OHweather

20% POPs were ok the last two days IMO...mayybe could've gone 30 or 40% in the Snowbelt where the combination of the lake breeze and terrain can help spark a few more storms, but the areal coverage everywhere except for the Snowbelt was very low.  Today's cell ended up being relatively impressive and was slow moving over the eastern suburbs into Geauga, though it really was just the one big cell in that area.

Flood advisories and warnings are tough...it is pretty pointless when they throw them up as the rain is ending which happens more than it should, but you also don't want to issue them and have nothing happen.  Some minor poor-drainage flooding is not worthy of an advisory, but if you have enough that you have 6" or 12" of standing water on more than a couple of roads it needs something.  Not sure how bad today's was in your area.  When I'm contacting our clients for flood-related concerns it's really a fine balancing act between getting ahold of them after flooding is already ongoing and doing it too early when there's a high bust potential...unless it's nearly a slam dunk (solid area of slow-moving very heavy rain moving over a sensitive area) they're going to get some rain before they get contacted, although I try my hardest to do it somewhat before they hit whatever threshold I determine that I think they'll start flooding at.  The NWS is issuing for a totally different audience but does ultimately have similar concerns when issuing products like that.  1.13" isn't a minor amount, but unless the ground is already saturated with streams and creeks near bankful it is hard to get substantial flooding with that amount in an area like Chagrin that's not extremely urban. 

5 hours ago, buckeye said:

I just saw this.  Noooooo! You've left us!  Ugh Ohio is back to having no pro met representation on the board, ( kind of crazy when you think about it). 

Anyways, good luck to you and belated congrats!

Thanks! The downside to this field definitely is way more grads than jobs and a fairly high likelihood of having to move off the bat.  Ohio is not rich in met jobs...two NWS offices that you likely won’t get into without a masters or years of experience, and AEP which is almost the same thing.  I don’t count broadcast jobs because that’s a whole other beast that I had no interest in touching. 

I’ll certainly try to peak in this winter.  I won’t work 168 hours a week, hopefully. 

On 8/22/2018 at 1:58 PM, HO1088 said:

KCGF 221619Z 31015KT 10SM BKN020 BKN040 21/16 A2995+FC(funnel cloud-tornado) RMK +FC(funnel cloud-tornado) E1619 MOVD E
KCGF 221556Z 31015KT 10SM BKN017 BKN030 21/16 A2996+FC(funnel cloud-tornado) RMK +FC(funnel cloud-tornado) B1556 6NE MOV NE

Wonder if that was the waterspout reported off of Willowick around noon that day...always a fun METAR.

Anyways, it just dawned on me with the lake effect showers and waterspouts this week that as we approach September, lake effect season is just about upon us (of course, it'll be rain for the next several weeks if there is any).  With moving to Jersey and starting the job in July this summer has flown by for me.  Luckily most of the East Coast doesn't really get wintry threats quite as early as the Great Lakes can.

22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Congrats on the job.  Sucks that another poster is moving out of the region though.  

9 hours ago, NEOH said:

Congrats on the new job! Sorry to hear that you will be leaving. I always look forward to your forecasts and input throughout the Winter. As DTA mentioned, we had over 100" of snow out this way so no complaints. We made a late rally which changed things dramatically. 

Good luck with the new job and take care! 

Thanks guys! I’m sure I’ll still check in on occasion. I’ll miss the lake effect. 

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Congrats on the job.  Sucks that another poster is moving out of the region though.  

Thanks.  It is bitter sweet for sure, for a number of reasons.  I’m happy to get a job in the field, this one seems like a good fit for me, I’m not a big fan of moving away but ultimately I have more reasons to take the job than not...a lack of met jobs that you can get into right out of college around here is a big reason.  Either way, I’m sure I’ll still drop in at times as time permits me to. 

Just tallied up my spread sheets...a total of 93.5” here this winter here.  Certainly not bad, a little above average.  Would give this winter a B here, but can see how grades range from A to D across northern OH and NW PA dependent on your exact location.  After last winter’s crap fest and spending the previous 4 in SE OH, it was nice.  

And, this will be my last winter in NE OH, for a while at least.  Will be moving to New Jersey for a meteorology job in July.  It will be a reduction in annual snow, but it is in an area that can see big snows from those Nor’Easters and is in the somewhat snowier NW corner of the state which averages an ok amount.  Plus, they have clients in the OV/GL (including Cleveland) so I’m sure I’ll check in and live vicariously at times.  

