Bubbler86

Hr 60 2M temps. Wow. Non event for many.

It's due to losing it from the west and east. A double assault. Cad cannot fight two sides. W Pa forum needs to toss this run.

Instant Nam update?

850's at 57 well up into PA as to 32 line. Most of South border PA is now frz west to east. The inland low gets too far up again. Inland wave sitting in WV at this point. Total failure if that happens. No good news from here so PBB over. LOL.

Snow entering PA at 54. Sleet in the S/W. 850's at that time. Cowboys may have won by this point.

Nam at 51 picks the SE coast 999 Low to put the L on....not the inland one.

The sleet and Frz will be blowing sideways.

Outside the frz vs snow column question, you just need a small shift in the Nam to really score. Less influence inland.

Decent shift East at 45. See if it matters in the end.

Man, to look at the Nam 36, I would think we are going to be getting a Hec's. High over NY, low in the gulf. S/W in Canada.

Anytime I see sleet getting into SW PA, I know I am toast unless something to my east starts deepening rapidly and closing off the assault. Like you said, its not depicted to the east right now. Its coming in right overhead.

I looked at one map and it the same Low swinging through the deep south situation.

Do not have the time to try and crack the code but would be interested to hear if someone can point out that the Nam algorithms are broken or there is something causing it to melt more than it looks like it should from the surface. But like you said, this is all digital and all that matters is the intrusion on the different layers. Both support change over from snow for most of the LSV and near by counties to the West.

You turned into a part timer.

Not much time to get off this complicated situation but may be right back in the same boat next weekend.

Not many concedes in here.

Yea, not many people have been talking about it and not totally sure why. Watching the model panels the last few days, the "L" has been flipping and flopping all over the place and these were not always zigzags. It was the model going toward any convective features or just picking one of the two for the L if both had the same pressure. Watching the 850 and 500 maps showed the dual nature more clearly. The dual nature sucks plain and simple. The Nam has been leading the way with this being our primary forecasting issue (especially for Western PA) but the storm is not here yet so it could be bunk come game time. But like usual, the faster the we get on the west side of the primary circulation of air, the less our column takes a beating.

See below though some of the more snowy models do not show much sleet in their precip panels.

MDT Blizzard.

Miller A (before)-A jumped mess of transfers and dual lows now. You are still in a good position though, right?

If I had to do that call, I would push the yellow dotted line a bit back toward Pitt for now.

It's very possible. If the Nam's depiction of the waves is close to correct, sleet is a much larger issue that the Euro or Gem showed.

Did you tell him or her to hold on, the Euro was coming in? Appease them by pointing out that its not slow like the Nam. Euro, like the GEM, was better at not pushing the westward extent of the 850's failure over our way. Here is the worst 925 and 850 for the LSV. On the 850's, we were about to lose them from the west the panel before this but the coastal has collapsed it on this panel.

Go ahead and get the plow ready.