Bubbler86

The Euro is deeper and more "energetic" than the Icon, but the low positions, if you follow the complete path of the storm, are about as close as you can get in a system 5 days away. Example below of hour 132. The Euro is a classic Chattanooga Choo Choo with reformation on the coast.

Also, one of my favorites, the storm will pull down air from Canada.

That is the thing, though. GFS is seemingly on its own with this scenario of a foot or more. Rgem/CMC have somewhat similar qpf amounts but a warmer column so half the snow. Do not have access to the 6Z Euro. Icon and Nam do not separate the two SLP's to do much of anything N MA wise. Hwrf has some qpf but again, warmer.

Close to 20" in South Central VA through the next 7 days of the GFS. I will take the under on that.

Lots of virga apparently. The land truth only shows snow in the far S/E vs. that sim radar shot.

We have had about 1/2" the last 12 hours.

Take it or leave it, but the Icon is very interesting for late week. A Chattanooga Choo Choo. LSV wise, almost perfect trough placement for land based Miller A scenario.

The GFS does have that accumulating snow but it is on its own...cannot find anything else that supports it. The closest is the long range HWRF but its not really that supportive.

I am pretty interested in what plays out over the next 36 hours. The latest Nam, though veering a bit toward having a definable storm in the South East, is still so far off from the GFS depiction that it's a bit shocking. Precip field is multiple hundreds of miles apart between the two.

The Oz GFS was not good for the 1/7 system but forget why. For this far out, the 6Z GFS and 0Z EC both look remarkably similar over us both at the surface and 500MB/Jet Stream. GFS is just slightly more progressive.

Up until now the GFS had little support but the HRRR just gave it a bit. Not to the Northern Extent of the GFS but a more widespread snow event for some.

Yea, too much of a "good" thing. Bad timing for you.

6Z GFS pretty much on its own here but shows accumulating snows in the Southern and Eastern LSV for tomorrow night/Monday AM. Also surprised no one posted about the 1/7 system. Both the EC and GFS just a tad too far WEst with the storm track, for the LSV, but gets most areas North and West of the LSV. 1/3 1/7

I remember watching your area with envy!

50 to bring in the new year here. 49 at Mdt.

Gfs v. Nam still in play.

I was hoping it missed us so I could more easily get out tomorrow. Nam does miss us most of Sat night...at least the heavier stuff.

Hmm, it seems to get you pretty good tomorrow AM.

The Alabama game was the only one where they gave up more than 17 points. Just remembered the Big Ten has a shot for redemption against the Razorbacks tomorrow.

Most modeling seems to point to a much chillier start to the New Year (after this weekend). Snow? Who knows. LOL.

That is one of my biggest complaints about all things NCAA (at least major sports). I am a big UVA fan, did not attend, and it seems like each and every season is an underdog story. Kids go where the money is more likely to fall into their laps. UVA Basketball broke through a few years ago but football has not been close since the 1990's Shawn Moore and Herman Moore teams. NCAA football is a popularity contest. I had a few friends where were confident GA was going down today. Feel bad for the UM fans through these first 3 quarters at least.

Thanks very much for the ob's and fun convo. Also nice to meet other folks though you already snuck in here from time to time anyway. Lol. Happy New Year.

Seems one of the Americans is going to come away red faced unless it ends up fairly evenly split. Speaking of even...or not even...SEC.

Crazy differences in the Nam and Gfs supposedly using similar data. One of them may take a beating with the Jan 3 event.

That is even more of an issue than the MD/PA thing. Do they have to pay sales tax on a new car or not?