Bubbler86

When you say climate station you will have to trust my own measurements which are not scientific but are close enough talk about large scale deficits. The average rain for MDT for May, June and July is somewhere in the area of 12". Until Late July my house had received about 2.25" from early May to that late July point putting us about 10" behind normal for MDT. We rose to about 5" with the recent rains in late July and early August but now have gone over two weeks with less than 3/4" total so if you say one should have 15-16" for May-end of August we have had about 5.75" in that time frame putting us back up to about a double digit deficit again if it does not rain much in the next week to 10 days. . We only had about 1.25" from the Hurricane here. HGR is much closer to me than MDT but I have been using MDT to keep with the theme of this forum but I am actually about 60 miles west of MDT. @Cashtown_Coop can give much more exact measurements and he had about 2.25" in a day once recently so he is not going to be double digit but I suspect he is 6-8" behind normal from early May to late August.

I saw that yet I have never been involved in a double digit deficit over a 3 month period like we were in July and going back into it now with almost no rain in two weeks. it was not even that bad in Florida during the wildfires that closed I95 back in the mid 2000's. I guess the precursor wet spring limited the drought rating of this drought but definitely the driest 3 month period I can recall. Part of the deal is that the dry months were also supposed to be the 3 wettest months of the year I believe. Correction-May and June are the two wettest months on Average at MDT. July is not number 3, September is.

The old "dry heat actually makes it feel cooler theory". 130 actually feels like 89 with the sweet dry air.

True but why have a party with many thousands and risk starting it back up again.

They are holding massive pool parties in Wuhan now. Emergency over? Do they know something we do not?

Interesting. I like how you can put a zip code in and it focuses the bottom graph on your area since 2000.

I am hoping Blizz has me down for that on his Christmas list.

Ha, that is a damn witty reply.

It was a fully green yard in April albeit a mix of grasses which explains the occasional green spot though some of that green is crab weeds that have taken advantage of their new found space.

I j Just took the Drought 2020 version of a Jebwalk. Here is the front yard post the rain the past week or two. Dead on dead. Hopefully no one drops a match on it.

Yea, It was not good this past winter. MDT would have had an above average snow year if it was rollin' EC style.

Oh Brother the EC is hot next week now. Can the King be wrong for once?

Not too shabby,

That line is marching pretty steadily toward your general area.

The temp did drop from 81 to 72 here when the mighty beast blew in and out over a matter of minutes. Impressive drop.

We just picked up a nice dirt watering. I might not be in the 1 percent but I made the 20 percent.

If more than 20% of us call the NWS to complain they will see the error in their forecast.

Good call.

Might need some more tropical systems to do that. Doubt we make it by the end of Met Summer in 13 days but could make it by the end of Calendar Summer.

It would only make sense if we end up in the 90's.

Just taking the Euro's output into consideration, sprawling group of high pressures keeps most of the US dry for the next 10 days though there is a hurricane encroaching on the panhandle of Florida at the end. 500 mb chart shows our air coming out of Central Canada at the end of the run. Not cold but not hot :-)

In response to a post about posting snow maps it made me think of the MA LR thread and I made a comment that some forecasters in the MA LR thread are the worst at forecasting because I think its an "unforecastable" subject. PSUHoffman stopped in, to defend the MA thread I guess, and I defended my opinion. None of my comments were directed at a specific person.

I will only accept that if someone builds the Griffon (Busch Gardens) up here so I do not have to actually drive to S/E VA.

I do not want to drag this on too much as I am not misinterpreting my own opinion but we can agree to disagree how we see it. I said that the forecasters in that thread are the worst under the premise that no one can forecast long range accurately. The moment a discussion goes from technical discussion of something to "It's going to be rockin'" that becomes a forecast of sort and the point of my message you replied to was people who take stands and positions, vs. discussion, on long range forecasting will have the worst verification and that I use that as a barometer for what is actually good or bad. People who forecast for the public usually cannot do that and get away with it.

@psuhoffman I think my point is similar to yours and I used your forum as an example because some people consider it the holy grail of forums. But the majority of what happens there is indeed discussion, comparison and learning while actual forecasting, when done in that environment, tends to lend itself to sensationalism and catering to the crowd. My post was certainly not aimed at any particular person it was more aimed at the general thought of using the content from the MA LR forum to actually try and make a forecast will, in my opinion, end up lessening the final skill scores of the forecast. You brought up analyzing meso level stuff which is indeed more along the lines of forecasting especially when one is concentrating on past knowledge of local terrain to take model output and turn it into a viable forecast for any given area. Some of this discussion here came from previous posts talking about model verification and any particular model truly is making a forecast based on numerical data and the way it was "programmed". So I stand by my comment that forecasts, whomever may do them, originating from the MA LR forum are some of the worst. FWIW, somewhat like you I made a post in early December where I stated (used the word punt) that the first 1/3 of winter was toast and some of the locals here did not like it. I did not go into mid to late winter as if I did it would have just been a guess but to me that does cross over into a forecast when one goes from talking about what a model is showing to saying "This is how I think it will be"