lake ice. Unfortunately, doesn't look like we'll be all that mild.
Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Since I measured early this morning, there has been an additional 2.25". I'm going to go with the lower end I measured this morning for a total of 9.75".