Bubbler86

There is one poster in this forum who I think would have verified higher than anyone else I know had someone been scoring correctness in stands taken on posts. He had a stellar albeit it short season since he never seemed to see much hope and did not post all that much.

This is an interesting topic. If this were an NWS sponsored discussion forum the fantasy snowstorm maps would certainly not have a place. But sometimes it actually seems like finding the one model still on board for a snow storm, 6 days out, lifts the boards spirits and may do some actual good as it pertains to attitudes. But yea for someone who wants to discuss the ins and outs of actual weather the fantasy maps can take away from serious discussion. I look at the MA LR thread as a sort of barometer. There is LOTS of technical, official sounding discussion over there but some of the folks that do that are among the worst forecasters on the board because they are looking for nuggets and take stands on risky, yet popular, theories that very often fail to materialize. A real forecaster cannot do that. The general public could care less if you were the one to call the 93 Blizzard two weeks out. They want to know what the weather will be today.

After comparing apparent weather with forecasted weather, over the last 5 days in the LSV, I think the bar is set pretty low for who can or cannot make it in forecasting.

You must not be signed up for my weekly grass update email. PM me your address and I will get you on the list. We had a little grass survive under trees but about 2/3 of our yard died and is now weeds or brown dead grass. We are going to be putting about a grand in overseeding this fall.

Or if you like tunnel action. I sometimes get on just to traverse the tunnels.

Its very wrong some times. It just changed my forecast from almost 2" to less than 1/2" for tonight.

Up to about 2/10" for the day. Grass watering.

I went the extreme direction. Nam or bust. I will never figure out the Nam hate when we post the GFS like it is right.

I will respectfully disagree. LOL. I could out perform most forecasters with just the Nam and nothing else (short term). The other models are just interference sometimes. This past winter was the worst winter ever for snowfall at MDT so not a good winter for verification.

The Nam is the go to model for snow hunters. It seems less reliable with misses. Not sure where to find verification for models concentrated on 72 hours or less.

Only a 1-2" drop from 12Z Nam.

Sucks

Nam would be flood watches for lsv.

If you get downpours Canderson is going to score the win with his 80=No Rain, 20=Downpours

Lsv gets nam'ed at 0z

Wow, we only got to 83. I did see MDT got 88.

I was guessing as such but did not want to laugh at our total of 7" (that is more than I had in May, June, July and August combined). Northern Franklin county is skewing my area. Thanks for the reply!

SO what is the meaning of areal precip? I know most of the LSV is below normal for the last 60 days so it cannot mean actual precip. Here if you take Mid June to Mid August we are about 4" below "average"

No doubt. The safest best right now would be to say basically no rain for anyone. Fingers crossed its not that bad though.

Not a lot of people but some in S Central and moving over toward S/E in Adams but the trend was definitely less than 6 Z.

Nam might still show that but it definitively lessened the totals from 6Z to 12Z. Edit-It actually lowered the totals in Western PA but still going to lay down 1" plus in some areas S Central and South East PA.

That is the trend. If the 12Z Nam holds then there is still some question. FWIW 12Z Nam still rains in the LSV today.

If you read their AFD they are torn between the Euro and Icon vs. everything else. Most models bring a weak low right under us and lay down the goods on Sunday for the southern half of PA. See Nam below. Unfortunately pretty much nothing helps northern PA now.

This winter people might have to pour water into the Susky up north if MDT folks want their normal ice jams. Lots of dark red's on this map. I believe that is bad as it can get. My way and West/North from there. Lots of un-ranked as well so I bet there are a lot more reds in reality.

That is pretty crazy. I would have been fearful leaving a home with ho roof.