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BlizzardWx

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  1. BlizzardWx
    For an el nino summer, we've sure been cooking in the south lately, and it looks like a week or more of 100+ temps coming. Very unusual for el nino from my understanding...but I still think once we get more into fall the STJ will increase with angular momentum working north.
  2. BlizzardWx
    I suppose that will be the question this fall, when this actually happens. It's probably going to be gradual as baroclinity increases, and my guess would be not much change from now until the back half of September. Could be pretty nasty in my area until then if we stay stuck under the heat dome.
  3. BlizzardWx
    That is what I was saying the other day by the way. I think they see the ENSO forcing and go with it. They don't see some of the other stuff that obviously matters, so they miss anything that deviates from the stock forcing that ENSO gives you.
  4. BlizzardWx
    There are things that matter for seasonal forecasts that models can see many months in advance, but there are also things that either they simply cannot see or are more regional/shorter temporally and so the forecasts won't see them for several months. As an example, and my memory is fuzzy, but there was a paper I believe that at least implied that the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" of 2013-2015 was substantially driven by the existing land/surface state (i.e. self reinforcing). And it's not like that is a novel concept, but the question is, what can these climate models realistically know about? I suspect a lot of these more nuanced land/sea configuration states do not reach the model forecast. What does that leave you? It leaves you where I started, with the things the model can see. I have no doubt that in the absence of other forcings the canonical El Nino forecast is what you would get every time. It is then our job as forecasters to determine what else is going to matter to modify or shift that enso signal. Forecasters like 40/70 Benchmark do a good job at this and consider the kaleidoscope of forcings to try to arrive at what may actually happen. But as he already noted, you will never have stronger enso forcing than this, so its reasonable to assume we end up closer to "climatology" than normal...whatever that is for a roided out Nino like this one.
  5. BlizzardWx
    IOD and PDO forecast based on the latest seasonal runs. Note my PDO calculation runs higher than other sources. I haven't wired these maps into my website yet but I will post the link if anybody wants it later.
  6. BlizzardWx
    I thought this was an interesting plot I saw on X. Any thoughts on how far east actual convection will fire within the ENSO regions? Sure seems like it'll be further east than ever before. I was actually have a hard time getting a straight answer but at least for the Galapagos Island the average is highest at around 77F in Jan-Mar. If it were to maintain a ~5C anomaly that would be 86F. One would think that would be enough. Did that happen in 97? Just trying to contextualize all this.
  7. BlizzardWx
    I generally agree. I suspect by fall it will be neutral to maybe slightly negative, ending slightly positive by the end of winter.
  8. BlizzardWx
    Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date.
  9. BlizzardWx
    Recent trends of all the nino regions together. You can really see nino 4 leveling off while the others continue to build.
  10. BlizzardWx
    In fact, I think that the odds of this changing into fall are pretty good. At some point the el nino pattern may just break in as tropics and midlatitude better connect with time.
  11. BlizzardWx
    I've been thinking about this too. Makes you wonder if with CC what is typical of el nino could be changing or if we've just been oversubscribing a small sample size. Either one says we aren't necessarily going to get a big GOA low. It also says maybe the El nino - PDO connection is less settled than we think.
  12. BlizzardWx
    I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all.
  13. BlizzardWx
    That is certainly the way it looks. Yeah, some MC influence is still lingering, but the nino obviously still has a lot of room to run too. It'll clearly be improved over 2023. And like you said that is what actually matters for this year.
  14. BlizzardWx
    Certainly feeling like summer out there now. MCS expected tonight through the Tulsa area, but hopefully after fireworks.
  15. BlizzardWx
    And it's not going to stop either. Both sides of the Pacific are going to stay active into fall, and El Nino is going to keep on rolling as continuous WWBs push it to full throttle.
  16. BlizzardWx
    For all the talk of the arctic being cold, the sea ice hasn't got the memo, running near record lows. What I suspect, if the "cold" pattern continues, is that this will slow down heading into peak summer melt season like we've seen in the last few years. So we end up low, but not record low. On the other hand if melt off continues it would be yet another sign that something has indeed shifted.
  17. BlizzardWx
    I think extra cloud cover from more open sea area and thus evaporation is a good candidate. But its also plausible it could be traced back to the same patterns driving the west Pacific warm pool/-PDO that has been dominant over most of this same period. Interesting to think about anyway. I am not totally sure we cool that area below 30C but it is possible. Perhaps more likely is if the area to the east is enough warmer, along with the circulation you mentioned, it can at least put a lid on convection near the MC. Then you'd at least have the dominant forcing away from 4-5-6.
  18. BlizzardWx
    I think it IS pretty good right now for the most part. But I also think as the globe warms it will rise. It's really a function of lapse rates and a 30C surface is usually good enough to guarantee conditional instability for the time. But this ties back to my other post that a robust +IOD and +ENSO circulation could still cap it.
  19. BlizzardWx
    That is the question! I hope we can do it but I am still on the fence about whether it happens or not.
  20. BlizzardWx
    Yeah that is exactly what I was getting at. I am not sure if +30C is a magic number per say, as strong enough subsidence from a +IOD and +ENSO circulation might be able to keep a lid on it. But I do think the general idea is correct that if the surface is warm enough you will still get storm activity and forcing from that area.
  21. BlizzardWx
    If the entire system is too warm, even "below normal" can still be warm enough for convection to form. I tend to think that is what actually matters. If storms are popping near to above normal frequency near the MC you still have forcing.
  22. BlizzardWx
    My numbers run slightly higher than WCS, and showing a rise back to around 0. Last year at this time we were tanking the value. In 2024 we were recovering somewhat after already tanking, but values were still much lower than now. In my mind its clear that things are really changing from where we've been the last 10 years. Yeah, maybe we aren't headed for a robust +PDO, but it feels like neutral to slightly positive could be in the cards.
  23. BlizzardWx
    This is a good point because it may well be pretty similar to what we end up doing in the N Pac this winter, with warm water east of Japan AND along the west coast. Yeah its a problem when we only want to use recent years as analogs yet all of those years are biased towards -PDO and +AMO. That won't work when we buck the trend.
  24. BlizzardWx
    And it's worth noting it's not just really warm vs less warm. ECMWF seasonal shows genuine cool anomalies near the MC as part of that +IOD along with the eastward leaning nino. I think if this roughly happens it really would kill the split forcing Bluewave is always talking about. Even further north the ECMWF seasonal is mostly breaking down the warm water in the west Pacific with what is a neutral to maybe slight +PDO look. This would be a genuine change from the last decade. And that's to say nothing of what still looks to be a marginally negative AMO.
  25. BlizzardWx
    Yeah, that is what my page shows as of the 27th for the daily value. As for how I did it, that's an important point to dwell on for any PDO calculation. It's dependent on the period of record, the exact domain, how much you correct the climate change signal, etc. All of these effect the EOF calculation that defines the weights that can then be used in the actual calculation. None of this is clearly standardized anywhere, which is why different groups get different values. I think that mine and WCS are better than NOAA who does not appear to have detrended the climate change signal properly.
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