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AFD TUL Attention then turns to the wintry weather potential on Saturday. Model solutions change the track of the upper storm system with each run. One of the extended models brings the upper low well south of its previous track, while another model brings the upper low over Tulsa. This solution would keep the heaviest snow within the deformation band north of Tulsa. For now, we have high confidence that temperatures will be warm enough for all rain Friday night, with the cold air moving into northeast Oklahoma early Saturday morning. If the system is a bit slower, with more of a closed low, there could be a 2-4 hour period of moderate snow Saturday morning, across portions of northeast Oklahoma. There will likely be a transition zone of a rain/snow mix, or snow with sleet mixing in. By Saturday afternoon, it should be cold enough for all snow, but the forcing for ascent will also be departing the area, which will limit the time for accumulating snow given current forecast data. This airmass will be the coldest of the season, and combined with strong northwest winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, wind chill values in the single digits are likely by Saturday night and Sunday morning. In areas where we get accumulating snow, the wind could cause blowing and drifting. Precipitation moves out quickly on Saturday night, but Sunday will be cold with highs in the 20s and 30s. Another chance for wintry precipitation arrives by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, just beyond this forecast.

We lived in Tulsa and had to walk a mile to the Walgreens for milk and bread! I lived in an apartment complex and my car was buried for two weeks! Good times! I ate so much snow ice cream!

No worries! I think it's one of the newer ones on tropical tidbits, but I know nothing about it, lol.

ICON is a model, and Groundhog Day storm from 2011.

hmmmm..wondering how much the weekend storm can dig and how low is the HP above it going to be? 18Z ICON looks similar to the GHD storm of 2011.

Good luck to all you MO folks!! The excessive cold rain and days without a WSW here is Tulsa is over 1400 days now. It's an absolute joke! I see nothing on the horizon to get even remotely excited about. All this talk about "this will be the year to break the snow drought" LIES! (Yes, I'm pouting.... #SorryNotSorry #This"winter"sucks!

What a waste of all this water in January! Freezing rain blows!

Here is the video from the 21 car pile up in Tulsa! Absolutely insane!! That I-244/I-44 fork split is always dangerous...even when it's dry!

Just watched the news say the City of Tulsa officials commenting that they weren't prepared for the storm! They said they didn't even start sand and salting the roads till after 7:30pm!

Spitting Sleet/freezing Rain on the SW side of Tulsa in between Sapulpa and Jenks.

I'm on the SW side of Tulsa, right on the Creek County/Tulsa County line....hoping it travels further NE! Wishing we could all cash in on this!

It's gonna come down to when this system kicks out. If it comes later on Friday, the cold air has retreated. We almost need it to be faster...and come Wednesday into Thursday.

If only we were 10 degrees colder today..this storm could've been real interesting! Cold Rain Sucks!

I personally will not be giving an apology. It still sucks!

For Fallin to declare a state of emergency for this is just about the biggest bust for Oklahoma!

Hmmm....I see that. It does look similar. I'm wishcasting for the low to close off, which would pull it back north and go negative tilt. Long shot, but that's what I'm hoping for.

18Z 3K NAM @ hour 39

Through hour 35, the 12K NAM has the low in the boot of Texas, but the 3K NAM has the low north of Houston. That's a HUGE difference!

Dangit...models are pretty depressing today!

Is it on shore yet to be sampled?

Does anyone get the UKMET?

Yes, that GUY! LOL

Where's Mike Morgan to get the hype train started? Channel 4 will no doubt have some high amounts! I live in Tulsa, but that guy is fun to watch when I'm in OKC!

So are we throwing out the NAM all together? I've been throwing the GFS out!

18Z NAM12k is doomsday for Oklahoma! Pretty much a foot+ for the state!? And at 84 it's ongoing!