Quincy

I expect light snow to reach the NY/CT and NY/MA border around 9 a.m. or so and then overspread the area from west to east. The heaviest precipitation amounts impact northern Connecticut into central and western Massachusetts. Quick warming at 850mb should push most areas over to sleet and freezing rain. The cold layer aloft up to about 925mb looks deep enough where the inland hills may get a thump of sleet, while the interior coastal plain could see several hours of freezing rain. By late afternoon precipitation tapers off, but freezing drizzle could linger for many inland areas through much of the night. Basically expecting 1-3" of snow and sleet, followed by a glaze of ice for inland areas. Best shot at 3" is across the higher terrain of the Berkshires and Worcester County. Keep in mind that this total accounts for snow AND ice. The only area that is a bit of a question mark is the I-95 corridor (approximately). Will have to keep a close eye on surface temperatures and see how cold air damming is verifying. Right now I think that the immediate coast gets a brief period of snow/sleet/ice and then changes to plain rain. Also, somewhat lighter precipitation amounts here may also result in less of an ability for near-surface temperatures to cool. In a marginal setup, heavier precipitation can help result in more freezing/frozen precipitation.

This isn't really a big event, but due to the amount of discussion it's had, I felt a map was warranted. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes brings an usual push of generally light snow towards the Appalachians. A new area of low pressure is forecast to form east of the mid-Atlantic region, enhancing snowfall amounts ever so slightly around the coastal plain. This map does not show it, but light snow should extend southward into Virginia. I believe that most areas will see an inch or less of snowfall, with interior Mass. seeing little or no snow at all. I'm not even all that confident for 3" amounts, but I added them as a potential outcome for northern Pennsylvania, the outer Cape (Cod) and the Islands of southeastern Massachusetts. The column is fairly cold, from the surface right up through 850mb and 700mb, promoting snow growth and higher than "typical" liquid to snowfall ratios. I could see 15:1 ratios on the shoreline and 20:1 further inland. The end result is a light, fluffy snow that pretty much sticks on contact to most surfaces. Basically, most areas may see up to an inch, with the highest probability of 1"+ amounts occurring along and south of a line from Binghamton to Bridgeport to Groton to Providence to Taunton.

Thanks to some feedback, I cleaned up this map and added a few additional reports. There are still some gaps in Litchfield County, a report of 4.0 inches in Torrington made more sense based off of observations and radar imagery for that area. You can see how the higher amounts were generally confined to the higher terrain, with lower amounts in the Conn. River and Shetucket River valleys. Below is a color, contoured map I put together:

Thanks for the report! I have a few more to add and a few that need to be adjusted due to possible error.

Overall, a decent forecast. There were a few 4"+ reports, with most of them falling across lower Litchfield County and northeastern Conn.  Along the shore, the 2" line ended up being right down to the coast for New Haven and Middlesex Counties.

Should be a nice event for the lower mid-Atlantic region. I wouldn't want to have to forecast for DCA/BWI/ACY as the NW cutoff looks pretty sharp!

The image is comprised of snowfall totals from various sources, some of which include the New England forum on here. Snowfall totals across Connecticut were pretty uniform around 3-4", although slightly lower amounts occurred along I-95 and there were a few isolated amounts around 5". I'll post a contoured color map within the next 12 to 18 hours.

I see this event as a widespread 2-4 incher across most of interior SNE. The tough call comes along I-95 for BOS-PVD-GON, as often is the case. I do think most areas even along the South Shore get a thump of snow/sleet at the beginning. I'm not really all that confident on widespread 4"+ amounts, but I've outlined an area with a black dotted line that could see locally 5-6 inches. I also expect precipitation to quickly shut off in the morning (by 7 or 8 a.m. across much of Connecticut) and taper to drizzle near and SE of I-84 with pockets of "snizzle" or flurries/freezing drizzle across the higher terrain. Connecticut Forecast: On the shoreline...(< 2 inches) Although there may be a period of snow and sleet, temperatures near the ground will likely remain above freezing through most of the event. Combine this with with a changeover to plain rain and areas near the coast should see less than 2 inches of snow/sleet. Inland...(generally 2-4 inches) Most areas should see a period of moderate snow before a changeover to sleet. Precipitation may actually end as a period of drizzle late Wednesday morning, with pockets of freezing drizzle in the hills. Before the changeover, generally 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet is expected. Highest elevations...(locally 4"+) Due to colder air in place, Litchfield County and northern Tolland County may stay near or below freezing throughout the entire event. The end result is NEAR 4 inches of snow with localized totals that could reach perhaps 5 or 6 inches.

Map above is based on reports from various sources, including this board, the National Weather Service and data viewers from across the state sent in. Event Summary: Scattered snow showers reached portions of western Connecticut by late morning on the 29th. This snow was associated with weakening low pressure over Pennsylvania. The main storm began to develop east of Virginia during the afternoon. Steady precipitation overspread the state from southwest to northeast between about 1 and 3 p.m. Most areas saw snow, but some ice pellets and graupel were reported near and southeast of I-95. Coastal New London County even switched to rain for a time. Colder air moved in and a heavy band of snow set up over central and eastern Connecticut. Snowfall rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour hammered portions of New Haven, Middlesex and New London Counties. This area of heavy snow eventually moved northeast and also impacted Tolland and Windham Counties. This band was a bit more intense than some predictions, resulting in higher snowfall amounts than forecast. Extreme western Connecticut was too far west to be affected by this heavy snow. The heaviest snow fell between about 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. before the shield of precipitation began to break apart. After midnight, the only leftover precipitation was occasional snow showers. By then, the bulk of the accumulation was over. I still find the Feb. 7, 2003 analog to be quite good for this event, with respect to Connecticut. It's clear that with a warmer solution, southeastern Mass. could not have had such high snowfall amounts. Shift the axis about 75 miles SW and you get a VERY good match-up. This analog showed up as a strong match about 2-3 days before the event: The point was that interior eastern Conn. and NW R.I. was favored for the highest amounts. Forecasts for the storm were decent within 24 hours of the event, but before that, most were playing catch-up. What was expected to be a minor event turned into a moderate one with several snowfall totals in the 10-12 inch range, especially across eastern Connecticut. My own forecast (from 5 p.m. the night before the storm) was too high for areas SW of Conn. and was generous as well for eastern Mass. With that said, I could have also pushed the 6-10" zone back further west: The image below shows approximate snowfall totals from across the region: Heavy snow focused in on the eastern half of Connecticut and the radar image below shows moderate to heavy precipitation pounding southern portions of the state. At the same time, some observed 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour for a few hours.

almost everyone in my graduating class (only like 8 or 9 albeit) averaged C and Ds in almost all of the 200+ level Calculus and Meteorology courses. Not that I did much better, but...lol