12 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Well the snow spotters at ERI were just quoted saying they are not measuring snow by the generally accepted guidelines of 4 measurements every 6 hours... measuring in 3 hour intervals during the day when compression is highest then at an 8 hour interval overnight when compression is less. Also they are summing 5 daily measurements instead of the accepted 4. I believe this should make the data unofficial!





.

 

Ugh. Yeah. That’s not good. 

I’m hoping ERI doesn’t get enough snow tonight to hit 200” on the season.  I do believe they’ve gotten 170-180” which is still very impressive, but given obvious measuring issues at times this winter with bad over measures I hope they don’t get the distinction of being the only large city to get a 200” winter.  

Let's see how this does.  Actually a pretty good W to WSW flow setup later tonight into Tuesday morning with a deep layer of steep lapse rates, synoptic moisture and moisture from Lake Michigan, and a decent shot of synoptic lift from a shortwave moving by Tuesday morning. I think there's a pretty intense W-E band for a time tomorrow morning with 1-2" per hour rates in the northern Snowbelt.  Assuming it hits the higher terrain for any length of time, several inches should be doable with temps below freezing. 

Hate to say it, but I think there could be a few inches of snow in parts of the snowbelt Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Enough instability for lake enhancement, with a potent vort max dropping across the lake bringing a nice shot of synoptic moisture and lift.  Winds swing from WSW to WNW as it goes by.  Think there's a general area of snow showers that moves through giving much of north-central and NE OH a dusting, with a band of more robust LES that starts off near the shore and swings inland across all of the snowbelt and probably the Cleveland area early Tuesday that could drop a few inches on the northern Snowbelt and maybe a couple of inches on the Cleveland metro.  

1.3” here.  Wasn’t paying much attention and a bit of a surprise.  CLE even reported 1”/hr rates in one of their hourly obs. 

Measured 4.9” here about 40 minutes ago. Nice surprise.  It’s been snowing since so I’m sure I’m at or a bit over 5”

Those are some insane pics!  Congrats on getting the property...definitely one of the better spots downwind of Lake Erie for snow. 

There will be a little more LES this afternoon through early Friday...not much, but if there's an upstream lake connection there could be a few inches, most likely downwind of Lake Huron into NW PA.  Maybe a synoptic snow threat around the middle of next week. 

Had a hard time getting a good measurement on the new snow since it started melting in the warmer/thinner spots as it was still falling, but will estimate around half an inch for an event total of 4.6”.  If it was January I probably would’ve gotten a good 1-2” during the day today. 

Measured 1.4” new as of 9am for an event total of 4.1”.  It’s been snowing decently since, at times moderate and blowing some.  

Only 0.6” since my last measurement for 1.7” so far.  In the few areas that were bare that new snow has actually melted.  About 4” on the ground on average.  Nice squalls lined up into MI sliding across the lake over the next few hours so we will see how it goes. 

1.1" here overnight.  Just had another squall drop a quick quarter inch.  The squall potential across much of the state looks good this afternoon and evening.  A few strikes out lightning could even occur. 

Complicated setup over the next couple of days, but there will be rounds of snow with accumulations likely.

A shortwave/weak surface low going by this afternoon is causing some flurries and light snow with no real accumulations with temps above freezing.  Tonight this wave and lift pull off to the east, but a relatively unstable airmass currently over lower MI/IN/NW OH will drift east across the lake tonight.  Though the snow showers over lower MI are largely diurnally driven, the steep low-level lapse rates and good moisture will slide east.  Mixing over the low to mid 30s water of Lake Erie should cause this airmass to produce light to briefly moderate lake effect snow showers this evening into tonight across parts of NE OH and NW PA as the corridor of moist/unstable low-level air slides east.  The RAP forecast soundings have good moisture/lapse rates up to 7-8k feet at CLE as this airmass moves overhead this evening with NW winds.  The NAM soundings are drier/more stable, but have generally found that an airmass that produces widespread diurnal snow showers overland will produce some lake response as the diurnal snow showers over land decrease.  With a NW flow expect the higher terrain from the secondary Snowbelt south of CLE east across the primary NE OH Snowbelt and interior NW PA to have the best shot at some accumulations tonight.  Duration of favorable conditions is only a few hours in any given area and organization doesn’t look great, but the layer of instability appears deep enough for moderate bursts.  Tend to think a dusting to up to an inch or inch and a half is likely tonight downwind of the lake, with the best shot at around an inch or so in the higher terrain. 

