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Posts posted by Quincy

  1. Just now, stormdragonwx said:

    I hear ya man. I was right up the road from you. Watched that one promising storm fall apart over Florence. Looks like we are done around here as the other rain showers further south and west look to be struggling.

    It looked interesting for a short time. Logistically, I couldn’t go too far east or southeast since I have obligations in Oklahoma tomorrow morning. At least I was able to bail before it got too late in the day.

    • Like 1

  2. 1 hour ago, Quincy said:

    I’m at a clearing near Vina, AL on a hill. View is partially occurred and will be repositioning to the NE momentarily... Can sort of see a grungy wall cloud to the west. 

    Typical post-2016 Dixie chase for me. Bust!

    Central Alabama was really the place to be today. Not looking so hot for the southern burbs of Birmingham again...

    • Sad 1

  3. 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

    That cell and the cell to its south both have pretty big potential imo

    The I-20 corridor looks like it has potential for several more hours. The return flow is pumping unstable air back north. Hopefully more storms don’t take a beeline toward Birmingham...

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  4. Just now, ALweather said:

    That seems to be the trend lately. Is there a reason for this? Have they changed their parameters for issuing one or are they just more trigger happy than they once were?

    I also wonder how closely they use HREF probabilities as a guideline. They usually don’t deviate far from that. That popped a small tornado driven high risk at 12z. 

  5. 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

    Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this

    Surface winds are more backed up here, but low level flow is rather weak. I’m actually in NE MS “chasing” now, near the AL border. More like making a decision soon if I’m going to bail back to Oklahoma. 

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  6. 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    The directional shear didn't seem as impressive to me as some of the bigger outbreaks. But this one has some steep mid level lapse rates and strong wind velocities to maybe offset the lack of directional shear.

    Outbreaks are very difficult to predict in terms of how many SUP cells or intense tors. One or two ingredients can be altered slightly which is the difference between St Patty's Day 2021 and April 2011. 

    It’s still a bit early, but I agree with this, especially for the western part of the risk area, closer to the MS River. Sure, we have large CAPE and near-record lapse rates, but the wind field there is just about unidirectional now. 

    I think that getting big CAPE and large hodographs in the Southeast is exceedingly rare. The writing was on the wall when midday SRH maps looked relatively modest, west of the MS/AL border.

    Farther east has been a different story. CAMs remain aggressive with the zone of messy storm modes breaking into semi-discrete storms. It could still happen, but we’ll see. The air mass is recovering over central MS, but low level shear would need to improve. Of course you had that one long track supercell go largely unimpeded on the SE fringe of convection.   

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  7. 50 knot low level jet core advecting across southeastern Louisiana. Low level instability increasing across Mississippi/western Alabama. 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates in place. Very little convective inhibition left across Mississippi. Things are about to get real. 

    • Sad 2

  8. I wouldn’t write off the southeastern half of Mississippi yet. There has been a slight southeast trend with recent HRRR runs. Note that the axis of a boundary exists from roughly Jackson-Columbus-Huntsville with ongoing and soon to be new convection along and southeast of this boundary. 

  9. One thing to note is the ongoing conveyor belt across central/eastern Mississippi. The most ideal parameter space is progged to develop along and just southeast of this zone by midday/early afternoon. The HRRR has trended just a tick SE, zeroing in on central/eastern Mississippi into central Alabama. You can obviously have tornadoes elsewhere, but you can envision a scenario with several long track, strong tornadic supercells racing across this area. 

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  10. Initial look at a couple 12z soundings. JAN needs some boundary layer recovery, but that won’t take long with this setup. LIX is already quite unstable. Look at that CAPE...



    One thing I have noticed from early morning data is that low-level lapse rates are not very favorable yet. Mostly <6 C/km. That means it will probably be a few hours at least until action really gets going. Probably midday? Possibly late morning. 

  11. CIPS analogs deep into weenie territory now, but the pre-frontal signal for long track tornadoes in the MS/AL vicinity has been very consistent. It also aligns closely to a blend of CAMs. I won’t mention the top analog, but I will say the forecast LLJ tomorrow at 00z is stronger than any of the 15 analogs.


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  12. The 00z 3km NAM is either scary af, clueless or both. I cherry picked some soundings with 700-500mb lapse rates over 9 C/km with Tds in the lower 70s. Even area averaged soundings show lapse rates around 8 C/km with a small capping inversion. Important note is that low level lapse rates in this environment are marginal, in some cases <6 C/km.

    If the cold bias is correct, you’d have that tiny cap being obliterated. 

    Is it overly simplified to say a HRRR/3km NAM blend is one of the scariest scenarios you could fathom? HRRR is messy with widespread convection, while the NAM is just a little bit too cool in the boundary layer, resulting in very little warm sector convective initiation. 

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  13. 5 minutes ago, Quincy said:

    You would hope for a cap as well, given the fact that early day convection lifts north and could very well leave down multiple boundaries... that’s one of the key differences between a significant event and a super outbreak. 

    To clarify, I meant to suggest that you don’t want a weak cap with a myriad of outflow boundaries within that instability/shear environment. You can see “swarms” of supercells when there’s a weakly capped environment, in a case like this. 

  14. I’d say the range of scenarios start at being similar to last Wednesday and that’s hoping either it’s a convective mess or there is some sort of cap that tempers the warm sector... and higher end being a generational event. Hard to envision an evolution without at least a couple of intense, long track tornadic supercells. The wind profiles and lapse rates alone also suggest a much greater large hail threat than we saw last week. 

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