AllWeather

Wind driven sleet in Manheim at 6:35

This is brutal (seasonal snowfall). Came without a legend, but I think we can all fill in the blanks 

Down with COVID and living vicariously through our NE friends. At least I get to look at a dusting in quarantine! 

Nice dendrites out of these light returns. Good for a coating. Nice surprise!

2 hours ago, paweather said:

Here comes Tuesday:

I can't wait to be disappointed again. 

Seems like a certain storm chasing group has disabled their page on Facebook. 

2” still pouring snow in Manheim. Occasional sleet mixing in. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks.  Not sure if I consider that a full close off despite that small area in the middle.  Maybe someone who knows more than me could opine as usually a close off is a little more clean.  Larger, more circular.  

It’s technically closed off as the height lines do form a (very) small circle. 

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nam... because it's the 1st 0z to come out lol

Look at all that cold air

Amazed at the GFS sniffing two events out before the Euro. Props. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah there was a little "debate" this morning about going from boring to boom in a rather short period.  .

Dont waste your time looking....just boys being boys....

Thankfully the nooners helped to fix things a bit.

Ha I saw. I lurk in the shadows a lot (and I bought a new phone since last year so just now signed in). 

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hey Matt....Good do see you.  Always a good sign when folks like you are stopping in.  You liking where were at?  Nooners came in pretty close for 144 hrs out.  

Love the ensembles coming around, but there has been SO MUCH SHIFTING in the short-term though of just our boring pattern for the next few days, so I follow the ensembles to see where the real trends lie. Being in the bullseye 140+ hours out though in this shifting pattern tends to lose confidence, so we'll see. Good to see a true Miller A though...it feels like it has been a while. 

Well, damn. Glad I bought that new snow blower. 

Hope you all are doing well!

15” storm total in Manheim, and still going moderately. 

As a whole, this is one of my favorite storms. 3 days of snow falling is fun. 

13” in Manheim, Lanc Co as of the last measure. 

Closing in on a foot in Manheim, Lanc Co. 

and still puking, meteorologically speaking. 

I’m surprised at the expanse of sleet in the Philly area. That LLJ must really be cranking. 

Puking gigantic snowflakes in Manheim. Wow. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll be over w/ snowmobiles tomorrow and show you how to play in this stuff....and not forecast it!!

and I'd say about 5"ish here in Akron.  Gonna measure tomorrow early and see what we get after the rakage ensues tomorrow.

Haha bring it! We back to a farm and it’s usually snowmobiles 24/7 when it snows.  

About 4.5” at chateau de la Moore in Manheim. 

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I have 16 entries so far.  Not bad.  I'll allow one edit to your guess before the deadline of midnight.  Simply submit updated guess off the original post you made to make it easier for me to update your number.

 

17.9”

1.5” liquid

42 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think @paweather @pasnownut @AllWeather would need a cigarette if the RGEM verified.

A cigar and a glass of Johnnie Walker Blue Label, please. 

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

As allweather was saying earlier, it’s a balancing act to deliver the right message but to put 14” here as upper end 10% doesn’t get it.   

I agree, and those numbers will probably change with today's full 12z suite in (or maybe after 00z tonight). 

Communicating this information to the average Joe is a science in itself. If you prepare people for a 6"+ snow, they typically will hunker down anyways. Then if totals go higher, it doesn't really affect them too much more other than additional clean up because they were already prepped to lay low (obviously if it's a crusher storm, the clean up can linger for days). On the contrary, if you prep people for a blockbuster, and it goes bust - well that affects people in a variety of socioeconomic ways (i.e. they closed their businesses when they didn't have to, took off work to stay home with their kids, etc). 

These forecasters must walk a fine line....it's easier for the public to understand if you go conservative and get surprised. However pitchforks are way more likely to come out if you overblow it and get surprised the other way. 

2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

@AllWeather I miss watching you on wgal.  I can picture you talking about the storm and trying to keep your inner weenie from getting out to the public.   

Thank you for the kind words! And yeah, was always a real balance striking the right tone for a variety of different types of viewers. Some HATE snow, while others love it, so you have to be careful. My goal was always just to lay out what we know and be honest about what we didn’t know, and what could “go wrong” with a forecast. I think people respect that. 

Giggity