MJOatleast7

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

If NOWdata was available I could tell you, but average highs in town per MVL are still in the low 50s.  

Honestly the highs have been pretty much spot on normal if not even below normal. The mins have been warm.  

October at MVL will be around +1 up here... nothing to be worried about.

especially when we snow as DEN chinooks at 70F on Feb 1st.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And just so everyone knows....the cold is building and making a run out west first. You will hear Denver in the news as soon as this weekend. That is a bitter blast coming for them. The next two weeks to me, seem like a classic almost nina look with colds building in Canada, especially central and western Canada. It's a good place for it to happen. 

Hopefully (probably) resulting in lots of snow in the Sangre de Cristos...Some kind of correlation I read between early good S Colorado snows and good snow here. Looks encouraging in that variable.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha ...tru dhat!

Yeah, as a winter enthusiast, one might be simultaneously share in frustration and amazement should such ordeals verify as repeating phenomenon.  

In 1995 ... there was a two to three week intermission before Act II commenced and added 1/3 - to date- over top to really bring the seasonal averages to historic levels.  That intermission was brutal - despite all virtues of fairness.  It almost made it worse that the fist 45 days of winter were so prolific perhaps.  We had some 36 to 40" of multi-storm snow pack.  I remember it having textural layers.. never had seen that impression before.  Usually, there's mangled pattern correction melting in between successive events enough that previous snow fall all tend to blend into a sub-straight with the only the more recent snowfall identifiable on top?  - if one can imagine what I'm saying... But by mid January 1996 that incredible season, the snow pack out 30 mi W of Boston as the crow flies ..there were like 6 or 7 layers from different snow types ...almost like looking at an avalanche survey/assessment team's cut-out profile. 

Then ... the cutters kicked in.. The pattern retrograde and/or progressed, either way, but it was pretty much diametrically opposite storm track, going form zero mid-continental cyclones to zero chance of coastals and 100% chance of MS-Lakes transits. It was that cut and dry... well, "wet" is more like it.  We ended up with a couple of Lakes bombs that swatched 50 F DP to Caribou Maine... Man, I really...I was I think a Junior in college then...I remember thinking as we were entering that period of late Jan into Feb ( which was well modeled - in fact, ...that was interesting about that year.  It was extraordinarily well-modeled with individual scoring exception regardless of either a particular model's preexisting skill, or just the primordial nature of the technology compared to today; a time in which - ironically - we can't seem to sacrifice enough virgins to find... ), how with a starting of nearly 40" on the level, we'd survive it as snow-pack enthusiast.

Nope. 

All flat open fields and knolls ...basically, where there were no man-attributed snow banks, were frozen Earth with water running off when the last cutter skirted through Minnesota .. DPs were nearing 60... 60!  With southerly winds gusting to 50 mph whirring white noise through the barren tree canopy. One more cutter like that and we'd a-been pushing up crokus shoots. As it were... the cold that came flooding across the country on the backside of that big system ...as well, the system its self probably contributing in the governing change, both heralded a refresh that was impressive.  And it snowed a foot in ~ mid February... We never did attain the 36 to 40," ...but we did on a couple of occasions flirt with 18" before settling... 

 

 

It's one of the reasons we're not well acquainted with depth hoar...that kind of deep snowpack is never around long enough.

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

After a smoking hot +3.2 July up here, The last 2 mos have been dead nuts normal and so is the first 18 days of Oct.

Solidly AN here...Gradient winter setting up?

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My aunt is better than CPC at this. Ralphs weather posted the first map and a look back at last Oct CPC outlook 

To be fair, they did OK on 2012-13 and 2013-14 even though they hosed 2009-12. NAtl blocking and the one-eyed pig...the two variables hardest to predict.

That's quite the pasting for E ND on the GFS...Of course it is the GFS.

51 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

OT but anyone see the Typhoon in the WPAC? Looks like Patricia/Wilma intensity. Definitely fits the bill for one of the most intense TC observed. 

 

Sucker looks like it'll recurve and bomb out again in the Bering Sea...just like 2014...hmmm...

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dunno though the upper air pattern is looking troughy in the AK region as we roll through the month. Can the SST’s override it?

More Bering Sea than AK/NWT proper though...still tending toward higher heights in E AK/Yukon relative to Bering Sea. Let's keep it from getting any farther E though.

41 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

72F in Northampton,  at least on the car thermo.

102 this aftn in Jasper, AL

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

now would not be a good time for Yellowstone to unlid its self with all this Global-duress going on ... to mention, the climate storm - that's not going away in the fairest of times.  

 

well, in that case you'd have Woody Harrelson joyfully crowing the end of the world as he's obliterated.

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, development is more likely than not

maybe an Emily (1993) type scenario, which slowly kisses HAT and then a slow escape ENE

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Hermine? The one that sat south of LI and spun itself out? Or maybe the J storm in 2017, whatever its name was...

Jose in 2017

Out of curiosity, why does the deformation band often set up in central/potentially western as opposed to eastern mass? Been pretty surprised by the relative model consistency on this.

Elevation may be a factor. Don't know how much of one because not familiar enough with deformation band dynamics to know how much the surface plays into it, but have seen the same thing with snow squalls dying as they get into the Boston basin