Damage In Tolland

DTs FB page is ruthless.  Seriously people, it's just snow.

When you put it on the line and go balls to wall.. you open yourself up to 2 things:

It's king of the world when you nail it and you are the greatest..but if you bust you are ripped to shreds..which in all fairness is acceptable

That radar from SE Ct stretching due SE out into the ocean looks beautiful. That is exactly what we wanted to see

so are you saying it is "maybe" trending south more? last night they (cnn/fox) was saying NYC could see 2-3ft? and now weather channel says 8-12 with blizzard cond. possible for nyc

I'm not going to say anything about NYC because a few posters assured us their heavy snow looked great .

I just mean I think the Euro/Euro ens idea of a widespread regional crushing with a massive jack in Se MA..might actually be the way to think here.

We'll agree to disagree on the Euro.  Doesn't matter for most and for some I think it's actually better in the sense that we should see the full bore moisture train right into SNE.  Can already see this is happening, some of these areas that were looking to get shorted by subsidence as bands setup further west...doubt that happens but who knows?   I bet somewhere between Ginxy and tolland is anoter max jack zone.... as this whole thing begins to pivot and firehose in.

I think you're along the right track ..I still think though that we are going to see a rather expansive area..perhaps much wider than you'd expect of some big 20-24+ totals that could encompass much of SNE .. Instead of one of those 30 mile wide bands..But we'll see how it all plays out

One thing that seems like a lock, is that this is a south shore jackpot. I could imagine totals in the lower 30s, Euro has got to be too juiced.

40-50 inch amounts in a few places there seems likely

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043

I think Will said earlier that in Nemo the RPM had the same thing the day of the event and had Ct almost no snow..only to have the megaband end up there.

NYC reporting over 5".

How much north and south of it?

oh mann,  Bliz can't you stay up just one nite!

I laid awake from 1-3 last night thinking about the storm..then got up at 4:10 and was out running by 4:45..I am tired. Gonna try and hit the sack around 8:00 and maybe get up 2:00

Look at that def. band coming onto the Cape stretching to the SW of LI>.that's the beast right there for central areas

I think we a much bigger deform band...like just a big blob of it for everyone, with minimal subsidence. 

Yeah I agree.. I've been on that train all afternoon. I don't think this is one of those 30 mile wide bands..There may just be 100's of miles of 24+

Also as Ryan noted the ENS mean was  somewhat east of the op

The Euro kind of just has one massive megaband..outside of Se MA. That's why those big 24+ totals are spread all over Ct and MA

The band on LI into NYC is OES/convergence zone..It really wasn't part of the storm

I think the RGEM is too far east also...but I think the Euro might be too far west by a little...I am still envisioning some sort of compromise.

Compromise is perfect for all of SNE

Man, the RGEM might have actually ticked east again...hard to see, but it definitely didn't go west from 12z.

Poor Nammy

Euro is def a bit east of the 18z nam. I think the nam is probably too far west. It is quite a bit further west than even the rap only 12 hours out.

It doesn't make a huge difference for most of us in here but the western fringes it might.

18z RGEM time shortly

what does his map show?

18-30

Exactly. No one knows. Is the NAM a possibility with the heavy snow from the Berks/NYC - absolutely. Could be be 50 miles too far west - absolutely.

 

Not sure why you're melting down over it. Of course it's possible.

Well it was nice to see you raise totals statewide after it came out. That actually reassured me!

You seem worried

Jay you've made your point clear..you think this area of Ct is going to get dry slotted while areas east and west don't. You're entitled to your thoughts. If the NAM had any support ok..but when the serf's jumped east..that should probably tell us something. But again..we don't know..and probably ..it's time to put down the models anyway and just watch what unfolds

I think it's certainly a possibility. Not everyone will jackpot with 2 feet of snow. There will be an ugly zone of subsidence east of the super-band. 

What if the Nam had shifted east? Would you still think it's possible?

That's my point. It's always been possible for all areas except SE Mass

noone has a clue where it will set up.   

DIT jumping off the Q bridge after seeing the NAM? He still gets 15", but holy subsidence there.

It looks like the I91 corridor or just east is the favorite right now to get that local min, but you never know where the bands form... 

I'm not worried one bit by that garbage.LOL..every other piece of useable guidance shifted east and it goes even farther west. There's going to be some disappointed folks to the west of SNE if they are hanging hats on NAM

Well the NAM looks like the EURO as far as banding goes.

When the srefs are east and the Nam is now truly by itself.. Well that sums it up

how's it look for west of the CT River?

Snowy