weatherpruf

Jan 4 2018? That was about 6-8 inches here; the bands wouldn't cross west of the Hudson. 2016 was more of an I95 crusher, both east and west of it...IIRC

That would look like a number of storms we've had over the years with my area getting 4-8 while the eastern areas get a full blown storm. I think this is what is more likely than a crush job here, though over your way a little east you might do better than that, IF it doesn't slip further east altogether, which is also on the table. At least there is something to talk about, and even the radio news is expecting some sort of snow this weekend at this point.

For those of us not so well versed, what does this mean...thanks in advance...

I keep seeing the term east, so as I'm west I've got low expectations.

I've personally had it with storms that trend east and leave my area fringed while Ocean Monmouth and LI get the goods. Been this way a few years now. If this even comes to fruition. Seen it too many times and its frustrating. But then I'm only rarely in the bullseye. But, I also don't want to deal with over two feet of snow. 8-12 is good. We are days away and it hasn't been our year but we'll see. The comparisons being made are all to storms that left north central NJ on the light end. So I'm not expecting a huge hit even if this thing actually happens, which no one will know until the weekend in any case. Cheers and keep us posted.

Not for all of us, and I did say there are some exceptions. March 2018 was quite the anomaly; even so, only one storm produced anything of significance in my area.

Still the greatest bust of the modern era and solidified my belief that for the most part, March storms rarely work out for the area, with a few exceptions. But this isn't March, just a lousy pattern.

Generally those storms to the east fringe my area, but sometimes if big enough can still deliver 4-8, which is a win in this kind of winter. This set up from what I am seeing with my limited understanding does not generally favor the upper central area of NJ.

Definitely not out of the woods...sounds like they think we probably are gonna dodge this, but hey ya never know.....

Different world an hour southeast of you....nothing on the ground, big ice patch in front of my sump pump outlet that the town has to spread salt on lest it cover the whole roadway, and not enough ice on the water even if there were a few pathetic fish left under it ( my one local hole was bulldozed after the hurricane to stop bank erosion and cut down on flooding; no attempt was made to save any of the fish or turtles ). We had about two days of snow cover. And so we move on, waiting for the dry cold to lift and hope for an oddball snow event.

Not much of a storm around here IIRC; around 6-7 inches. Think it was mostly east. Was this the one the Euro held onto long after the other models dropped off? Still, in a year like this, 6-7 inches is just fine. I think this is way early to be getting excited over, but there's nothing else going on ( other than a possible war in Europe ....)

Yup. Not so much in Middlesex County though. Dry air killed one storm, another was largely south of us. Sleet did in the 2017 event. Things have to be just right for us to jackpot here; and sometimes they are, just not in recent years.

Ok so it is possible, but how probable? I remember the Jan 87 storm; it was no blockbuster but highly disruptive due to timing. And for the times, it actually was a blockbuster, even if amounts weren't that high. Feb 2006, I thought we had some transient blocking?

How can we get a big snow without blocking? I'm no met or even close, but it seems to me from all I have read here over the years, that is critical....

Because a bit south of you it usually is slop to nothing; the big March of 2018 delivered very little down my way, except for one storm, and a nice April surprise. But these are so fleeting and are gone in days; I remember in March 2019 having a couple small events back to back and they were gone in days. Kinda not worth the bother of cleaning up, and I've noticed many of my neighbors don't even bother to clean their snow anymore; if it's less than 6 inches, they leave it sit. It's usually gone soon. So what we have here is mainly a cold soggy March with some wet snow thrown in for extra misery. I don't expect warmth, but there was a time in the 80's when March weather was tamer and we would have a full month of fishing in by April, back when there used to be winter flounder around ( and you could keep more than 2 ). I mean it rarely snowed IIRC. But things change, and sometime in the early 90's we started seeing March snows again for awhile, then they retreated and we started to see them again in the aughts. With the climate changing, who knows how much longer we'll see March snows; research indicates that NJ in particular has seen its temps rise more than some other states in recent years.

Some years its just the way it goes. I was surprised at the one event we got earlier in this region, and while I'm never shocked to see snow against all odds ( it is winter after all ) I will not be surprised if that remains our only significant event this year ( going with history; snowless Dec in New Brunswick NJ area often correlates with below average snowfall for remainder of the winter, though in 2016 we did get a January whopper ). We'll see. Clock is ticking.

You know when we are starting to talk about gardening the winter is shot......though friends in the south are starting their plants indoors already ( despite the wintry weather there ). I'm probably sticking to nursery plants this year. Too much work to grow from seed.

One of my gripes around these parts is not the snow and cold ( which we don't get a ton of ) but the persistent cloudy, cool, wet weather that seems to hang around from Nov to mid May. This makes even mild winters seem way too long; and then, we go right to hot and humid. So we really only see nice weather in Sept and Oct, but in recent years these months have been plagued with tropical systems that make things like ocean fishing impossible. Each year now I have to delay my garden because we get cold snaps right up til June, something I never remembered as a kid. I waited til very late this year and still had to deal with a late cold snap; things like eggplants and peppers don't recover from that. At least the season lasts a little longer in the fall these days.

Thought you'd be more excited about the event tomorrow by now, but not much interest in it on these boards. What am I missing, it looked good this morning from what I could see.

ugh. Nasty windswept rain with power outages. hope it's wrong.

From what I see here it looks to be a lot of rain in CNJ as well. Have lost interest in this one as it isn't our kind of setup. I would assume any snow that does fall here will be washed away. We'll see.

We had icing in Woodbridge the other day in the morning; it eased up later but for awhile it was hazardous and the guy remodeling our bathroom almost injured himself on the porch stairs, where I didn't put salt. Doesn't look like a non-event from the maps I've seen, though probably not one we'll have to worry about once it warms up in this neck of the woods. Sleep late I guess. Where ya gonna go these days anyway?

No just don't. You might have to stay home and monitor your own power outage. You don't want to come home to a rotten refrigerator.

Well thanks be to God it isn't right? I mean my mom was from the midwest. She did not miss worrying about tornados.....

Are we ok in Northern Middlesex County? I mean we use Mt Holly but Upton is like down the street in Rahway....