Perhaps a brief lull late tonight before the next potent shortwave/vort max passes late Tuesday morning.  The strongest lift from this vort max may track a little southwest of the Cleveland area and NE OH, however, some increased lift along with a lobe of upstream moisture and the layer of instability deepening to over 10k feet should allow for a decent period of snow showers Tuesday morning with this feature.  Some models take the upstream moisture towards the central highlands in this period, but with a NW or NNW flow I don’t buy the Lake Huron moisture moving that far southwest.  Think it will affect the Cleveland area and perhaps secondary Snowbelt, and the rest of NE OH.  The best snow in this period may miss NW PA to the west, but some increase is possible in this area.  Some bursts could put down a quick inch or two of snow Tuesday morning downwind of Lake Erie in NE OH as the vort max goes by, however, again a lack of organization and fairly short duration, along with known difficulties accumulating during the day this late on the year, hard to get excited about much more.  Outside of the Snowbelt, expect to see diurnal snow showers that are briefly heavy pop up.  Best shot at some light accumulations outside of the lake effect may be in the central highlands where upslope may focus snow showers a bit more and where temps will be a couple of degrees cooler.  Anyone could see a quick/likely brief dusting though Tuesday as the snow showers ramp up overland. 

Any more organized LES by Tuesday afternoon will likely break up, however, with remarkably cold 500mb temps of around -40C expect numerous convective snow showers to continue across much of the state Tuesday afternoon.  The snow showers will be briefly heavy and may quickly produce a dusting where they track.  In the higher terrain, there may be somewhat better odds at enough snow showers during the afternoon for a little additional accumulation, though normally this time of year any accumulations from these convective snow showers melt pretty quickly between showers.  Temps outside of perhaps the higher terrain in north-central and northeastern OH/NW PA where it will be close to freezing will be in the mid to upper 30s between snow showers.  The main concern with the diurnal convective snow showers will be visibility reductions and perhaps briefly slick roads. 

A sharp surface trough drops across the lake into north-central and NE OH Tuesday evening.  The models have shown this feature for several runs and it appears to be tied to a vort max at 700mb rotating around the western edge of the trough.  The vort max may cause a further intensification of the diurnal snow showers late Tuesday afternoon from western OH to SE OH, and as the sun goes down any lingering intense snow showers could drop a quick half inch or inch before weakening overnight with the loss of daytime heating.  The big concern will remain significant visibility reductions and brief slick roads.   Downwind of Lake Erie, the sharp surface trough when combined with soundings showing instability and moisture to over 13k feet will likely result in a brief but intense period of squalls during the evening.  Moisture from Lake Huron again looks to work into NE OH with this feature.  Some global models bring the Lake Huron moisture towards Mansfield again in this timeframe, but with a NW to NNW flow will again side with the hi-res NAM and RGEM that drop the Lake Huron moisture into the Cleveland area and surrounding Snowbelts.  With this burst occurring near or after sundown it should accumulate downwind of Lake Erie.  The best may again be in NE OH as opposed to NW PA in this timeframe given closer proximity to the mid-level vort max and track of the upstream moisture.  Organization (lack thereof) and short duration will probably limit amounts, but given the very deep instability and sharp nature of the trough, a quick dusting to locally 3” is possible downwind of Lake Erie Tuesday evening, especially in the higher terrain where it’ll be a little colder and where precip amounts will be maximized.  This may cause a period of hazardous travel conditions. 

Another little shortwave/spoke of synoptic moisture/lift drops through Wednesday morning.  Some disagreement to how far west this gets.  NW PA looks like a good bet, and many models do at least hit the primary NE OH Snowbelt.  Cleveland area is iffier, though the 18z NAM and RGEM do get a burst of snow as far west as the secondary Snowbelt.  With decent looking snow ratios, a favorable WNW to NW upslope flow, duration of perhaps several hours in NW PA, and enough low-level instability for decent lake enhancement, this may produce decent accumulations.  Snow rates of an inch per hour may occur in the higher terrain.  Will expect 3-6” in interior NW PA, 2-4” in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, and 1-2” in the higher terrain of the secondary NE OH Snowbelt late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.  This is all dependent on how far west the lobe of synoptic moisture/lift gets, which is uncertain.  Adjustments up or down are possible.  Should be a decent lull Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday between systems. 

