ryan1234

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Emily Byrd focusing on rotating storms on Fox8 already this morning.  Not going to take much to turn this into a high impact tornado event.  Ugh.

Edit - TW Alamance County.

Edit - TW Stokes County.

Here we go!

I really am not liking this sun in the Southern Piedmont. And the fact that there seems to be a lull of any precip around Spartanburg, extending to the SC Midlands. Winds are gusting to around 20 as well. Very ominous indeed. 

Just now, Amos83 said:

Sun is trying to break out here in Mooresville... any sun today will only add fuel to the fire

It's coming. I literally had a good half an hour of blue sky and sun. And it's still out as I am typing this. I definitely didn't expect that this morning and that's only going to shoot those CAPE values up. 

One thing I noticed and I mentioned last night, is that this line has really slowed down. It's almost parked over the Atlanta area right now. That gives us more time to destabilize. As I mentioned before the sun is out here and as we all know it only takes about 15 minutes of April sun to cause major issues. 

Sun is peeking through here right now. NOT something you want to see on a day like this!

It had speed up, the question is if the mesoscale features cause it to fluctuate in speed. I feel like it will.


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Did everyone fall asleep on here? Large and extremely dangerous PDS tornado near Jackson! 

Quite frankly, the SPC wording isn’t all that doomsday like. They mention a few tornadoes with an enhanced wind threat. It looks like today is the worst of this 3 day outbreak.

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The NAM looks nasty. But as has been aforementioned, is it trustworthy? Should we get a separate thread going for tonight/tomorrow though? Or are we waiting to see what happens with the later guidance?


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2 hours ago, shaggy said:

The nam was pretty bullish on a big set of supercells last weekend developing ahead of the front and it was worse case and it didnt happen. When I see such extreme solutions I always suspect it as being bogus. 

I couldn't agree more! Last weekend was a huge bust for my area. It's too bad too. I know models aren't perfect, but when severe weather bust like that, it causes people to lose faith and interest in severe weather. I just feel like when the time comes for another outbreak, people are going to be unprepared. Heck, the Joplin tornado occurred on a Moderate risk day. I really wish people would take the time to educate themselves on tornadoes in the Carolina's. Brad P. posted an awesome and very informative video on tornadoes in our region/state. 

18Z NAM is just a wee bit concerning.........seriously some of the most insane sounding for NC you will ever see....also this line of semi discrete cells over central eastern NC would be exactly the kind of stuff we don't wanna see.....then the line its self is gonna be crazy efficient at getting those 70-80 knt winds just off the surface down.....could be a heck of a event if the NAM is right.

 
 

But the 12z NAM suite just made a case for the moderate risk...  Geez look at those backing SE Surface winds.  Increased surface cape as well, slower with the system.

Its impressive to already have a enhanced risk for eastern NC for Friday. Considering it's still Wedsenday morning. Wouldn't be surprised if there is not a area of moderate risk come late torrommow or Friday morning.

Solak,
Big time wind damage event looks pretty likely for North GA.  Looks like the whole forum is going to get some action this time.  I read WxSouth who is honking Tornadoes but NWS says QLCS with wind damage due to north to south orientation down here.  

27 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

SPC just took all of the SE out of enhanced risk.....

This is all they are saying about overnight 

Ongoing QLCS and clusters from western GA into the eastern FL
   Panhandle will continue to pose a near-term threat for embedded
   brief tornadoes and damaging winds amid strong low-level shear. Some
   of this activity (namely the west-central GA) may persist through
   the afternoon and further develop northeast toward the Carolina
   Piedmont. A broad downstream cirrus canopy will slow boundary-layer
   heating and weak mid-level lapse rates will further curtail
   instability. But the damaging wind/tornado threat should continue
   amid a 50-60 kt low-level jet. 

That kinda surprised me, given the instability available. They overplayed yesterdays event too. (Yes, there were some pretty sig tornadoes, but it was nothing like was what was being depicted with the short term modeling yesterday. Especially over LA. (Edit) There was loss of life and property and I am not downplaying that. It just wasn't over LA. It was TX and MS.

19 minutes ago, shaggy said:

yeah, yesterday Raleigh was bullish with intensifying nighttime storms and the spc is going the opposite way saying it should diminish overnight. Gonna have to see how the dynamics unfold today. Getting a few peaks of sun here in the coastal plains.

