bluewave

80° Julys used to only be common around DC before 2010. Now they regularly extend up to NYC Metro. One of these years Hartford will have their first 80° July. They came very close in 2020. Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 82.8 NJ HARRISON COOP 81.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 81.1 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 82.2 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 81.1 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 81.0 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.8 DE DOVER COOP 80.5 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 80.1 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.0 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Baltimore MD/Washington DC NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature MD ST INIGOES WEBSTER NAVAL OUTLYING FIELD WBAN 82.3 MD PATUXENT RIVER NAS WBAN 81.3 VA WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 81.2 VA QUANTICO MCAS WBAN 80.6 DC NATIONAL ARBORETUM DC COOP 80.5 MD BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.4 MD REISTERSTOWN 2 NW COOP 80.1 Hardford came close in 2020 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD BRAINARD FIELD, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.3 0 2 2010 78.8 0 3 2016 78.7 2 4 2013 78.6 0 5 2022 77.9 3 6 2011 77.6 0 7 2019 77.3 1 8 1949 76.8 0 9 2012 76.7 0 - 2006 76.7 0 10 2018 76.6 0

Las Vegas traded places with Newark for the heavy rainfall this month.

Harrison is having their warmest July so far also. But the heavier rains than Newark kept them a degree cooler. Even if they miss the top spot, it will still be close. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.7 3 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1999 0.64 0 2 2002 1.32 0 3 1998 1.45 0 4 2022 1.76 6

Newark is currently the warmest and driest July on record with a few days to go. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.9 3 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.54 3 2 1932 0.84 0 3 1966 0.89 0 4 1999 1.01 0 5 1955 1.14 0 6 2002 1.19 0 7 1974 1.31 0 8 1998 1.34 0 9 1954 1.45 0 10 1977 1.51 0 - 1957 1.51 0

Lake Superior will be the only unusually cool spot surrounded by near record early August heat. 3rd coldest Lake Superior behind 2014 and 1996 in late July since 1995 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150107/a-lake-of-superior-cold

That wouldn’t be enough considering how many locations are having one of their driest Julys after a dry June. It’s tough to break a drought with scattered convection. So many 90° and 100° days really dry things out fast this time of year. We generally need a tropical system or a super soaker non tropical event like August 2011 to break a summer drought. Plus our deficit started in June with some spots at 25% of normal rainfall. So the driest areas are running -5.00 to -6.00 inches below normal since June 1st.

80° Julys used to be rare at our warmest urban stations. Now they are occurring frequently since 2010. Newark and Harrison are having their warmest July so far. LGA is in 6th place due to a stronger onshore flow influence this month. For our more rural locations like White Plains, it’s the 76° mark which has become very common since 2010. The 76.8° average this month is the 4th highest for July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.8 4 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 11 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.7 3 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 6 2002 80.9 0 7 2013 80.7 0 8 2011 80.5 3 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 4 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 11 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 4 - 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 17 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 - 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 - 1949 76.2 0 10 1995 76.0 6

Central NJ got an upgrade to D1 moderate drought today. Much of Long Island was added to D0 dry. Severe D2 drought expanded in Eastern New England.

More of the same with this convection as most places picked up less than .25. Only .19 at Wantagh and closer to .10 in other spots. So just enough to wet the ground here.

The vegetation on the Long Island South Shore is as brown as in this drone video from Central NJ.

La Niña summers that start out hot and dry usually turn wetter by later in summer or early in the fall.

Parts of the area may get upgraded from D0 to D1 as soon as tomorrow. Then maybe a D2 could be possible in early August with more heat. Hopefully, we shift to a wetter pattern before getting anywhere near 2001-2002 levels. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

Hopefully, we can pick up some rains with the hit or miss convection next few days. The drought models are expanding the drought conditions next week. So looking like our next 100°+ heat potential will be in early August. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php US Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD300 PM EDT July 26 2022Synopsis: Dynamical models continue to depict an expanding area of mid-level high pressure over the central CONUS during the week-2 period which shifts eastward as the week progresses, resulting in an elevated threat of excessive heat for much of the CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains, especially for the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest early in the forecast period and expanding into the Northeast later in the period. When coupled with a below-average precipitation forecast, drought development is possible for portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley, as well as for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and the lower Hudson River Valley. Rapid-onset drought possible for portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern South Dakota, as well as eastern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

The only good news for the NYC late July minimum temperature is that it’s increasing at a slower rate than areas to our north like POU.

We probably have to wait a while longer this season for a drought busting tropical system. Much slower start to this year than the last two. The thick SAL layer continues to dominate the tropics.

