BlizzardWx

Next storm will likely be Wednesday here. Not looking huge but a few inches are possible.

Decent snowstorm over SLC last weekend. Some places were over a foot with lake effect. I had 5.4". Another 1/3" this morning. Looks be drying out for a while with inversions and fog setting up the next few days.

Looking at some snow here tomorrow night and again on Sunday. I'm thinking 2-4" for me tomorrow night and 1-4" for Sunday.

3.3" yesterday at my house. Probably some more towards the coming weekend.

Very quiet here lately. Cold and dry.

I am a big fan of what this forecast shows. Nice to see it going for cold weather throughout the west and decently wet, especially SW. Most of the forecasts are for warm and dry over the interior west in my area.

Looks like you are going pretty warm and dry for the mountain west then. Thanks for sharing your outlook.

Years like 2014 and 1968 were pretty much exact opposites for my area. ECMWF seasonal forecast is looking much more 2014 like for my part of the country.

His use of "A leads to B" kind of rubs me wrong for the reasons you mention here. We have to be careful in atmospheric science to not over explain things that happen to be correlated based on small sample sizes. Don't get me wrong raindancewx, I like your posts! Just be more careful with your word choice.

From 2007-2013 we had a pretty sustained negative PDO with only a brief positive period during the el nino of 2009/10. Then we had a positive phase for 50 months, from 2014 through March 2018. This summer its been pretty flat and oscillating near zero. Interesting that even during pretty much the entire la nina we maintained a +PDO and only now are seeing some negative months as the next el nino sets in. Hard to say if the somewhat negative PDO look is the result of a few years of la nina trying to erase the mega +PDO and will disappear as el nino builds or if there is actually something driving the -PDO in spite of the developing el nino. Any ideas? I'd venture that 2002 looked -PDO going into winter because of the 3 year la nina event preceding it, but that look disappeared heading into winter as el nino grew. In some sense we could be in a similar boat here and I wouldn't be shocked to see the -PDO disappear in the next 1-2 months. At least for now though, the waters off of Japan are warming and near the west coast they are cooling.

Fair point, mostly I was meaning that its no longer strongly Modoki, and at least for the next few weeks the lower level westerly wind anomalies should keep it that way in spite of 1+2 volatility.

Nice post. Offhand do you know which years would match the east-central focus best?

Another 1.20" here in the last day, making 3.30" for the month. Things will be shutting down now though, with no precipitation or very little the next 10 days. First hard freeze might be coming on Monday morning though.

With the recent big increase in nino 1+2 temps, this nino is no longer highly west-based, but rather looks more like a basin-wide event for now. More anomalously warm water just under the surface in nino 1+2 than further west, but if you go deep enough the biggest anomalies are further west as well. Will be interesting to see what all makes it the surface.

Ended up raining quite a bit last night with several thunderstorms. My total for October 2-5th is 2.09". A friend of mine nearby had 2.89", but the airport only managed 1.22". Some weak lake effect rain showers were noted earlier this morning but clearing out now. It was fun to finally have some action after about 40 dry days in a row and only 2 meaningful storms before this since mid June.

I've had 1.01" so far in the last 3 days. Should get another 1/2" or so tonight, and some additional rain Sat night-Sun.

Looks pretty wet in Utah the next week. My location should finish with 1.5-3" by Saturday.

Pretty strong trough signal somewhere near the west coast days 7-10, but if it goes too far west we will see dry SW winds kick up instead of a refreshing cool down.

Quiet weather continues in Utah. Although we did have a day with some severe storms about 10 days ago or so. Pattern change coming up may yield more rain chances with ensemble showing a mean trough over the west coast in the extended.

The downwelling kelvin wave will probably help the warming resume again, but will be interesting to see how much. I am less experienced than you guys on the subject, but everything I can see points to a weak event as well.

This summer has been terrible in SLC. Smoky, hot, and dry. I've had one thunderstorm since mid June, but might have a chance tomorrow night at least.

Pretty interesting GFS runs today with a moisture tap from the tropical system down there into Arizona and then again with the dying remnants of another system hitting the same area. Could be quite wet in some locations that traditionally get almost no rain in June.

Anybody have any general thoughts for west-central Texas (Abilene) for around June 3-9? I'll be there then and would love to see some fun stuff and possibly do some chasing if its close.

Possible, I just know they were out for me yesterday so maybe you need to clear your cache or something.

The weeklies on wxbell come out Mon and Thurs for the record. Good luck with your chase though!