Bubbler86

You non mod's are making some good points here. Saw the topic was hot so stopped in to check why. It is good of rjay to try and explain but one of the larger issues, at least in my opinion, is the general posting demeanor of Mod's. It's my opinion that mod's should not troll, post insulting emoji's or really say much of anything in a negative manner...sort of in the vein of how a policeman is supposed to be an upstanding citizen. Obviously reality is not like that but some mod's are outright unhinged in OT and it's a bad look. With saying that, I think that if most/all mod's posting habits were a little more moderate and less conducive to being a part of the problem, the general public would have a lot less issue with all things moderation in general.

I understood your post to be about the general long wave pattern and it is spot on. It's just a model run but anything resembling winter is transient. Could snow of course but during the entire run it only gets near or below 20, at MDT, one evening.

Watch it pal!

My favorite and its not even close. We have a place we rent, on the river, that accepts Pets.

I do not like backwards either. It ruins the day with nausea.

Did you catch the Rebel Yell on the way by?

Oh yes. And it opens early (in the summer of course) so you can ride it before the rest of the park opens.

I would prefer to have it a bit farther south and ride the Griffon at Busch Gardens during a snow storm :-)

It's been a long time since I have been in Salisbury but it seemed to be a bit "behind the times" last time I was there.

Getting stuck in Salisbury? Eh...LOL.

There are some 12"+ totals on the 18Z GFS for the Chessie area. That is not too common to see.

You all are really having fun today. In Etters right now and it's 53 degrees. Another over achiever.

The tracks are not running through our hood on this specific run. A train of cutters. 384 GFS has a MEC's for us but how often do we say that? Too often.

"Wave 1" gets a lot of the upper midwest. The GFS has a train of snows lined up for some of them.

I very much think so, yes. Still in the first 1/3 of the season. (Met). Is it too early for it be discussed in the MA thread as people use the board for solace and counseling? Nope. LOL.

If we get a decent one (especially both Western and Eastern PA simultaneously) we will probably quickly forget the pain of the pattern change that never came....but until then, we indeed have to keep searching for nuggets.

We have had great snow maps and nothing to show, so lets try reverse psychology, eh? It is getting to the point that we cannot go a full run without 50's or 60's.

Is that a Hex sign in Alaska?

As MJS and I posted earlier, there could some temp records challenged this weekend. Thought I would lay them out again as I see it. Daily Max Different suites have daily highs getting within 5 degrees of records Friday (65), Sat (64) and Sun (62). Friday seems the least likeliest right now. The Sat/Sun thing could be the somewhat rare two for one record as Sat's highs may happen at 11:59PM. If it is 65 at that point, it would break both the Sat and Sun records over the course of a minute. But as of now the mostly likely of these to be broken is still Sunday as most models keep the Sat temps under the threshold. Daily Min On the daily min side, the record for Friday is 41 and Saturday it is 44. Just going by this AM's numerical predictions, both of those numbers are at great risk of being topped with the temps never leaving the mid 40's on Friday and upper 40's on Saturday.

The reasoning behind saying it could get exciting is that the lsv really needed a small bump north to remove itself from the outer periphery. No reason to get excited by one outlier run....unfortunately the 6z falls back in line with the others.

0Z GFS. MA Mauler. Digging even better this run. Just a tad more North on the transfer and its going to get exciting.

Just model discussion, not a forecast....I think it's tricky with the slightly delayed frontal passage. Farther north is ok as long as it is a bit farther east. But as modeled there is a chance of some decent snow maxes in the transition zone. With the cmc not even acknowledging a formation at that time, it's still suspect though the icon defintely tipped its hat to the gfs at 18z.

There is our Jan 3rd precious again...starting off warm though its definitely going to snow over some of the LSV on this run.