Bubbler86

Between Noon on Sunday and Midnight Sunday night. It varies on different models. Most models are after dark Sunday evening.

19 here right now. 16 ended up being the low.

I am not sure but seems like a lot of players to me. The timing of it, the day after, suggests some players were not fully into the game.

The gfs still has the week of the 20th storm. Gem a more traditional Miller A inland runner this weekend with lots of potential to get a bit better. Good times for model tracking. Weird to say after yesterday's euro look so poor.

If I get a low approaching the south and east, I am going to rely on the great valley to keep it frozen...not snow but not rain either. 15 here. It is much less cold than last night as to stepping out and how it feels. More moist. The Pittsburgh group may need to welcome us for a chase.

I cannot recall that happening at all in the last 3-4 years. Plenty of app runners coming from the south west but this slp would be approaching PA from the south east in this scenario. Appears to be moving North by North West.

Had to look on this small screen but at least it was TT which is better for the phone. Did not seem to get the system any where near the gulf like the Op gfs if i saw it right. More TN valley and then maybe a jump to NC? Kind of screws the snow for the Carolina folks.

Yea, that was my wonderment. Very small and very oblong. But thanks for the confirmation. Not sure what to make of it look less clean that 12z 84 which would be 72 now.

Thanks. Not sure if I consider that a full close off despite that small area in the middle. Maybe someone who knows more than me could opine as usually a close off is a little more clean. Larger, more circular.

Check out the upper dynamics 500 height and vertical velocity map.

Next is....say it.....say it.....the icon. Lol

Is it closed off at 500? Asking because I am not looking on my phone.

@Itstrainingtime, 7 from the Tide enter the transfer portal a day after losing the title game? Funky. Like a jail break.

Still 16 here. Think it will sit there or go down a degree but probably close to low for the night.

Your final sentence is good advice. My comment was, as usual, based on current modeling and not a forecast or opinion. Highs in the upper teens before a potential miller a is sweet to dream about.

I was 3-4 lower than you last night so turn about time now. I doubt I get much lower tonight. I think I get over 50 tomorrow.

When the temps are in the low 30's in NC, prior to a Miller A (assuming best case), we are in for a fantastic situation.

That is classic for an extreme event. So rare to see that really happen recently.

16 here. HRRR has the temps holding within a degree or two of this and unbelievable staying above freezing tomorrow night.

Not sure this will mean anything to people here but I recently found out that one of the people that helped us "guide" the Jan 25, 2000 snow storm home, providing excellent analysis in model failures at that time , passed away 7 years ago. The storm was actually called the Scott Simard storm at that point (in the weather community). Scott was a fiery but brilliant weather tactician. He may have posted here (NE side) for a while under a pseudonym. Since this storm is being talked about so much, though it worth giving him a shout out. https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/wickedlocal-journalnewsind/name/scott-simard-obituary?id=9415810

I think this is a great point in the Jan 2000 surprised a lot of high population areas but in reality it much more limited in its runup and eventual areas it affected vs a March Superstorm '93 setup. Even the night before the Jan 2000 surprise storm, though weenies on #newx thought (knew) they had the storm pegged, models were limiting the potential issues down to NC. Accumulation from the Jan 25, 2000 surprise storm below. Note the quick cut off in the western half of PA. That storm is forever in the snow weenies hall of fame but without the Surprise component, its would not be at all considered on the level of a March '93. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/NJSnow-25Jan00.png

I saw a note on the MA board from a met, that the GFS is upgraded from the GEFS. That does not explain differences in track as much as why it may be different. With that said, we have seen a lot of times where the OP was not at all the middle of the road solution with the ensembles. The OP is a higher resolution as well. That most know and is mentioned but thought I would add here.

These member outputs are a good reminder to both not worry too much about inland but also not to broadcast that 2 feet is imminent. LOL.

Thanks for posting these maps.

I did not even look at the MA but I am guessing there are some JI like posts there.