ryan1234

Easy now that's too far south 

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur.


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Easy now that's too far south 

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur.


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21 minutes ago, griteater said:

#3 is beautiful for example (from 18z GEFS Members).  Some other hits in there

If it's snowing on the Gulf Coast of Texas and Mexico, it better damn well snow here. Otherwise, I am packing up my stuff and moving to Mount Washington, NH.

40 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Jan 25 2000. Prime example. 

Feb 2004 and Feb 2014 are also great examples. I was really young in 2004, but if I remember correctly, they were only calling for 4-6 inches. And Feb 2014 was supposed to miss us to the south, I believe. Edit: I would gladly take a half of foot and be satisfied for the rest of the winter. I know, I know: 

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Why on earth do we care about these snowfall totals at nearly 300 hours out? The EPS is still plenty cold. 

Thank you! I understand this a board to discuss weather, even in the long range. But this board is getting muddled up with all these screen shots/clown maps at hour 300. I wish we could have a separate topic for the clown maps, 300 hour GFS maps, ect. 

Nighttime twisters are no bueno. I hope people have their cell phones turned all the way up. 

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

GEFS mean. 

All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some. 

 

Looks like some major Lowland snows for the Pac NW. 

29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

We score our best snows from clippers 

There was one winter, I believe 2009- where we had multiple clippers bring us a couple of inches, each time. I may have the date wrong, though? One nice thing about clippers is the ratio's tend to be a lot higher.

Well, while I know a lot of you would prefer cold and dry over rain/warmth. I for one, am thankful for the rain. It keeps those wildfires at bay and it also helps us going into Spring. We were in a pretty bad drought a few months ago and that has pretty much been erased. 

6 hours ago, eyewall said:

A trace doesn't count as measurable. Either way this will be a snowless year in terms of anything more than a trace.

I am surprised, that you, a meteorologist can call winter over on the 3rd of Janurary. I have a lot of respect for your opinion on this board. But saying we will get nothing is just irresponsible, almost like Glenn Burns calling a destructive ice storm 1.5 weeks out. 

Sorry, but I have a very difficult time buying any LR model, including indices, at this juncture. They were awful these last few years. Last winter we had all these in our favor and nothing worked out. (With the exception being the early Dec snow.) We still have a solid 8 weeks left. All it takes is one storm to put us above average. 

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Underdone... 6z Euro:

Maybe. But if we get moisture robbed from convection along the Gulf and Atlantic it could lower those totals... Le sigh, if only this was all frozen.

50 minutes ago, griteater said:

The scars of 12 inch Euro snow maps turning into a 1/2 inch of slop on the south sides of Greenville - Charlotte - Raleigh run deep in here Stanton.  It is what it is.

Anyway, the GEFS in never never land is moving in the right direction.

It's the curse of I-85! 

But people really do need to relax. And try to learn to take to take any model before 200 hours with a grain of salt. By the way, this is coming from someone who is south of 85. I've been burned so many times that I don't even feel the fire-- aka 33 and rain, anymore... 

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

We were supposed to have so much in our favor in terms of indexes as stated by many winter prognosticators.  On top of that we also have minimal sunspot activity.  And precip seems to be at a premium at the moment.  I'm sure it's cold somewhere, it just ain't on the east coast.  As I said in the sanitarium last week, we have 10 weeks to cash in and the clock starts now at 240 hrs out.  We can still have a blowout year but we better start seeing a pattern flip in the LR mighty quick.

I for the life of me, still fail to grasp and understand why people on this board expected to cash in, in December. We rarely ever do. Look at the odds of a white Christmas S. of VA. They are and have never been good. We have had 2 storms, within the last 10 years and out of 2 of those, Charlotte proper saw basically nothing. The clock for a good chunk of the SE doesn't start in December. We see our biggest storms in Janurary and Feburary. When it's Feb 20th and the LR looks like ****, then we can start the cliff diving. 

 

We are in the SE, so 91% of winter outside the apps is mild, but it still sucks seeing gloy shots of a snow-covered Oklahoma every year

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If you follow Brad P. and watched his outlook for winter, he mentions more than once that overall, this was going to a mild winter. But he thinks we’ll have above average snowfall. It’s not even Christmas, still plenty of time to salvage a good winter. And it’s a lot easier to get snow in Oklahoma and the Midwest, they don’t have those pesky mountains to delay cold snaps or precipitation.


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Just now, Tar Heel Snow said:

Or at least just straighten it out, that’d cut plenty of time off the Raleigh to Charlotte drive!

Anyway, it seems like right now, there’s still quite a bit of moving pieces, but there’s certainly reason for cautious optimism and pessimism. Remember @Cold Rain’s “so what did we learn here?” thread

Let's start a petition, I am sure we could at least gather a few hundred signatures.x

 

This is an interesting system, for sure though. If we can't score with the setup that is being depicted by some the guidance-- THIS TIME OF YEAR, then I give up! But in all seriousness, I am leaning more towards being a pessimist, it saves a lot of grief for later on. Lol.

17 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Depends on your area too this has NW of 85 written all over it as usual. Even the 850s on the cmc if that were the outcome are very marginal. 

 

I swear, if this yet another I-85 and N storm, I am going to personally demolish the entire interstate and move it 50 miles south. Yes, it would be easier to move, but I am tired of that being the case with literally Every. Single. Storm. 

To me, the CMC still looks like temps would be marginal. But it also may not be handling CAD well. I want to believe in it, but the CMC also a crippling ice storm last week, which never came to fruition. 

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

At this point, I'd almost totally ignore the GFS unless it agreed with the Euro/Ukmet/ICON. It has just been bad with these fantasy storms in the mid range. 

It's almost laughable with how horrible it is in the midrange.  Why people hug it every time it shows a fantasy storm is beyond me. The GFS should have its own thread on this forum.  I never expected a flake from this storm and I still don't. We're going to have to wait till next month when climatology is on our side. 

6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Who cares? I want SOMEBODY here to see a white Christmas dang it, seems the Carolinas are always "no snow for you" land this time of the month

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Well, that's because climatology speaking, odds are against us. White Christmas's are a rarity here. I would love it too, but you have to be realistic. Following one specific run will cause great disappointment, in most cases. 

6 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions 

There are so many dynamics that come into play when you have all this energy floating around. I am merely an amateur myself, so I am sure someone could answer with more knowledge, but there are no dumb questions. That's why this board exists!  

If Union County (NC) has a sharp cutoff like that, then you can pretty much take it to the bank--right now!  

12z GEFS is trying hard...
 
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Meh, nothing has really changed from yesterday’s runs. That still shows basically nothing in regards to snow.


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Well, the CPC certainly doesn't offer much hope in regards to an active pattern for the next 7-14 days. Below average precip for the whole Eastern Seaboard. Our chances for winter weather are quickly making that inevitable cliff jump that we seem to make every couple of days...Hopefully the New Year will offer some hope.

46 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I'm just gonna go in expecting it to cut. Just like pretty much every single potential "threat" we've seen since last December's storm. 

I pretty much said this yesterday. We are going to have to wait until we are at least 5 days from an actual event to really iron out details. And even then that's a push. As of now, I am not buying any winter precip next week.