bearman

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

MRX puts an sps out for my area for 1/2 to 1 inch of snow but a WWA for NE TN for 1/2 to 1 inch of snow. Sometimes their decision making process fascinates me. 

There just never seems to be any consistency.

Anybody in the Knoxville area.  We are coming in from FL on a flight this afternoon and was wondering how much Knoxville Got.  Any Reports there?

9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Yikes!!!

9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Don't look at the 9pm plumes for Knoxville. Mean cut in half to .2 qpf

Don't know why anyone would expect anything different it almost always happens. it seems.  Lucy always pulls to ball out of the way before its kicked.

This is always a good look when MRX refuses to include the southern Valley but north Ga is included so everyone is colored in on the map with a hole for the southern valley.  It looks very strange on a map.

MRX keeps knocking back the totals they see for the valley. Did have knoxville at 6 to 8 inches. now just 2 to 3.  With the dryness that we have had this does not seem to be much of a deal.

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Here in West Knoxville my temp has dropped fast. Even under cloud cover I went from 51 to 42 in the last 3 hours. Don't know if it will be enough but I am surprised. I am sure north of us and with a little elevation things should stick with any rates.

Just had 30 dBZ returns pass over the house and nothing falling. I am just a 1020 feet.  Got some dry air.

This is the craziest thing I have ever seen,  There is a snow hurricane in Pensacola Beach.  There is also even heavier returns out in the gulf about to come ashore.  https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/. If you look close you can see the resort pools are starting to freeze over.

Here is one more link.  Bourbon St New Orleans.  Incredible!     https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=bourbonstreet#google_vignette 

https://www.brproud.com/news/local-news/east-baton-rouge-parish/skycam-tracks-snowfall-in-east-baton-rouge-parish/

here is a live link Almost zero visibility. Click on and wait a few seconds will come up at top of page.

This is just Historic Blizzard warnings on the gulf coast.

Our ground has turned white here in West Knoxville and the roads are getting a white glaze on them.  If Temps drop fast and this continues much longer there will be problems. Snowing harder now than I have seen it all day.

Just went through Sevierville and they have around 2 inches on the ground in the downtown area. Roads are starting to get icy and snow covered. Coming down good at the moment.

We have switched to all snow in West Knoxville Temp is now down to 33 at my house and we have a light dusting.  It is coming down at a good clip.

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's pretty much ripping here now. Quarters and nickels. 

Send some of that down in the valley.  Sometimes that happens when we get these Arctic fronts. Oh Never mind. It is here in the form of a hard sleet shower.  If we can keep the moisture we are now in business.

 Notice the almost due East-West line that cuts off Knox county right at the county line.  No disruption of daily life for any Knoxvillain.

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

MRX just put this out. 

 

Always have to have the cutout for less snow totals for Knox county.  Don't want to have to many people getting excited. Brings to much attention.  I will be happy if we get an inch. Happier if it over performs.  I have now had more than an inch of snow in my front yard for an entire week.  That is very rare.

4 hours ago, matt9697 said:

The models are crazy! I mean, all of the stuff I have ever read about historical cold, for example, the 1899 outbreak when it snowed in New Orleans, we were really cold here in the TN Valley. From what I have seen, we are now where near that kind of cold, how is everything being depicted so far south? 

Yeh,  I don't buy it.  I think there is going to be some very disappointed people in the deep south.  I would like them to score but many times these setups say snow and that far south they end up with ice.  Like you say our temps don't add up to what is being forecast.  We will see.

MRX not sounding very excited about probability with Sunday Snow

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

"Past climate data shows that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3 years in the area."

Am i mistaken, or will we have we had Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 3 STRAIGHT years if next weeks cold comes to pass?

That is the way I remember it.  I think they are talking about averages.

The new afternoon MRX disco discounts snow chances as well.                                                                                                                                                                                    

For the early part of next week, the main weather impact will be
extreme cold temperatures, driven by an Arctic High originating in
northern Canada. Current model guidance indicates this high to
remain very strong (near 1045mb) and gradually become centered over
the area. Very deep troughing and 850mb temperatures nearing -20
Celsius will near record low values for this time of year.
Confidence is fairly high for most places to see highs in the 20s
Monday and Tuesday, possibly even in the teens. The strength of
subsidence and CAA also make the case for many places to drop into
the single digits, despite a lack of predicted snow cover. At this
range, it is unclear how much wind may result, but wind chills could
easily reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Past climate data shows
that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3
years in the area. The other question will be if any system develop
and track close to our area next week. Based on current model data
and the strength of the Arctic High, potential is fairly limited,
but this is still a possibility.

14 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

I still have Tennessee Weather Spot on my favorites on an older computer. The site doesn't work anymore, but I actually pulled it up last week out of curiosity. The site is now down and  It wouldn't let me log in. If I remember  correctly, didn't he die young from heart disease? Man, I used to love reading the arguments between Toot and other posters. 

 

Nothing like remembering old friends and good times.

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later.  lol

How many times has similar things happened.  Just saying.  This could be the exception.

3 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....

I remember listening to the Weekend Met for News Channel 9 out of Chattanooga on the Sunday evening, almost a full week out from the storm of 93 that would start the next Friday evening. He was honking the first warnings about the potential of a multi inch system.  I remember thinking how odd it was that he was speaking so confidently about a system so far out and talking about it being several inches.  It was also strange to me because it had been so warm and late in the season.  I had just come out of the Garden tending my Broccoli that was the size of dinner plates.

18 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

This might belong in a banter thread but I didn't see one except for summer banter unless I am overlooking it. Just read that NWS Morristown's chief meteorologist who's worked for Morristown for over 20 years is retiring. I'm wondering with that sort of experience with our complicated region departing how forecasts may be affected. I imagine some of the backtracking we've seen over the years where overnight would get aggressive then day time back peddle if that was the chief sort of moderating things based on his region knowledge and climatology. Thought it was interesting to share.


 

I have thought the exact same thing at times about the "Young night shift".  Could be.