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nycsnow

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  1. nycsnow
    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A highly anomalous system will impact the area the next 24 hours as a vigorous upper low over the Mid Mississippi Valley begins to take on negative tilt as it approaches the Mid Atlantic states on Friday. The will drive a strengthening low- level jet up along the eastern seaboard and into the area tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. At the nose of the jet (80 kt), moderate to heavy rainfall will work in across NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and the NYC metro between 9 pm and midnight, before working across Long Island and CT during the early morning hours. A second round associated with the pre- frontal trough will then follow during the early morning hours, exiting eastern LI/SE CT toward daybreak or shortly thereafter. Moderate showers will then linger into the afternoon in response to the approaching upper low. It may take until late afternoon to exit the area. Also, can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm with some elevated instability. PW values approach 1.5 inches overnight, which per SPC climatology would be a record for the date (Dec. 25). Rainfall across the region will average close to 2 inches with some of the higher elevations north and west across the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior CT receiving 3 plus inches. This combined with a melting snowpack of up to half a foot will likely produce flooding across the region. A flood watch remains up for all but Long Island through Friday morning. The aforementioned low-level jet will translate to wind advisory level gusts (46-57 mph) across the interior with high wind warning gusts at the coast (60 to 70 mph). There is always uncertainty to how much of the winds can be brought downward, especially with a shallow mixed layer. However, winds right off the deck will be on the order of 60 to 70 kt. Heavy rainfall will also aid in the downward transport of momentum. Strongest winds will be be during the early morning hours, diminishing across far eastern areas toward 8 am.
  2. nycsnow
    Sustained winds are getting stronger gust are pretty much same 30-35
  3. nycsnow
    Tornados down south. Pretty sure reed timmer is chasing there
  4. nycsnow
    18z nam now has 80mph gust touching costal areas
  5. nycsnow
    Lot of gust 30-35 within last hour along shores... lga with 37. Models have gust 40-50 coming through next couple Hours till the real show tonight
  6. nycsnow
    Winds def picking up
  7. nycsnow
    Starting to see a lot more winds of 30ish last hour
  8. nycsnow
    12z Gfs has max gust 70-80 southern areas of nyc Long Island and jersey shore
  9. nycsnow
    Some models are showing costal locations gusting 40-50 by 4/5pm what are your thoughts
  10. nycsnow
    54 degrees. Jfk already gusted to 31
  11. nycsnow
    How are the soundings comparing so far to the nam?
  12. nycsnow
    Guess time will tell thanks
  13. nycsnow
    Wonder if the warmer temps are gonna make a difference some places are already upper 50s
  14. nycsnow
    Are you able to tell what actually mixes down?
  15. nycsnow
    12z nam pretty much consistent winds 40-50 around 3pm peak gust 70s over night. Not sure what soundings look like
  16. nycsnow
    Latest HRR actually got a little stronger with the winds for nyc east
  17. nycsnow
    .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The main weather hazards with the strong cold front will be strong winds with gusts up to near 65 mph, possible flooding, both from heavy rain and coastal flooding. Winds will continue to increase in the low levels of the atmosphere Thursday night along with the rain. The rain will become more widespread and will become heavy. Vertical forcing is shown with Q Vector convergence in the 850 to 500 mb layer. PWATS with all the increasing southerly flow will rise near 1.5 to 1.6 inches by early Friday morning, which is above the maximum moving average climatology for OKX according to SPC sounding climatology. Model soundings show warm cloud depth 10-11 kft. Despite the lack on instability, still a lot of dynamic forcing and anomalous moisture so flooding will be a possibility including flash flooding. With the strong SE flow, that should enhance rainfall amounts for the higher terrain north and west of NYC with orographic lift. Those locations could end up being on the higher side of total rainfall amounts. See hydrology section for more details and for the coastal flooding see the tides/coastal flooding section for more details. For the winds, there will be a low level jet strengthening through the night, with around 90-95 kt winds in the 850 to 900mb layer as a max near 7-11Z for NYC and locations north and west, SW CT, Central Long Island in the 8-12Z time period and 9-13Z to the east using the 3km NAM Bufkit. The NAM shows a stronger inversion so only a fraction of this jet will be mixed down, but with the downward momentum from the heavy rain, winds at 1500 ft could easily mix down and those are in the 50-60 kt range. The models have a consensus of a main cold frontal squall line that moves into the forecast region and then strengthens as it moves across Long Island and Southern Connecticut. With GFS Bufkit shows this as well but overall timing with the whole cold front and highest winds and rain is a few hours earlier compared to the NAM.
  18. nycsnow
    Full sunshine here temp should rise quick. Very breezy
  19. nycsnow
    Most of the area is already in the 50s and south shore or nyc out east and jersey shore already gusting to around 30
  20. nycsnow
    That’s what I meant sorry didn’t specify they think 50-60knots mix down
  21. nycsnow
    Con Ed trucks all over already
  22. nycsnow
    All the models are basically the same as far as timing and gust potential I guess it’s just comes down to the inversion now, upton thinks with the rain we should be able to mix down 50-60kt
  23. nycsnow
    Upton thinks rain should help mix winds down
  24. nycsnow
    I was 1 haha
  25. nycsnow
    Plus all the melting snow in the city, and hours of 40-50 gust will beat up trees. I live 4 blocks from the water and 10 min from Atlantic in Brooklyn south we usually take a beating in winds by me. But to counter all this isias and a severe t storm event we had did take down a lot of dead wood.
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