Yea, it has gotten so bad the last couple months that I hesitate to even look at the GFS at this point. The thing is the Nam, Icon, CMC had a similar wet period for Thur-Sun and they are are turning out to be wrong except Dr. Drought.
Yep. That has been a trend this summer. Euro did not do nearly this well over the winter especially in short term.
A ridiculous 75 degrees and 70% humidity this AM. This literally is Florida weather for the time of the day.
Hate to say it but we could have just posted the Euro as the official NWS forecast and would have been pretty much right. Euro shows little to no Precip for most of PA for the next 10 days.
I was actually thinking you had scored some the last two days. About 1/4" through most of your area. Not enough to help the river though. Here is 48 hour estimated rainfall.
Euro on a totally different planet for this weekend. Warm and no rain for anyone in PA. No rain for anyone until Central VA actually. Suppressed by a blocking High.
I thought they used a combo of underground water level, stream levels and actual precip. I know they cut if off the Tuesday before the Thursday map comes out. Mag mentioned this a few weeks ago, maybe he will plug in the right info.
They inexplicably moved Cash and I out of the drought designation. Underground water levels are 25-50% under average summer levels and we are both about 8-9" under normal for the May -Aug period but we have been given the all clear.
It's an interesting possibility to keep an eye on. I think the GFS, Nam, Icon and CMC all show varying temps of around 70 or below at 18Z. Have to watch for the possibility of a sneaky high being at 12:01AM Sunday Am. The King shows low to mid 70's for 18Z as it drives the heaviest rain shield a bit south of the others (actually appears to retrograde the slp/bounce it off another slp in the Atlantic) so everyone on board with it not making 80.
My thought was based on the other models being closer to 70 and just, like you mentioned, the time of the year. Cannot get low 60's temps with winds blowing in off the ocean as the water is too warm so its not an easterly thing.