For total accums…in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, am going around 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 2-4” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for 4.5-10.5” (will call it 4-8” for now).  Some melting may occur during the day Tuesday between snow showers.  In the secondary Snowbelt am figuring 0.5 to 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 1-2” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for about 3-6” total.  For NW PA am thinking 4-8” in the higher terrain, as the snow through Tuesday evening may not be that impressive there, but that will likely be made up for late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.  Some models have more QPF there Wednesday morning, so that will have to be watched.  Will also drag 1-3” into the central highlands and also the rest of NE OH south of the Snowbelt due to decent bursts of snow working south from the lake, especially Tuesday evening.  Do think all of OH is at risk for some quick bursts of snow producing a dusting Tuesday into Tuesday evening.  With a short fetch off the lake and milder temps near the water, am expected a good bit less snow near the lakeshore than in the higher terrain inland. 

The period between late Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM may prompt some advisories in NW PA and perhaps the higher terrain of the NE OH Snowbelts.  If the wetter solutions pan out for early Wednesday inland Erie County could flirt with needing a warning. 

Here's my map for NE OH:

Yeah, it’s pretty obvious that the ERI total is off by a significant amount.  It’s been a consistent issue all winter.  It’s like they’re clearing the board every hour and then adding a few inches on every 12 hours on top of that.  They had like 20” more snow than the next highest report from 7am on Christmas through 7am on 12/26 during the “record” lake effect event, and there were other measurements very close by that were much lower.  I have no idea how much the total is off by this winter but it’s probably a laughable amount, possibly a few feet.  I don’t know how that can happen. 

0.7" here additional today.  Storm total of 10.8" and a seasonal total of 81.5".  Decent winter out here.  

42 minutes ago, NEOH said:

We need these favorable wind directions earlier in the season. There's a ton of snow out there... feels like mid-winter, but I would be content with closing the books on this winter. 

Yeah, it’s unusual to get a lot of lake effect in March...imagine if the lake was at late November water temps.  This has been a decent week or so here. 

I’ve probably tacked on a little more from off and on snow showers today that have been briefly intense.  

We may see some more organized lake effect for a few hours later this afternoon and evening with instability and moisture to 7-8k feet, some pre-seeding from Michigan, and a well-aligned flow near 280.  With a ridge moving in lowering inversions and causing us to lose the cyclonic flow overnight I doubt it surprises as much as the other night, but could see some 1-3” type accumulations in spots thru this evening.  

We get another cold shot Tuesday-Wednesday.  The Euro has 500mb temps around -40 which is impressive and indicative of a deep cold airmass.  Winds look NW to NNW Tuesday-Wednesday with potentially some lobes of good moisture rotating through.  Despite the short fetch, I have to think there could be some more plowable lake effect Tuesday-Wednesday, especially if we time a period of better snow with night.  If there are any upstream connections there could be enough for some sort of advisories at some point.

7 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

I am glad you guys are getting good snows, awesome and nice pics! Getting my fair share here, about 8" total from yesterday and overnight til this morning. University weather cam continues to show some snow.

However, that is not my point of this post...

In the grand scheme of things it is not all that important, but since my co-workers just laugh at me and my passion for snow, I am going to share with you fine folks. The Erie Airport snowfall recording is completely, totally, & hysterically inaccurate. I don't know how to illustrate it otherwise, so below is the screen shot of CLE Snow Reports from last night.

Unless it is a typo, that top spot in Erie County at the Erie Airport of 6.1" is absurd. My employment is just down the road from there - it did not snow at all yesterday, some flurries from time to time and often partly cloudy. The idea that 6" of snow fell in the 12 hour window of 9am til 9pm on 3/8 is crazy. Heck, even thru this morning as of 9am - a 24 hour window - the total snow is about 2" max here where I work.

I just further cements in my mind that the snowfall record for Erie this winter in nowhere near the number of inches listed.

 

Hmm.  Well, I’m glad you got a decent snow at home finally.  

As for the airport, they recorded 3 hours of moderate snow in the evening with 0.29” of liquid.  I’m not sure if that was from the gauge or a core sample of the snow.  If it’s from the gauge, it was windy so it’s possible it under caught the liquid a bit.  Either way, it seems like some sort of stretch for them to get 6” out of it, but not completely impossible. If right down the road you came in today and there was no where near 6”, that does make it more suspicious.  I asked CLE a couple months ago about some of the measurements there and never got a response.  

2 hours ago, Benadrill said:

It didn't really snow much here. You can still see the grass poking out of the snow in a lot of lawns.

There were a couple of lake enhanced events since January where the winds turned NW and produced well in your area and into Summit and Portage...I guess one had to go the other way eventually. 

6.5” additional overnight for a total so far of 8.3” from “round 2” and 10.2” storm total.