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BlizzardWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by BlizzardWx

  1. BlizzardWx
    You are right that it should be that way, but my suspicion is that the NOAA numbers are so low because its imbalanced. But yes, I don't know that, just a theory.
  2. BlizzardWx
    One thing to keep in mind with the PDO is that depending on how you calculate it, it's not necessarily balanced. By that I mean that the main area east of Japan, depending on how you calculate it, can be both larger in area and have a stronger weighting than the half ring around it. This matters, particularly in a warming climate. As warm conditions everywhere can bias the PDO calculation negative for these reasons. In fact I think this already happens with the NOAA calculation. My page and the WCS seem to handle this a bit better but likely not adequately. @bluewavehas talked about how the PDO is becoming less useful with time and this is part of the reason why.
  3. BlizzardWx
    If the west Pacific is able to have a sustained active season, particularly into the fall, frequent typhoon recurves may help to break up the warm water anomalies over there. Perhaps it would help in nudging us towards a +PDO. I guess we will see though.
  4. BlizzardWx
    I know for my area we statistically do better with weak to moderate el nino, but if we need a strong nino to finally stir up the west pacific warm pool I will take it. I agree that this does not look like 2023 at this point, but its also real early and it would be silly to be too confident in any outcome yet.
  5. BlizzardWx
    If somebody has a data source I can add a plot to my page for this or anything else you want. But I have to assume the -PDO pattern is pretty baked in below the surface still. It'll take time to fix that.
  6. BlizzardWx
    By my calculations, PDO is around -0.25 now. So yeah, I'd say we got a chance to finally break this.
  7. BlizzardWx
    And nobody expects perfection! You did a great job this year. I'm really hoping your success keeps going because it would mean we are not done yet.
  8. BlizzardWx
    It would take a pretty sharp reversal to get decent cold anomalies in the plains compared to current guidance for Feb. We are going to be roasting at least first third if not first half of the month, like +10 F above normal if not more for my area. Of course January was like that and we still ended below normal because the last third of the month was so cold. But assuming models trend more favorably after any SSW maybe we still have time. I don't think it would take much of an eastward shift in the pattern mid month to turn that western trough into GB/Plains trough.
  9. BlizzardWx
    That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up.
  10. BlizzardWx
    Interesting on some guidance, like last nights ECMWF, how quickly the mid level heights across higher latitudes increase after the PV split. Could be coincidence but I hope we can get this going in February rather than waiting till March to see impacts.
  11. BlizzardWx
    Apparently the CPC will start using RONI now in their discussions, just like Australia did last year.
  12. BlizzardWx
    I ran this for last nights CMCE. Starting to see more members showing the SSW.
  13. BlizzardWx
    That's an interesting idea because that is basically what you see on the weeklies. It just locks in and stays similar for the rest of Feb and into March.
  14. BlizzardWx
    So assuming our coming strat split happens, how long will it take to couple at the surface. I know @Stormchaserchuck1 might have stats on that.
  15. BlizzardWx
    We did do well! Models were trying to show 20+ inches just 24 hours out and I ended up with 7", but that is still a large storm for this part of the country. I think officially TUL had 8.7" spread over 3 days.
  16. BlizzardWx
    Well at least down here it looks like we finally get some winter this weekend. Although it still ranges from basically nothing on the ICON to a foot or more on the ECMWF. Right on schedule for Nina climo.
  17. BlizzardWx
    I certainly hope so. The short term pattern looks a lot like early December for my area with repeated glancing blows from dry cold fronts. A little bit of a signal for some kind of wintry system around the 25th.
  18. BlizzardWx
    Yeah that was me. Here you go! https://weathersigma.com/sst
  19. BlizzardWx
    It really was, a full 6 degrees above the old monthly record!
  20. BlizzardWx
    It was 86 degrees at my place today. I hope we can get some payback later into January. EPS weeklies definitely looking more promising mid month.
  21. BlizzardWx
    I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too.
  22. BlizzardWx
    The metals markets are completely out of control right now. The paper slammers can't crush it down anymore and there just isn't enough silver to go around. It's being driven by a true physical shortage. Between that and a 7 dollar spread between Shanghai and London, it'll keep going up for now regardless of how "overbought" it is. Now back to weather!
  23. BlizzardWx
    Definitely some large and important trends. On the first trough I think its the more SW -NAO high that helps the trough dig into the Plains more effectively. The forecast is trending colder quickly here for next next week. Moving towards +PNA near days 8-10 as well. If that west coast ridge can merge with the WPO high I bet a lot of cold air dumps south in a hurry. Obviously trends can reverse, but it looks more promising than I've seen in a while.
  24. BlizzardWx
    The warmth continues to look impressive here, with mid 70s to low 80s for several days before and after Christmas. Likely a few record highs and max mins. The overall pattern continues to look messy to me and out of phase, perhaps from multiple competing factors. That tends to make it hard to secure anything really great in terms of winter weather down south. So for now I see nothing positive, but obviously that could change in a few weeks.
  25. BlizzardWx
    I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually develops. The way I tend to look at this is that models even today cannot see pattern changes coming until they are within the medium range. It's fun to look at the weeklies, but there really is very little skill past 10-15 days. So maybe we do get a +PNA flip, maybe we don't, but I am confident that models don't know either
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