Bubbler86

Here is some text data for spotters. MDT has 2.4" in their daily summary for yesterday but storm total should include anything they get today. &&a cold end to the week. Latest Public Information Statement: 000 NOUS41 KCTP 171209 PNSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-180009- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 709 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Pennsylvania... ...Franklin County... 2 WNW Shippensburg 0.09 in 0615 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Pennsylvania... ...Adams County... East Berlin 3.0 in 0920 PM 01/16 Public 1 SW Mcsherrystown 2.9 in 0800 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Littlestown 2.0 in 0723 PM 01/16 Public Gettysburg 2.0 in 0844 PM 01/16 Public ...Bedford County... Hyndman 6.5 in 1007 PM 01/16 2 NE Blue Knob State Park 6.5 in 1130 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 3 WSW Ski Gap 5.5 in 0715 PM 01/16 Public 1 N Breezewood 5.2 in 0200 AM 01/17 Public Saxton 5.0 in 1019 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media Everett 5.0 in 1245 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Bedford 4.8 in 1019 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media 1 SSW Breezewood 3.5 in 0734 PM 01/16 ...Blair County... Altoona 2 5.8 in 1200 AM 01/17 COOP 3 N Ski Gap 5.5 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Bellwood 5.3 in 1200 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 2 N Altoona 5.2 in 1147 PM 01/16 Public 2 ENE Altoona 4.5 in 0854 PM 01/16 Hollidaysburg 4.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Public ...Cambria County... Spring Hill 3.5 in 0812 PM 01/16 ...Centre County... Boalsburg 6.0 in 1200 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 2 ENE State College 5.8 in 1130 PM 01/16 NWS Employee 3 NNE State College 5.8 in 0230 AM 01/17 NWS Employee 3 NNE Zion 5.5 in 1130 PM 01/16 2 ESE Port Matilda 5.3 in 1200 AM 01/17 NWS Employee 3 W Park Forest 5.0 in 1130 PM 01/16 NWS Employee 1 WNW State College 5.0 in 1200 AM 01/17 CO-OP Observer 1 ENE Millheim 5.0 in 1200 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...Clearfield County... 1 E Penfield 5.0 in 1000 PM 01/16 Public Curwensville 5.0 in 1019 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media ...Clinton County... Loganton 5.8 in 0130 AM 01/17 Public 3 NNE Hyner 5.0 in 1203 AM 01/17 ...Columbia County... 2 SW Fairmount Spgs 4.8 in 1210 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...Cumberland County... Shiremanstown 4.1 in 0946 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Shiremanstown 0.4 SE 4.1 in 0620 AM 01/17 COCORAHS Carlisle 3.5 in 0910 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Lemoyne 2.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Public ...Dauphin County... 1 SSW Linglestown 3.4 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Colonial Park 3.0 in 0920 PM 01/16 Public Harrisburg 3.0 in 0920 PM 01/16 Public 2 WNW Hershey 2.5 in 0845 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Hershey 2.0 in 0730 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Elk County... St. Marys 1.7 SE 8.6 in 0600 AM 01/17 COCORAHS ...Franklin County... 1 NE Waynesboro 4.5 in 0807 PM 01/16 Public 4 SSE Willow Hill 4.0 in 0935 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 2 WNW Shippensburg 3.1 in 0615 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 2 ESE Waynesboro 3.0 in 0756 PM 01/16 Public 2 WNW Scotland 3.0 in 0948 PM 01/16 ...Huntingdon County... Wood 0.1 S 3.1 in 1000 PM 01/16 COCORAHS Alexandria 3.0 in 0715 PM 01/16 Public 3 WSW Rock Springs 2.8 in 0742 PM 01/16 Public ...Juniata County... Port Royal 2.8 in 0727 PM 01/16 Public ...Lancaster County... Maytown 3.3 in 0902 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 2 SW Manheim 3.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Public 2 SW Manheim 3.0 in 0810 PM 01/16 3 N Millersville 2.5 in 0830 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Mount Joy 2.4 in 0759 PM 01/16 Churchtown 2.4 in 0900 PM 01/16 Public Millersville 2.3 in 0843 PM 01/16 Public 3 SSE Columbia 2.0 in 0722 PM 01/16 Public Ephrata 1.6 in 0905 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Lebanon County... Palmyra 4.0 in 1005 PM 01/16 Public 1 S Lebanon 3.5 in 1025 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Lebanon 4.8 N 3.0 in 0530 AM 01/17 COCORAHS Lebanon 2.8 in 0918 PM 01/16 Storm Chaser Annville 2.0 in 0936 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Lycoming County... 3 S English Center 7.8 in 0655 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 2 S Salladasburg 6.1 in 1216 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 2 WNW Montoursville 5.5 in 1130 PM 01/16 1 ENE Williamsport 5.5 in 1130 PM 01/16 Public 3 SW Loyalsockville 5.5 in 1140 PM 01/16 Montoursville 5.1 in 1200 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...McKean County... 1 E Mount Jewett 12.0 in 0558 AM 01/17 Public ...Montour County... 2 NW Danville 4.2 in 1200 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...Northumberland County... 1 NE Milton 4.8 in 1125 PM 01/16 1 S Northumberland 4.1 in 1200 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Montandon 3.0 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Perry County... New Bloomfield 4.8 in 1000 PM 01/16 Landisburg 4.0 in 0730 PM 01/16 Public ...Potter County... Shinglehouse 6.5 in 0225 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...Schuylkill County... Orwigsburg 4.2 in 1040 PM 01/16 2 ESE Joe Zerbey Airport 4.0 in 0935 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Auburn 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/16 ...Snyder County... Troxelville 4.5 in 1130 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Middleburg 3.0 in 0900 PM 01/16 Public ...Somerset County... 1 SSW Friedens 7.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Public 2 NNW Rockwood 5.0 in 0815 PM 01/16 Public ...Sullivan County... 3 SSE Dushore 8.7 in 0642 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 3 SSE Dushore 6.1 in 1222 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Laporte 3.8 in 1115 PM 01/16 Amateur Radio ...Union County... Lewisburg 4.9 in 1100 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...York County... Spring Grove 3.6 in 0913 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Glen Rock 3.5 in 0800 PM 01/16 1 ENE Seven Valleys 3.3 in 0834 PM 01/16 Loganville 3.3 in 0833 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 3 SE Brogue 2.8 in 0720 PM 01/16 Public 1 SSE York 2.7 in 0803 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 3 WNW Emigsville 2.7 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter East Berlin 3.4 ESE 2.4 in 0600 AM 01/17 COCORAHS 2 S Parkville 1.7 in 0810 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter &&

