ryan1234

3 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  Places like CLT and just south will be hoping the FV3 is right. 

I would love to see it verify as well, simply because it gives decent amounts for pretty much everyone on this board. 

1 minute ago, Snow dog said:

Love the 24" in Sparkle City!

It'll be interesting to see how that 7-inch forecast materializes in Little Rock, Nashville, etc...

13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. 

Maybe read more and post less? I don't know if you're trolling us or being serious. Where are the mods at?

Well, GSP pulled the trigger. Winter Storm Warnings out for most of my area. 

If the NAM keeps showing these ice totals, this area will be a disaster area. However, it's only 1 run and things will continue to change. There is no need for cliff diving or hugging one particular model. That will only cause pain. I am curious to see what the FV3 does for its next run. It has been the most consistent thus far and I wouldn't completely discount those higher snowfall amounts.  

Just now, beanskip said:

FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. 

I am cheering on the FV3, like never before. It has been the most consistent, by far. But man, is it going to leave a lot of us burned if it turns out to be completely wrong.  

Just a friendly reminder that there is an actual observation thread. 

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah,  Not in that neck of the woods but find it strange for that one county sort out by itself to have a Watch.  Almost have to believe the adjacent counties to its west would also come under WSW

I agree it is strange, but I expect more counties to be added at some point. CAE is always more conservative. 

Lancaster County, SC is now under a Winter Storm Watch. It was previously under an advisory. Makes me feel slightly better about there being less of a warm nose for the CLT metro. 

What I find a bit interesting and it most likely will have nothing to do with our area, is how the WSW's and WWA's have shifted quite a bit south in TX and OK. Before OKC was expecting 4-8 inches, that has gone down and that line of heavier snow has shifted to the south.

Given the current trends, I really feel confident that most of us are in for a nice surprise. Granted, I’m merely an amateur, but I really feel like this CAD is going to over perform. Sure, there is plenty that could go wrong. But I think the overall consistency speaks volumes.


.

To be expected with this type of setup. Classic southern snowstorm with the battle lines drawn 15-30 miles on either side of I85.

4 minutes ago, Poimen said:

FWIW, and it may be totally unrelated, but it's interesting that it appears as if the NAM totally busted on the high side out in Oklahoma. Just brutal for some of those areas. Maybe it will bust here equally bad on the low side.

So, I am curious about something. I've always noticed on some of our bigger storms that places like OK and AR seem to get snow as well. Sometimes extending to TN. Is what happens with their snowfall amounts worth noting and getting an idea for what we will receive? Like overperformance or snowfall farther south? 

15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot. 

If there is ZR or IP all the way down to the NE ATL burbs, then there is no reason why Charlotte couldn't say all frozen.

10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96

Click 4x back for "Prev. Run"

A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed. 

This just proves that the models still don't have a complete grasp on how much cold air will be available and how strong the CAD will be. Do I think Charlotte, Raleigh, or even the Triad will see close to 2 feet of snow? No, I don't. Though the Triad stands a slightly better chance. But it also doesn't mean that some of these big totals won't come to fruition even for CLT, RAH, and even GSP. Heck, NE suburbs of Atlanta may end up ZR and maybe some backside snow. There is still soo much time left to go and so many more model runs to go through. So stay within close proximity to the "cliff" but it's way too soon to be standing with one foot off or jump. 

1 minute ago, ozmaea said:

In fairness 90% of these posters are in north carolina, im in upstate so i dont ask a lot of MBY questions but we all want to know, especially for maps that some of us dont have access too

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

98% of the time other board members either end up posting said maps or at least offer a PBP for all of us. 

Good lord, can we please stop with the "how about my backyard" questions? You all know how to read and know that maps and very detailed discussions will eventually begin to surface. I hope the mods can get a hold on some of these posters. Enough is enough! 

Folks, we still have 3-4 days before this storm really gets going. As we all know, there is so much that can change between now and Sunday.  Posting a NAM or GFS snow map and saying "it's all over for your backyard" and yada... yada... yada, does not belong on this thread. 

Interesting point that I think is important to remember:
The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick.  
A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain.  I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think there will be major ice down to areas NE of ATL.  I’m not sure if it makes it into the Metro at all.  Especially given it would have to occur mid way through the event.  Most icing events in ATL are from the start of the precip or not at all

Question: Does Atlanta's higher elevation assist at all with wintry precip in these kinds of setups? Or is it a moot point? 

I'm with SnowGoose on Atlanta being completely thrown for a loop, especially if our CAD overperforms. If the Euro is to be believed, I'd imagine some ZR issues, for sure.  

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

BOOM!

 

Now that's more like it! Looks a lot better for the Upstate and the CLT metro to the Triad. Would love to see those higher totals move a little east so our Raleigh peeps can cash in.

Almost as much as I would love to see a historic snow, I would also love to see the Mods really begin to start really hone in on some of these nonsense posts.

Just now, DopplerWx said:

hoping we can get it to keep trending cooler over the next 3 days.

Cheers to that friend. For once, I'd like to see that warm nose get extinguished and never make it past Kershaw or Winnsboro. We are so overdue! 

Having that transition line right there at SC Highway 9 is still a bit worrisome. I'd like to see it 50 miles south of there, at least for the CLT metro.