The SER is primarily out of the picture/east based in the second week of March...if anyone cares....on the last few GFS runs and I believe GEFS as well.
CMC making its adjustments west as well....the boundary well north of where it was at 0Z. Great position of the high is not helpful when the air beforehand was not cold. The CMC does still transfer and still have a "winter storm" for much of PA but heading in the wrong direction.
It is detailed in depth on the MA thread (too much depth if you ask me) but the models keep underplaying the SER until we get close to an event. If this does not change fast it will end up being the largest bust of the winter IMO. That is not saying much though. It did make me chuckle that you were talking paweather 540 line. LOL
We have a deck that is covered but they deck boards allow bugs up sometimes. We have one flying around in our deck in mid January. It just took a few days of warm.
18Z Icon starts off HH with 4-6" Friday before any change over (LSV/N PA). Low is cutting though. HGFS moved a bit SE but still a rain storm for much of PA.
It is actually exciting that we have the chance late next week that Possibly going into a colder period beyond. I know the spinginista's do not like it. Nice out now. 47.