Not sure I saw this posted for TT.....TT's EC data is quite limited though.

It's post frontal and 2M temps are near freezing in the LSV but Nam even more vigorous for Thursday on the 12Z run as wave forms on the front. 2-4, maybe more, for the rush hour.

Ironically, along with its less stellar recent past, it is no longer Dr. No (EC). Just look at this weekend. GEM, GFS are NO...EC is yes.

Yea, just to clarify, although one user said the Nam nailed it, I think the general thought was that the Nam foretold that the low may go further west than some suites had it and that it would not be a pure snow event for much of the west like other models alluded to as well. So many people think the Nam is garbage that it leads to Nam apologists (like me) coming out in droves when it was not all bunk.

I am not familiar with this but curious. Is this the group new Washington DC?

It snowed in Florida (Pensacola) yesterday and some houses were destroyed by tornadoes. A little '93 like. https://twitter.com/NWSMobile/status/1482739803854712837?s=20

Speaking of the Nam

Wow, good find. Had not looked there yet.

I think the Nam had the track going over the central and western half of PA from the very start...or close to it. Pivotal goes back to 12Z Friday and the Low comes into PA on the Fulton/Franklin county line. But yea, the Nam was too warm in the UL's to start. I think the Nam was the only model to predict sleet in Erie but not 100% sure. Nam underestimated the sleet in lieu of too much Frz though.

It does seem to happen every year. I would not notice it that much were it not for the constant 'Why are we even talking about the Nam' I see on the MA board. I should not look there when the Nam is showing something unfavorable as I know what I am going to see and I let it irritate me. But yes, this seems to be a yearly thing as to having a model, Nam or no, that is on it's own and basically looked at as an outlier and assumed it cannot be right...and yet it is more than was expected. I did see you guys are still getting a decent amount of snow even now.

25 here right now. We ended up getting to 33 for a bit but then turned back downwards. Being on the west side of South Mountain did well for me this time.

Fingers crossed that is the tried and true side, like we talked about last night, and any weaknesses are already known and fixed since we get high wind from that direction so often.

The 6Z GFS looks like someone continuously digging a spoon into soup trying to get that last Matzo ball but having it fall off each time the spoon heads back up. Some 3-4 instances where a S/W dig down into the S/E US only to miss the timing with a Northern S/W and the ball falls off the spoon. It repeats this over and over. I suspect one of the next few runs finally sees that ball stay on the spoon and we are game on. LOL.

Hopefully we have more to track over the next 2-4 weeks and they get a redemption shot.

But how are the bunions? LOL.

LOL. I was typing up the same thing as you were. Nothing did perfect. They all added value and data to making the right forecast. I really frown on people casting off a model because it does not show what they want.

I think if one looked back it would see each model got different aspects of the system right. It seems the Nam did better synoptically/forecasting the large scale dry slots and eventually track of the low, but other models had a better handle on the initial slug of snow over us. I think the best thing is to take them all seriously and try to use all the data to make sense of how one things will play out or has played out in the past.

Nothing here right now but my car is covered again so we got a good 1/2" at some point this AM.

I forget which one as well but yea something I was looking at showed that Rain + getting up to you from MD.

Yea, when the storm first got into the Nam's range of 84, it showed what most here PA, MD, VA did not want and as usual there was a lot of "the Nam is out of range" talk. This happens every year. Sometimes the Nam screws up royally but it seems to be that outside being low on snow totals to start (re too much warm intrusion in the UL's), it did quite good at foretelling the important parts of the storm.

The Nam's snow maps the last few runs were closer to reality but the 1-2" it showed for the LSV initially busted low. Here is 6Z yesterday, basically 24 hours ago, and it was not too bad. I am guessing overall it did the best as most other models understated the warm intrusion and dry slot.

That is crazy low for you but reminds me of the model runs with 5 different levels of accums over Adams.

Just browsed some other forums and saw mention that it is sleeting in Erie. Prop's to the app running former primary for putting its mark on this one.

Surprised it has been so bad tonight. On the snow thing, those one or two 3" measurements in Waynesboro are a bit suspect. Wonder if they corrected that?