Yeah, textbook rapid warm up after the radiational cooling inversion. https://theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/720/ At night, the ground emits longwave radiation while not absorbing solar shortwave radiation. This causes a cooling of the Earth’s surface. The Earth’s surface in turn cools the air just above it. This process is most intense when there are clear skies and light wind. The diagram below shows characteristics of the radiational cooling inversion. The inversion layer is shallow and the temperature warms rapidly with height above the ground surface. These situations can cause low temperatures to be colder than expected at the surface. It can also result in a very rapid warm up when the sun comes up since, along with the solar warming, the convective turbulence will pick up causing the much warmer air aloft to mix out the shallow cold air at the surface.

I can remember after the 100° heat in July 1977 when NYC dropped into the 50s and POU the 40s. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 104 78 1977-07-22 88 68 1977-07-23 87 62 1977-07-24 90 70 1977-07-25 78 70 1977-07-26 82 62 1977-07-27 81 58 1977-07-28 80 62 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 100 72 1977-07-22 80 54 1977-07-23 84 48 1977-07-24 90 56 1977-07-25 75 63 1977-07-26 76 52 1977-07-27 76 47 1977-07-28 78 47

The EPS and GEFS both agree on our next 100° potential in early August as a 594dm+ heat dome builds near the region. This is the kind of pattern where the OP models have a windshield wiper effect from 12z to 0z. One of the runs is always warmer but the ensemble mean holds steady with the strong heat signal.

The actual GFS forecast had low 80s for Manhattan today. Those weatherbell charts are always off. So it’s a quality control issue in the way they generate their model forecast charts.

It’s easy to lose track of all these 500 to 1000 year rainfall events in recent years. https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_aep

Strongest La Niña trade winds on record from late June into July.

The bottom line is that the tree growth since the 1990s has probably cost NYC at least 13 days a year reaching 90°. This is by the more conservative Newark figures. Faster warming along the lines of LGA would yield more than that number. So the Con Ed customers should probably be asking why their summer cooling bills aren’t going down like the Central Park 90° days? NYC 90° day drop from 19 in the early 1960s to 16 in the early 2020s..should be 29 using more conservative Newark 90° day increase -3 Newark 21 days to 31 days….+10 LGA 10 days to 25 days…+15

This may have tied the 2nd longest heatwave on record in New Jersey at 14 days for Hillsborough-Duke. The heatwave included 4 days in the 100° to 102° range there. Newark had a heatwave which lasted 20 days in 1988. So this 14 day streak would tie the 2nd longest at Newark in 2010. Atlantic City had a 14 day heatwave in 1995. Hillsborough-Duke https://www.njweather.org/data/daily/3572 Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-25 Mesonet 94 74 76 67 93 47 29.92 29.83 0.00 23 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 102 67 73 62 97 29 30.05 29.90 0.00 24 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 Mesonet 101 66 72 56 99 26 30.03 29.93 0.00 19 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-22 Mesonet 99 70 70 57 92 28 29.94 29.73 0.00 20 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-21 Mesonet 100 69 76 63 98 33 29.74 29.62 0.00 26 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100 67 72 65 94 35 29.81 29.68 0.00 24 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-19 Mesonet 94 70 71 64 91 40 29.83 29.74 0.00 23 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-18 Mesonet 97 72 76 70 97 44 30.00 29.73 0.00 31 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-17 Mesonet 90 68 72 65 100 45 30.05 29.97 0.20 14 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-16 Mesonet 92 66 70 58 98 35 30.14 30.00 0.00 15 ESE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-15 Mesonet 91 60 68 53 95 31 30.15 30.06 0.00 15 SSE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-14 Mesonet 91 63 69 58 97 36 30.07 29.89 0.00 19 NW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-13 Mesonet 93 67 70 58 95 36 29.91 29.76 0.00 16 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-12 Mesonet 94 60 72 56 98 46 29.87 29.67 0.00 23 SW Newark Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 20 1988-08-17 2 14 2010-07-29 3 12 1995-08-04 - 12 1972-07-25 Atlantic City Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 14 1995-08-05 2 10 2010-07-25 - 10 1983-07-21

This may be the first time that our area had multiple days of 100° heat with a trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The 10 event 100° day composite from 2010 to 2021 featured a strong ridge over the Northeast instead. So the steadily warming summer climate is finding new 500mb patterns to deliver extended 100° heat into our area. Recent extended 100° heat 2010 to 2021 composite of 10 days reaching 100°+

White Plains just ended its 3rd longest at or above 70° low temperature streak at 9 days. All the top 5 longest streaks have occurred since 2013. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 11 2013-07-11 2 10 2013-07-23 3 9 2022-07-25 4 8 2016-08-17 5 7 2018-08-08