Bubbler86

12Z GFS doubles down on a rainy second half of the weekend.... drives the coastal even farther west. Definitely a large effect on Sun and Mon temps after an upper 60's/low 70's day Sat. GFS still has those 75-80 late afternoon temps later in the week though in adding 3-5 on top of low 70's at 18Z. Two nights it stays in the 60's which may be record worthy. CMC is not on the same page as the GFS and keeps the coastal farther away and has 7 days potentially over 70+ highs and one day in the 80's extrapolated.

Nooners, 55 sunny and very windy. Gusts near 30.

Looking at the wind profiles and clouds, on the HRRR, tonight feels like one of those "I just had a frost warning fail then a freeze warning fail, I am going down to 30 with no warnings tonight" type of night for some.

Saw a note on the MA board that Dulles airport scored two 33's and a 34 over the last 3 mornings. The lowest reading at either CXY or MDT seems to be 39. It appears that MDT has not hit 32 or below in October since October 19th, 2015.

GFS and NAM have a miserable Sunday now for 2/3 of the state....scattered rain (mostly GFS) and raw. CMC and Euro not buying it yet though. GFS/NAM highs in the 50's.

A smattering of below freezing temps many seemingly valley based as I have one not far from me but 300 feet down.

Low of 36 here. I see Cash is in the upper 20's. MDT 42.

The sun broke out here, but we never got above 47. However, it is still 46 right now. Both MDT and CXY went well above model progs I saw getting to 54 or 55.

RGEM had this at 12Z and did not think to mention but still there at 18Z. Predicting a similar result as last night where Wagons South has the better atmospheric conditions for a freeze. We see how well this verifies tomorrow. Low 20's in VA ridges.

Thanks! I added an MU comment yesterday. Hope I did not offend! LOL Interesting how different places have different interpretations for the growing season. As others have said, my grass is probably not going to abide by any calls for growing season to be over.

The AFD does not really delve into too much. They talk more about the extended.

My zone says low of 34. Maybe an update coming.

Great graphic from the Euro showing the forecasting challenge as depicted. You would think there would be rain in Eastern PA with this map but there really is not, just an air mass. Western Franklin in the mid 70's, Eastern in the 60's. EC is a day ahead of the other two in fully clearing the front mid week and lowering temps back to normal.

12Z CMC and GFS continue to suggest at least parts of the LSV will escape one (or maybe two?) day of the progged 5 day warm up when a back door/ULL front keeps temps in the 50's at least one day this weekend. Outside that possible chill for some this weekend, both models predict areas of the LSV to see a few days in the 70's (even an 80 possible at CXY) in the Sat-Wed period with the highest likelyhood of the double dight AN temps being Tue and Wed but still a chance even before that. One daytime high record would be in play on both the CMC and GFS....October 25th high of 76 at MDT which was set last year. Normal highs next week are 62 and 63 at MDT. Model Discussion/Not a forecast. Temps based on adding 3-5 degrees to the 2PM panels both for bias/recent verifications and additional warming post 2PM.

Nooners...44, windy, mostly cloudy and quite cold. Winds sustained in the 15 area with gusts to 25. Wind chill ~35

HRRR's low point for tonight...maybe knock a degree or two off this for a bit of bias seen sometimes. 3K NAM is colder on the ridges but was way too cold last night in not properly dealing with the clouds and wind.

I brought up a comment my neighbor made a few days ago. He expects me to go into his yard and clean up my leaves. LOL. I should have told him to show me the leaf serial number to confirm it came from one of my sugar maples and not my neighbor who also has them. I mulch every few days to try and keep it to a minimum though.

If we do not get a decent freeze tonight it is all but a guarantee.

Yep. It is indeed rare that we are both cold. That would be one big trough! Could get a situation where are backdoored and the rises stay a bit to our west while you are also in lower heights.

Interesting developments in the Globals for the weekend. CMC, GFS and Euro all have a back door front and possible light rain keeping one or the other of weekend days out of the 70's with a marine layer type day. Need the rain if we can get some. Euro is super warm next week.

Frost Watch took a beating here. 36 for the low and already up to 41. Looks like MDT bottomed out at 42 or 43. Clouds. Tallahassee FL hit 37 this Am.

That leaves Maytown as the last stalwart.

18Z GFS with only 4-5 days in the 70's for the LSV during the coming "heat wave". Funny we are talking how bad heat bills will be but hoping the GFS lowers that day total even more.

Well, that is not too bad. ~$1000 based on your cost mentioned this AM. As other have said, even a normal winter is going to knock $1000-$2000 extra out of some people's budget with oil or electric.

We decided to let it come on with a setting of 65. So, it will sparingly activate. In 3 days, we have potential highs 65-70 so not going to go crazy here.