tdp146

On 9/9/2018 at 6:08 PM, Hailstorm said:

I definitely agree with this. According to the SLOSH models I have just run, parts of Brooklyn and Queens could get slammed with up to a 32-foot storm tide in a Cat. 4, assuming the impact coincides with high tide. Sandy, by comparison, "only" produced a storm tide of 11 feet in Manhattan. This would make Sandy appear to be "child's play" if that scenario came into fruition; as the surge would penetrate at least 3 miles further inland along the south-facing shorelines of Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island.

 

Did you send the NWS your email address via this page in order to get access to run that model? https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/disclaim.php

30 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Max winds are likely to decrease on final approach but, like Katrina, the wall of water is built up and the coastal bites will magnify it. Another comparison, the peak surge for Hugo 1989 was just over 20 feet. 

Hugo had an IKE just under 100TJ at landfall

12z euro never technically makes landfall. Storm gets tucked in just off the coast of Delaware around hour 200 then spins around in that area through the end of the run. Actually moving SE at hr 228. This should be a interesting week of tracking.  

Had about 2 hours of filtered sun and the rest of the day was full sun at the beach.  Beautiful. We may sit here till sunset.  

Had been full sun and blue sky on the beach all morning up until about 30 mins ago. Now some broken clouds filtering the sun a bit. Still a nice day. From satellite the rest of the region looked mostly cloudy and the beach is unusually quite for day like this.  

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Even i am getting sick of the hot weather. No relief here yet, 86/75/96. A few dry cool days would be nice. 

I'm still loving it. Brokeback Summer continues next week 

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

When was the last time we had below normal water temps off the coast? I feel like they've been perpetually above to well above normal. 

I beleive there was a short period in spring where they were below. Late March-May 

6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I see it poured at home. I guess some things never change. Glad I turned off my sprinklers before I left.

I made the mistake of leaving mine on (and actually slightly increased the duration for each zone) while I was away in Scotland in mid July.  I’ve had the whole system off since I got back. That’s the longest by far I haven’t had to water in summer. Almost thought about turning them on again if it didn’t rain last night- but it did. 

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Thanks, hoping for the best. Hopefully the airport will survive the worst of it and we’ll be able to get home on time. As of now, it does look like a glancing blow vs a direct hit, but the forecast trend has been troubling, and a possible recurve right over the islands isn’t out of the question. 

I’m also worried about landslides and water spouts. As you may know, this side of the island is dry, so runoff will be an issue.

I'd rather be stuck in Hawaii from a Hurricane rather than stuck at home not having been able to get there in the first place. 

50 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Some of the mushrooms on the lawns are large and thick enough to be used as bludgeons.

Seriously. I can’t remember a year where I’ve seen more mushrooms. 

We had my father in laws suprise 70th birthday at the house yesterday. I put up a few canopy’s in the yard and was glad I did because as soon as everyone sat down to eat we had a downpour.  The rain this summer had been a pain but at least its been warm. Today is the one exception. For August, I would consider today “disgusting”.  Luckily it looks fairly short lived. Need to pack in the beach days while we can  

Full sun again.  Going to a bbq 3 miles south of me where it hasn’t rained a drop all day. 

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely nothing south of Merrick road in Wantagh. I definitely remember a few setups like this where the sunrise highway is the dividing line. I remember on specifically when I was a kid where there was major flash flooding north of the Southern state and nothing south of there. I remember driving home from? With my mother and almost getting stuck multiple times only the get to the SS and the rain just shut off.  

Yeah. I’m about a mile north of sunrise. My fiends in Long Beach have been on the sand all day in the sun. I feel like this is what a rain forest would be like. 

Radar is even slow to react. I’m under a rain band that is pretty much as hard as I’ve ever seen it rain. On radar it looks like a shower. 

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

There is a history of these convergence zones setting up west to east across LI.  There was one a couple of years ago that dumped up to several inches of rain across NW Suffolk Cty.

I’ve been on the edge of the sea breeze front all day. It will pour for 20 mins and 20 mins later the sun is out in full. I’ve lost track of how many downpours I’ve had today. 

11 minutes ago, WaPo said:

JUST.

NON-STOP.

LIGHTNING.

Yeah. This is rowdy. Haven’t had a light show like this in a while!

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Bump

I’m on the sand in Long Beach. It would be tough with a 10 month old today. Although everything is probably tougher with a 10 month old 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks to be over by about 11am for most of us-sooner west of the city

This could be a sneaky good beach day if it clears by the afternoon. No crowds 

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Heavy downpours along the South Shore right now moving NNE.

 

 

Yes. Pounding rain here. Finally. 

Just imagine if you enjoyed warm & summery AND cold & snowy.  You would have something to look forward to all the time in the New York climate instead of doing drive-by posts proclaiming how 'disgusting' it is. 

I have been visiting Scotland for the last week with my wife. Beautiful here. The UK has been having a ridiculous hot and dry summer. The hills have started now to brown out even in a lot of the highlands which is like unheard of.  If anyone watched the British open last weekend you saw it at Carnoustie. Today I’m in Edinburgh and basically feels like a warm muggy night back home. watching  big thunderstorm and light show pass off just to my east. These places aren’t used to this kind of weather. Not a single place I’ve been at has AC. But I of course like the heat so it’s been great for us as tourists. 

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I saw a fairly big shark (6’) break the surface and swim though a wave earlier. The first shark I have ever seen in 26 years of surfing. A little unnerving to say the least 

Where?

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping the condo owners of the Lido Towers come around and allow them to build dunes on their beach. It would be silly to leave an opening there for surges to get through.

Army Corps not allowed to work at private condo

http://liherald.com/wantagh/stories/concerns-over-beach-project-in-lido,105089

They have a short memory.. From that article "During Sandy, floodwater inundated the lower level of Lido Towers, causing $16 million to $17 million in damage."  

Sounds like the town of Hempstead needs to get approval from every single owner in order to get an easement to allow the dredge pipe to come onto the beach or it would open the town up to lawsuits.  I wonder if the people who won't allow a dredge pipe on 'their' beach for a week or two had any issue taking FEMA money after Sandy. 

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty cool watching the sand dredging videos from Long Beach. They are starting out in the West End.

https://patch.com/new-york/longbeach/dredging-officially-underway-long-beach-shore

I don't know if most people realize how much bigger the beaches will be when this is all done.. the shore will extend all the way to the end of the jetties.  Hopefully the noise variance gets approved so they can finish faster. 

52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Have have been telling friends about this and they seem to be in denial. Anything that decreases the size of usable beach or disrupts the  view from the boardwalk are a big taboo 

League Volleyball got canceled tonight 

Boo-hoo it’s summer.