jburns

16 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

what is alarming is Florence hasn't even moved into the most favorable conditions yet

If we are lucky she will go through an ERC while passing over the warmest water.

2 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

It's effective tomorrow at noon.

Yeah.  I had tomorrow at first. When I went to double check the info I pulled up0 an old link. Sorry about that.

COLUMBIA — Gov. Henry McMaster will order evacuations along South Carolina’s entire 187-mile coastline border starting at noon Tuesday, saying residents and tourists must get out of Hurricane Florence’s potentially devastating path, according to several lawmakers briefed on the plans.

The evacuations are expected to cover some areas inland prone to flooding, including Berkeley County and parts of Dorchester County. 

The eastbound lanes of Interstate 26 heading into Charleston and U.S. 501 into Myrtle Beach will be reversed when the order takes effect, opening all lanes to evacuees.  

12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

One thing to keep in mind, is there are practically no examples of major atlantic canes bending back to the west into SC/NC (i hear some posters referring to Hugo and some outlier model runs showing that type of track). Hugo may be the only one I can think of, and that was due to a decently strong upper low to it's WSW. This one doesn't have that feature currently.

The main driver of this one is pretty singular (Western Atlantic Ridge). Florence is going pretty much track on the SW side of it, so a curve WNW and then NW seems most likely. Once it get's far enough inland it will decouple and weaken into a weak SLP. That is when it will stall b/c the steering currents aren't strong enough to keep it moving after it's transition. I think that's the main reason the NHC mentioned the further south options were the result of a weaker cane. The stall is the big question in my mind and you have to give the Euro precedent b/c it's been the most consistent per usual.  So I would say it's going to be in Central NC/Southern VA. 

 

3

A stall could end up doing the most damage of the entire event.

9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

yeah that was kinda odd at first glance with the difference in strength....but then look at the timing change and how slow it moves right at landfall.....also keep in mind there is gonna be a strong 1030 mb ridge off NE and a  950-970 mb tropical low in SE NC that should mean the N and E sides quite far from the center are gonna have winds a lot stronger than you would typically in a rotting system...and that will persist for hrs and hrs if the storm stalls.....

The winds will also spread out. 

4 minutes ago, Wow said:

This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path.  This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast.  But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind.

I agree with this.  I would only change your last phrase to, more of a flooding issue in addition to the winds.

12 minutes ago, Wow said:

Wilmington to Winston-Salem...  

The image of the Euro at 120 has what would be whatever is left of the eye directly over my house. I know it will change but it still got my attention.

11 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I'm pretty sure I don't want any piece of equipment that involves a rectal extraction.  I'll just endure being without power, if that's the alternative. 

Well, it beats a rectal insertion factor but not by much.

50 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

How significant is the process of hooking things up to a generator? If you're ordering one off Amazon, is it a portable one?

And how much gas do you need to have on hand to last at least a week running a refrigerator, some lights, maybe a fan, and since they don't use much power these days, a TV?

I'm assuming I'm out of luck if I want to hook up a generator I got from Amazon to power a heat pump and air handler.

 

Edit: Sorry if this is too off-topic for this thread.

 

Just to clarify. It would be off-topic in a storm thread normally. However, we are a long way from an ongoing event and the information is useful for preparation so it is fine.   Just don't ask about your generator as the eyewall is slamming into Charleston.   

5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I would not mind taking the hit for everyone on this board (have never been in a hurricane)

Think of the worst thunderstorm you have ever been in. Double the wind speed get ready for hours of it instead of minutes.

2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

So Burns you gonna be in MHX for this one  Icon and GFS have gust to 120ish there.....if they are right I wont have to chase......

Not sure yet. I'll keep watching.

2 minutes ago, Regan said:

It’s for the farmers it says. 

That was a separate executive order from the state of emergency.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/gov-cooper-issues-emergency-orders-advance-storm-help-farmers

Good Lord.  Governor Cooper has just issued a state of emergency. It is getting to the point where no one even pays attention because they issue a state of emergency every time a mosquito farts. A full week early is a bit much.

2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

[
Maybe a good soaker too! Wow!!!

IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180907/74b95859cd85a4badc1ffa9e610d569d.jpg[/img]


.

We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous

4 hours ago, southernskimmer said:

Yes, every time I go to a new thread I get these as well. Obnoxious

Admin is aware of the problem and it is being worked on. It's more complicated than it seems.

23 hours ago, burrel2 said:

17 hours ago, GunBlade said:

Yea I’m 32 as well.  

 

My streak of never having a 6 inch snowfall at my house is still in tact.... and i'm 32 years old.

4

Damn Kids.

54 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

 I've only witnessed one snow over 4 inches, and that was 5.75 inches in January 2011;

 

5.75".  Well damn. I've brushed more than that off my snowboard so I could begin measuring the main part of a storm.

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

The whole “too cold to snow” mantra is like those old people who see “heat lightning” in the summer and don’t have any idea that it’s being caused by a thunderstorm.

And young people who say the same thing.

31 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

Can't make it up.  Hysterically this run drops more snow in Guilford County than Wake county.  Only in America ...

Nothing will reach the ground in Guilford.  A few thousand feet above our head the dewpoint is -50.

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

My 9" call from last night might turn out to be a tad lofty.

I just sat here and quietly laughed. 

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

If I haven’t learned anything in 17 years on this board, the people who whine the most will get the best snows.

Almost.

People who wine most think they get the best snows.

56 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Who is this other board, and why are we apparently the enemies?

Don't know, don't care.

2 hours ago, calculus1 said:

You sure seem very concerned with whatever is happening on the "other" board, even though you claim to be happy that you are no longer affiliated with it.  Just jump on board here and ignore whatever happened over there.

Good advice.

16 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

“Too cold to snow” huh?...

 

go tell that to Antarctica, Russia, Canada, Serbia, and any tall mountain range like the Rockies, Alps, and Himalayas.

1

Just for fun let me tell you the average snowfall for Antartica is less than Greensboro, NC.

1 hour ago, NCWX said:

Thank you for posting this.  My son (14) has in the last year really has got into weather and wants to be a meteorologist very badly.  He will spent hours looking up past weather events and studying storm tracks and why they did what they did.  What would be his best coarse for getting a jump on things, and what class's should he in high school (Next year) be his main focus?  He is a very smart kid.  Luckily he loves research, history, and math.  Thanks for any advice.   

math, math, math, math, math.

3 hours ago, packfan98 said:

Being 5 miles south of I-85 really sucks! The next time I move, I'm going just north of I-40!

You guys are too young to remember the good old days before the interstates were finished. Storms were free to move around the SE as they wished resulting in more frequent and more evenly distributed snowfall. No sudden turns to follow the twin concrete ribbons to mess up a forecast back then. You could live wherever you wanted to and have a decent chance at snow. A simpler slower moving time where storms resulted in a couple of days off work to play in the snow instead of a state of emergency.*

*This message sponsored by the Ghost of Snowstorms Past.