weatherpruf

That may very well be the case.

Sagan was a local boy, went to high school 5 mins from my location.....but he never talked about it much....Rahway HS ( yes the same one Milton Friedman went to ).

That's exactly what I thought he meant.

This is very true, but it's also got to do with funding. But many people, myself included, don't have a good understanding of the science ( so I basically just trust the experts ) and I think, as the spouse of a scientist and the father of two in training, that the scientific community does bear some responsibility here, because they tend to lack patience with those who have trouble keeping up. Also science by its nature is ever evolving; so what might be time honored practice today could change tomorrow. People have trouble with that.

What do you mean by big totals? I'm not unhappy with 10-12 and don't need the hassle of 20+....but 2-4 would be a bit of a letdown...I'm just west of SI, Middlesex County, not really a big snow area, especially with these east storms, that triangle of inner Raritan Bay its just a tad west for that kind of storm, but close enough to see something....again, this is days away and nothing would surprise me, even a complete whiff here...

Depends.....on the company you might have....could turn into a memorable long weekend. Just sayin.

I'm still thinking 4-8 in Middlesex/Union counties based on the look of this and history. Still a decent snow in a year like this, but nothing to get all excited about. Still could see nothing at all. I don't expect a massive move west at this point to put us in the best snows. But a 4-8 would still be nice.

I'm thinking some of that is snark....48 inches? This isn't the Rockies.....

That was a big one in CNJ...it was 17 inches and that was more than anyone had ever seen in my local HS....wouldn't happen again until Feb 83.

Jan 4 2018? That was about 6-8 inches here; the bands wouldn't cross west of the Hudson. 2016 was more of an I95 crusher, both east and west of it...IIRC

That would look like a number of storms we've had over the years with my area getting 4-8 while the eastern areas get a full blown storm. I think this is what is more likely than a crush job here, though over your way a little east you might do better than that, IF it doesn't slip further east altogether, which is also on the table. At least there is something to talk about, and even the radio news is expecting some sort of snow this weekend at this point.

For those of us not so well versed, what does this mean...thanks in advance...

I keep seeing the term east, so as I'm west I've got low expectations.

I've personally had it with storms that trend east and leave my area fringed while Ocean Monmouth and LI get the goods. Been this way a few years now. If this even comes to fruition. Seen it too many times and its frustrating. But then I'm only rarely in the bullseye. But, I also don't want to deal with over two feet of snow. 8-12 is good. We are days away and it hasn't been our year but we'll see. The comparisons being made are all to storms that left north central NJ on the light end. So I'm not expecting a huge hit even if this thing actually happens, which no one will know until the weekend in any case. Cheers and keep us posted.

Not for all of us, and I did say there are some exceptions. March 2018 was quite the anomaly; even so, only one storm produced anything of significance in my area.

Still the greatest bust of the modern era and solidified my belief that for the most part, March storms rarely work out for the area, with a few exceptions. But this isn't March, just a lousy pattern.

Generally those storms to the east fringe my area, but sometimes if big enough can still deliver 4-8, which is a win in this kind of winter. This set up from what I am seeing with my limited understanding does not generally favor the upper central area of NJ.

Definitely not out of the woods...sounds like they think we probably are gonna dodge this, but hey ya never know.....

Different world an hour southeast of you....nothing on the ground, big ice patch in front of my sump pump outlet that the town has to spread salt on lest it cover the whole roadway, and not enough ice on the water even if there were a few pathetic fish left under it ( my one local hole was bulldozed after the hurricane to stop bank erosion and cut down on flooding; no attempt was made to save any of the fish or turtles ). We had about two days of snow cover. And so we move on, waiting for the dry cold to lift and hope for an oddball snow event.

Not much of a storm around here IIRC; around 6-7 inches. Think it was mostly east. Was this the one the Euro held onto long after the other models dropped off? Still, in a year like this, 6-7 inches is just fine. I think this is way early to be getting excited over, but there's nothing else going on ( other than a possible war in Europe ....)

Yup. Not so much in Middlesex County though. Dry air killed one storm, another was largely south of us. Sleet did in the 2017 event. Things have to be just right for us to jackpot here; and sometimes they are, just not in recent years.

Ok so it is possible, but how probable? I remember the Jan 87 storm; it was no blockbuster but highly disruptive due to timing. And for the times, it actually was a blockbuster, even if amounts weren't that high. Feb 2006, I thought we had some transient blocking?

How can we get a big snow without blocking? I'm no met or even close, but it seems to me from all I have read here over the years, that is critical....

Because a bit south of you it usually is slop to nothing; the big March of 2018 delivered very little down my way, except for one storm, and a nice April surprise. But these are so fleeting and are gone in days; I remember in March 2019 having a couple small events back to back and they were gone in days. Kinda not worth the bother of cleaning up, and I've noticed many of my neighbors don't even bother to clean their snow anymore; if it's less than 6 inches, they leave it sit. It's usually gone soon. So what we have here is mainly a cold soggy March with some wet snow thrown in for extra misery. I don't expect warmth, but there was a time in the 80's when March weather was tamer and we would have a full month of fishing in by April, back when there used to be winter flounder around ( and you could keep more than 2 ). I mean it rarely snowed IIRC. But things change, and sometime in the early 90's we started seeing March snows again for awhile, then they retreated and we started to see them again in the aughts. With the climate changing, who knows how much longer we'll see March snows; research indicates that NJ in particular has seen its temps rise more than some other states in recent years.

Some years its just the way it goes. I was surprised at the one event we got earlier in this region, and while I'm never shocked to see snow against all odds ( it is winter after all ) I will not be surprised if that remains our only significant event this year ( going with history; snowless Dec in New Brunswick NJ area often correlates with below average snowfall for remainder of the winter, though in 2016 we did get a January whopper ). We'll see. Clock is ticking.