Bubbler86

Just remember there are two lows. The inland low (and its 850 partner) get right up to you. Will not say anymore as its your area.

A voice of reason? Good analysis. I said it was the worst nam run due to ground truth temps in the 40's (12Z got their as well but had more frz) but it could have trended a bit better.

Yea. And I was not aiming that at you vs. using your post as a way to avoid issues as both you and I were doing PBP and not forecasting. I want snow and lots of it so let's hope the Nam evolution is wrong.

Going to take the chance to here to comment, this is JUST a model PBP. Not a forecast, not a cheerleading effort, just facts on what the model says. If other suites show nothing like this, then dandy.

@Cashtown_Coop is going to have to cancel date night to PBP the 18Z Euro.

We can say its the Nam and ignore or use it as a tool. No matter what, the Nam was on to the Western extent of the 850's blitz from the very beginning. it could still be wrong but if not, it gets a gold star for its effort.

By far the worst Nam run. Temps well into the 40's S/E.

Hr 60 2M temps. Wow. Non event for many.

It's due to losing it from the west and east. A double assault. Cad cannot fight two sides. W Pa forum needs to toss this run.

Instant Nam update?

850's at 57 well up into PA as to 32 line. Most of South border PA is now frz west to east. The inland low gets too far up again. Inland wave sitting in WV at this point. Total failure if that happens. No good news from here so PBB over. LOL.

Snow entering PA at 54. Sleet in the S/W. 850's at that time. Cowboys may have won by this point.

Nam at 51 picks the SE coast 999 Low to put the L on....not the inland one.

The sleet and Frz will be blowing sideways.

Outside the frz vs snow column question, you just need a small shift in the Nam to really score. Less influence inland.

Decent shift East at 45. See if it matters in the end.

Man, to look at the Nam 36, I would think we are going to be getting a Hec's. High over NY, low in the gulf. S/W in Canada.

Anytime I see sleet getting into SW PA, I know I am toast unless something to my east starts deepening rapidly and closing off the assault. Like you said, its not depicted to the east right now. Its coming in right overhead.

I looked at one map and it the same Low swinging through the deep south situation.

Do not have the time to try and crack the code but would be interested to hear if someone can point out that the Nam algorithms are broken or there is something causing it to melt more than it looks like it should from the surface. But like you said, this is all digital and all that matters is the intrusion on the different layers. Both support change over from snow for most of the LSV and near by counties to the West.

You turned into a part timer.

Not much time to get off this complicated situation but may be right back in the same boat next weekend.

Not many concedes in here.

Yea, not many people have been talking about it and not totally sure why. Watching the model panels the last few days, the "L" has been flipping and flopping all over the place and these were not always zigzags. It was the model going toward any convective features or just picking one of the two for the L if both had the same pressure. Watching the 850 and 500 maps showed the dual nature more clearly. The dual nature sucks plain and simple. The Nam has been leading the way with this being our primary forecasting issue (especially for Western PA) but the storm is not here yet so it could be bunk come game time. But like usual, the faster the we get on the west side of the primary circulation of air, the less our column takes a beating.