Yea, was not saying anything to suggest bad vs. agree with Chris that we (even out this far) probably mix especially with the current depiction of the low(s) path.
Does the Nam redeem itself? I am not as eager to defend it as of late. It's never been, or ever will be, as bad as some make it out to be, buts its not been "hot" as of late.
The 18z euro was beautiful. Almost hesitated under us for a bit. If we had not let March 93 or Jan 2000 sneak into our minds (well me at least), the 18z euro would seem like a super win.
Watching the Upper layers on the models I keep seeing 850's breaking down far to the west of the "primary low" . Somethings up...it's not a simple cold to the left, warm to the right situation. We know 850 is driving to the west of the "L" on the surface maps but could it be driving in somewhat unison with the other wave? Just model talk. Waiting for a met to come shoot me down. I will not be offended.
I see it is a sort of Miller B like scenario but you are right, this is not your typical coastal takes over and goes into Bomb mode. The modeling shows this as being a mess with a new low that is captured. There is also the issue of the ULL 850 and 500 level energy that does not transfer completely at first.
Speaking of this, the 18Z GFS still has two surface reflections (at least) per this panel...but also some darn heavy snow in there. Note the mix poking up into S/W PA from the inland reflection which is supported by the ULL.
Consider this a board cheer up after the Nam. Not sure I trust TT Accum graphics but its what I have in front of me.
Reminder that the Icon does not show any Sleet or Frz in it's surface panels. Its snow or rain, that's it.
Icon trended west with the eventual track as well. More of a thump than the Nam but it goes from Winchester, To Rouzerville, then Bunions before lifting out of PA.