I wonder what changed. RAH did not mention intensifying nighttime storms today. But yeah, it's definitely a wait and see kind of day. I have also had some peaks of sunshine here as well. It's crazy how things can change, it was not even two days ago that it looked like N.GA would get hammered. And now it looks like they escaped the worst of it. Unless, a second line forms. 

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Its a scary setup for NC over night......HRRR/NAM have cape over 1000 and STP values of 5-6 along the line of storms they show.....thats nothing but bad. The NAM sounding for central/eastern NC around the time it shows the line of storms crossing looks like this...1500 cape and SRH 400 m/s, and 1am to boot. 

Not saying you're wrong, but SPC says the threat should diminish after dark. Of course, that is all subject to change. Overnight storms are bad news. 

LA/MS definitely escaped the worse of it. Those on going storms really saved the day. Which, I kinda figured that would happen, given the radar today. However, in someways I feel like tomorrow could be worse than today for GA and the Carolina’s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 10% or maybe even 15% chance for tornadic storms tomorrow, especially if we get max daytime heating. Tomorrow could get ugly for many!


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Well, much like I expected the enhanced area shifted east for tomorrow. I guess the question is how much destabilization occurs tomorrow. The tornado threat doesn't seem that high as of now, but I guess that is subject to change? A couple of you all mentioned the NAM as showing something pretty nasty. Today's threat across LA/MS looks downright ominous though. The ongoing question is, will that transpire east tomorrow?

3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

True,  never let your guard down but from this map I see a GA and WNC being the most under the gun in the forum.  Dynamics must be much less impressive for central and eastern NC. 

Definitely, agree. However, if this thing speeds up, it might end up catching many by surprise. But this might up being one of those I-85 specials. If I were within 50 miles of 85, from just east of the AL/GA line to Charlotte and up to the Triad... I'd be ever so slightly nervous. Our area is well overdue for an outbreak.

If things stay the same, I expect we'll see a high risk with this one. The SPC day 1 criteria for high risk (45% with sig severe) would be reached. 

They make Saturday’s event seem more of an issue, than Sunday’s. That’s kinda surprising. Although, timing of the day may make it less of an issue than areas west of the Triangle. I definitely wouldn’t let me guard down anywhere in the Carolina’s for Sunday. It’s quite an impressive setup.

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Another good read for Sunday's event. Very active period upcoming. Once again, I feel like GSP AFD are the best in the country. Compared to many others. They really do a great job!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region will
approach from the west on Friday and stall across the area on
Saturday. A second stronger system will bring storms to the area on
Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 pm EDT: A Wind Advisory has been posted for tonight at
elevations above 3500 feet in and around the Great Smoky Mountains.
There is good consensus of 50+ kt 850 mb flow in and near the
Smokies which should provide for decent high elevation gusts despite
the warm advection regime.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate through the near-term
forecast period as Atlantic and then Gulf moisture begin to converge
on the area. The stacked low pressure system over the central plains
this afternoon will migrate slowly over the upper Midwest tonight
through Friday. Meanwhile, boundary layer moisture will increase in
the southeasterly low-level flow tonight between offshore high
pressure and the strong cold front advancing into the MS River
Valley. Upslope cloudiness will quickly develop, similar to this
morning, but deeper moisture and better forcing will permit
blossoming rain showers, especially along the Blue Ridge around
midnight, and eventually across much of the area by daybreak.
Anticipate that the upslope precipitation will maximize overnight
into Friday morning, but with PoPs then transitioning into the
piedmont through the afternoon as deep layer southwesterly flow sets
up. In addition, upper-level divergence will improve from the west
over the mountains Friday afternoon to keep PoPs going there, while
instability and weak triggers will provide for better convective
coverage along the I-77 corridor through the latter part of the day.
At peak heating, sbCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are likely east
of the mountains, but mid-levels remain fairly warm so thunderstorms
should be mostly garden variety. Anticipate very warm mins some 15
degree or more above climo overnight, with maximum temperatures one
to two categories above climo despite the clouds Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thu: As a mature low pressure system moves across the
central Great Lakes Friday night, a cold front will lay out along the
southern Appalachians per NAM/GFS. The EC depicts it making it past
the mountains, but the general expectation is that the front`s
progression into our area will be limited by the deep ridge over the
Southeast coast and western Atlantic, and as the next system develops
over Texas along the southern end of the front. Thus, we effectively
will be in the warm sector of the Great Lakes system overnight into
Saturday. Some degree of elevated instability will persist during
this time, within a juicy springtime airmass characterized by
Piedmont/valley temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. Except for
relatively weak isentropic upglide, however, there may not be much of
a triggering mechanism. A low PoP (and in many areas thunder) will
remain in the fcst. Deep-layer shear still will be in play on account
of a modest upper jet, so the potential does exist for a couple of
stronger cells producing marginally severe hail and wind,
particularly during peak heating Saturday afternoon.

