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dta1984

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Posts posted by dta1984

  1. I will remain on the cautious side. How many times over the past few winters have we been tortured with model runs 48 hours out promising the largest synoptic storm in 5 years only to wind up with another run of the mill 4-6" storm?

    The drill goes as follows, storm pops up several days out and looks promising. Then in the 48-60 hour range the models have their most juiced up runs. The NWS and media start to hype up totals and watches go out. The next few runs drop QPF by 0.05" to 0.10", not noticeable until several runs stack up. By the start of the storm QPF is in the 0.60" range and we hope that ratios will help get totals close to 10". In the end the storm ends up being drier and less intense, ratios don't pan out and the storm total is 4-7" for most folks.

    I'm setting my expectations for 5" with this storm. Call me a pessimist but the vast majority of "significant" storms that are modeled like this a few days out never pan out as significant as modeled.

    I agree with setting expectations low. Its hard to not get excited though. When is the last significant synoptic event we've had?

  2. -12 this morning when I woke up. Might have even been colder earlier on.

    Curious how warm we get tomorrow. Either way cle mentions all snow tomorrow night and maybe a few inches.

    Weekend storm still looking really good.

    Edit; should add that -12 was from wunderground. Might not have been that accurate.

  3. I will be in NE Ohio this weekend and am liking the look on the models for Sunday. A little energy ejecting out of the southwest and partially phasing with a trough diving in. Enough to get a half decent storm, but a full on phase and Detroit cutter will be avoided unless the northern stream energy trends a lot slower. I have to drive back to OU at some point Sunday afternoon or evening, could be a sporty drive if the models right now have half a clue.

    Hopefully you being in town will be good luck for us!

    I saw on one of the snowfall reports that the airport only had a 1" depth. Everywhere else was much higher. Definitely a fishy report.

  4. Thanks for the snow update. I'm going with your snow totals since I'm out of town. So, you had 1.5" yesterday (evening), and another 2" last night?

    Ok sounds good! Ya, the 1.5 would have been from Saturday night through sun evening since I wasn't here. 2" from yesterday evening through this morning.

  5. I was surprised that the official forecast is only for an inch tonight. NAM, GFS, and Euro all suggest around 3" with much more to the south. With a tendency for these storms to bust low, can't blame a more conservative snowfall total forecast.

    There will certainly be a tight gradient with this storm. Hopefully we get a little bit of a NW bump overnight.

    Ya I am still hoping for some good wrap around tomorrow, but won't count on it. Looks like lake county is the cutoff point right now.

  6. CLE optimistic for next week

    HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY

    MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST

    OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. IF MODELS

    PLAY OUT AS THEY ARE SAYING...THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD BE A MAJOR

    SNOW MAKER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AS ALWAYS...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE

    DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS

    ONE CLOSELY.

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