Bubbler86

You eating a big bag of GFS?

Not sure if it was mentioned but MDT set (or tied) Min Max records on both Dec 30 and 31.

It's only 54 over here. A bit of turn around today. No sun here.

MDT record today is 62 in 2000.

Speaking of that, this post from PSU in the MA is some good info as the flow really is backing. Seeing this WV loops really affirms that there is a big storm coming for someone (as long as it gets far enough north into the cold sector) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv-mid The WV loop is a thing of beauty. The flow is really backing in the TN valley. This has a classic look for the mid Atlantic! Btw I still like to look at the WV sometimes just to get a feel for the flow. I’ll never forget being in the psu weather center the day before the Jan 2000 storm trying to argue with the meteorologists on duty that it was clear from the WV and IR that the mid and upper levels were way more amplified and the flow was backing much more than any of the nwp was showing over the Miss Valley. They were pretty dismissive…”it’s only 24 hours, the models would be picking up on it” lol

CMC continues your hope for late week! That is something.

GFs sim radar has virga all the way up into NY. Fairly extreme difference between it and the actual qpf predicted.

CMC seems like a decent compromise between the Rgem/GFS and the others. More central VA for the jackpots. It did trend north from 0Z though.

Your MA persona is coming out!

I am always up for anything that forms in the Tn Valley and swings under us....it also looked great on the CMC and Icon (and still does.)

If the GFS is right, you are still in the game for some inches.

Late week GFS does not form anything until well off into the Atlantic.

Had to pull this over from the MA. LOL

Euro was very late to the game but can they hoist the advisories with only the GFS as backing (and whatever they use of their own met skills?)

If the Euro is close to concurring, State College needs to sound some alerts. Still enough doubt without the Euro though. Nothing is as amped as the GFS.

@Itstrainingtime has precious little time to get that last mow in if the GFS is right.

24 hr map

Yep. 10-1

Best Panel on the GFS. That is ultra heavy snow. LOL. Looking on my mobile. Thought it was the mix line at first glance.

GFS looks good through 18.

LWX seems a bit low/restrained with their expected totals in the DC area

Yea, it has stayed pretty consistent the last few runs as well.

Yep, Icon was way south. This is the GFS's storm though. Rgem held serve.

I am just watching :-). Here is what I am referring too. Mix in the middle of snow. It's close on some models

They are fighting a two headed issue down there. Soundings keep showing very close issues with mixing even on the Northern periphery just north of the big cities.