Instability will wane again Saturday night. The aforementioned Texas
system will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley, tracking along the
Ohio River Sunday. The base of the parent shortwave will swing across
the Deep South. As 850mb flow increases ahead of it, precip again
will blossom along the Escarpment. Instability will redevelop after
daybreak Sunday, with similarly warm/moist sfc conditions. This is
particularly concerning given the increasing 850mb flow, culminating
in the 50-60 kt LLJ appearing likely to translate across the area as
sfc based instability peaks.  0-3km shear accordingly will be similar
in magnitude, and with hodographs above that layer being fairly
straight, QLCS segments appear to be a preferred storm mode. SHERB
values calculated from the GFS peak above 1 across the Piedmont.
Timing differences previously had limited our confidence, but the
latest 12z ECMWF is a little faster than the previous run, bringing
it more in line with the other synoptic models. There remain some
differences in how backed sfc winds will be, which keeps confidence
low as to the degree of tornado threat we will experience.
Nonetheless we anticipate parts of our CWFA will continue to be
highlighted for severe risk (esp. damaging wind) on the SPC outlooks
as we approach Sunday. As the low moves by to our north Sunday night,
the cold front will push through the area, and prog soundings suggest
we won`t totally be out of the woods for severe weather until that
occurs; it is possible we will have two rounds of activity, one
during peak heating and another immediately along the cold front. Of
course the latter will depend on how much energy remains following
the first round.

Much cooler temps will return to the mtns behind the front Monday
morning; precip most likely will end before any of it is able to
change to snow or produce rime ice.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday: With the timing of the dry slot
overspreading the region still slated for Sunday night, progressive
drying within the post-frontal airmass is on tap for Monday.  Within
the well-mixed environment, max temperatures will average a few deg
F below the mid-April climo. Atop the SE CONUS for Tuesday, expect
rising upper heights and the passage of a llvl ridge axis providing
another dry day. Developing llvl return flow will boost maximums
well into the 70s.

Throughout Wednesday, as energy ripples eastward from the Southern
Plains and interacts with an increasing gulf moisture tap,
widespread convective rainfall is progged to blossom acrs the gulf
states. The preferred EC mass fields solution keeps pcpn chances
west/sw of the cwfa into Wednesday evening, so sensible wx for us
should be limited to just an increase in clouds and a further boost
to maximums. With deeper level forcing impinging upon the region
next Thursday, robust deep convection has the potential to become
widespread, stay tuned.

28 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Agreed. Also think the sometime around the 18th does as well. Euro and GFS both have a very nice looking troughs with deep surface lows coming into a similar location as the one this weekend. Two active looking periods to watch no doubt. Interested to see if the gulf can recover in time after the first system. Like the look of the 850's for both systems. AL/MS def should be watching those. 

Yes, I saw that as well. Definitely not a dull time period coming up, that's for sure. AL and MS should absolutely pay attention. But I wouldn't let my guard down either if I were in GA or the Carolina's. Without any wedging, (besides a few other details) that can't keep these storms going further east. Especially in an El-Nino spring. 

This weekend looks interesting (if you're into severe weather). The forecast discussion from GSP is worth a read as well. Looks like the majority of us will have something to track, especially by Sunday. 

The local Mets are really downplaying this. As if it’s a nothing event. I could very well still be, but you’d think a few would be talking about it possibly being more.


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Don't get your hopes up.  Just go run the sprinkler.  My spidey senses are telling me that a dry spring into summer is on the way.  Maybe it's because my leftover leaves are actually crunching again.  I think that rubber band that Bastardi always talks about just snapped back.