BlizzardWx

And nobody expects perfection! You did a great job this year. I'm really hoping your success keeps going because it would mean we are not done yet.

It would take a pretty sharp reversal to get decent cold anomalies in the plains compared to current guidance for Feb. We are going to be roasting at least first third if not first half of the month, like +10 F above normal if not more for my area. Of course January was like that and we still ended below normal because the last third of the month was so cold. But assuming models trend more favorably after any SSW maybe we still have time. I don't think it would take much of an eastward shift in the pattern mid month to turn that western trough into GB/Plains trough.

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up.

Interesting on some guidance, like last nights ECMWF, how quickly the mid level heights across higher latitudes increase after the PV split. Could be coincidence but I hope we can get this going in February rather than waiting till March to see impacts.

Apparently the CPC will start using RONI now in their discussions, just like Australia did last year.

I ran this for last nights CMCE. Starting to see more members showing the SSW.

That's an interesting idea because that is basically what you see on the weeklies. It just locks in and stays similar for the rest of Feb and into March.

So assuming our coming strat split happens, how long will it take to couple at the surface. I know @Stormchaserchuck1 might have stats on that.

We did do well! Models were trying to show 20+ inches just 24 hours out and I ended up with 7", but that is still a large storm for this part of the country. I think officially TUL had 8.7" spread over 3 days.

Well at least down here it looks like we finally get some winter this weekend. Although it still ranges from basically nothing on the ICON to a foot or more on the ECMWF. Right on schedule for Nina climo.

I certainly hope so. The short term pattern looks a lot like early December for my area with repeated glancing blows from dry cold fronts. A little bit of a signal for some kind of wintry system around the 25th.

Yeah that was me. Here you go! https://weathersigma.com/sst

It really was, a full 6 degrees above the old monthly record!

It was 86 degrees at my place today. I hope we can get some payback later into January. EPS weeklies definitely looking more promising mid month.

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too.

The metals markets are completely out of control right now. The paper slammers can't crush it down anymore and there just isn't enough silver to go around. It's being driven by a true physical shortage. Between that and a 7 dollar spread between Shanghai and London, it'll keep going up for now regardless of how "overbought" it is. Now back to weather!

Definitely some large and important trends. On the first trough I think its the more SW -NAO high that helps the trough dig into the Plains more effectively. The forecast is trending colder quickly here for next next week. Moving towards +PNA near days 8-10 as well. If that west coast ridge can merge with the WPO high I bet a lot of cold air dumps south in a hurry. Obviously trends can reverse, but it looks more promising than I've seen in a while.

The warmth continues to look impressive here, with mid 70s to low 80s for several days before and after Christmas. Likely a few record highs and max mins. The overall pattern continues to look messy to me and out of phase, perhaps from multiple competing factors. That tends to make it hard to secure anything really great in terms of winter weather down south. So for now I see nothing positive, but obviously that could change in a few weeks.

I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually develops. The way I tend to look at this is that models even today cannot see pattern changes coming until they are within the medium range. It's fun to look at the weeklies, but there really is very little skill past 10-15 days. So maybe we do get a +PNA flip, maybe we don't, but I am confident that models don't know either

This would be a pretty major reversal from the current pattern. Definitely would get a more active storm track so theoretically higher snow chances for many.

I've been trying to think about what is "going wrong" with such a prolific -WPO to be talking about record warmth down my way. Do you know if a -WPO is typically good for the southern Plains? Is it perhaps atypical to have a -WPO paired with a -PNA or is that typical? I know when I look at the current pattern it seems reasonable to have a west coast trough downstream of that high but maybe sometimes ridging extends further southeast? Mostly just trying to build my understanding for this index.

Assuming no shallow cold air sneaks down my way (certainly possible) we are probably going to have a good shot of record heat on Christmas. It's a surprisingly low record at 73 F in Tulsa, very doable given the pattern.

That's fair. I think the tri-monthly is around -0.9 eyeballing it.

Thanks for the comments. I do think we will get our turn down here in January or early February.

As of the 7th I had the RONI at -0.97.