MJOatleast7

All that chaos and then a subtropical system in the central Atlantic. Gotta wonder ifTHAT can be a player too, torquing the flow into a 50/50 low or something like that. Right now it's too far east and only temporary.

Looks like crazy velocity though - whatever forms should be quick hitting

East money. Obviously the last minute explosion was wild but the environment was primed for a big dog. You could see it from a mile away.
Still thinking October produces a couple good storms too if we can get some seeds in the Caribbean. 

Winchester MA about 7:10


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Check out the outflow boundary (4:07 pm) on a sagging ORH-OWD line.

9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah can't say I've been to that part of the bay, only like scusset and north Dennis, but I believe it. A taste of Florida your favorite place!!

Breakwater Beach n Brewster,man...over a mile of exposed sand at low tide, completely covered over at high tide. That's a lot of sun-baked real estate to warm the incoming water. It's a wonder we don't get tidal bores there like in Nova Scotia.

hope we get some water...
these last three convection windows have left much to be desired, regionally. And tomorrow, looking over guidance', it appears we'll still make the mid 80s but with a return of that desiccating air mass type.  DPs of 50 with d-slope additional katabatic drying, waving through fields and trees in operation water sucking life right out of the background environment...
dry begets dry.  I've always hated that statement, ... quite likely because it appears to be so true and it's my own petty hang-up. empirically, though, the data is what it is.  Maybe just perception, I dunno.  A dry period is dry so long as it stays dry or event roll out that way off the dice.  And just like the crappes table, you can have successive lucky roles.  Or maybe there are real physics at play.  Maybe it's both - probably. 
Call it whatever we will, trend also is a valid prognostic philosophy.   So we should go ahead and assume the drier side until such time as the erstwhile mode has quite obviously changed. When?  Oh ...probably when the first synoptic nor'easter in Sept or more likely nearing Halloween - which may snow again by the way ...
We'll be back to no drought condition by thanks giggedy.  

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

SST's are 80 along the latitude of Atlantic City. Of course, you'd need a tropical system to begin with and the perfect set up, but that doesn't scream weakening until late in the game. 

It also depends how deep the warm layer is...If it's 80F through 200' of depth that's a lot better for maintaining TC strength than if it's, say, only 40-50' deep. Although since systems are usually trucking along at MA/SNE latitudes I don't really know if upwelling would still able to affect the storm as it passed.

Amazing seabreeze front at York Beach, ME today…ran into it coming back from Nubble light at Sohier park(73F) to 83 at the end of Nubble Rd 0.8 mile later, then 95 at the south end of Long Sands Beach. All within less than 2.5 miles. Earlier the front had been about 2 miles back from the coast but then bumped eastward to the beach about 6 pm.


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Nice seabereeze at Nubble Light in York, ME. 78 this afternoon.


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Day 5 of aoa 90 at Logan.   Should hit 6 with a slim chance of 7.   Longest streak in a while I think.

kind of scary that we're getting these temps with such a blah upper level pattern. wait til we get a ridge like canada 2021 or what europe just had

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks may roll eyes ( for some reason..) but it is still quite analogous to the SW/W heat release phenomenon that takes place across the N/A mid latitudes. Only in the western Europe paradigm ...rotate the dial 90 degrees.

This is/was, as their "big heat" tends to materialize, a N. African heat release.  It was pulled through eastern Iberian Pen region/over the western Med Sea, and given to the anomalous split -flow jet configuration ( the N branch of which is buckled around a NW European ridge), it got pulled into that circulation manifold and ...well, bake human bread time.

So...will this veer NW to Greenland and flash-melt a billion tons of ice in one day, like in 2019?

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... looks like we're getting run to run consistency for the ending of civilization in the Plains as we know it ...

It's interesting when we think that all that has gone on since the industrial revolution is/was inexorably prologue to the invention of the models that thus predict the end of civilization ... for having created the models.  

That's an interesting story -

I mean, 35C at 850 has been in the higher country in the western parts of all those states but not at the lower elev's farther east. There we can better apply the 15-16C add-on to 850s rule for extrapolating to the surface and we get Khorramshahr oilfield heat

Can you imagine if a dday meteor was hidden in the awe inspiring oohs and ahh …
Then it’s like ooh ahh whoa oh ah um hey-uh
                  SHIIIIIT !

There was a really good one back in the early 2000’s.  Maybe in January?   Several per minute for a while on a clear night

The good effect is the lawn doesn’t grow as quickly 

Well, Harv just gave his last regular cast…He expressed such gratitude and appreciation for everyone.


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2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

or jorts.

So Jason Alexander.

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Congrats, My cousins are also getting married next Saturday.  150 people, outdoor wedding in the Poconos.  I guess I have been elected to be the official  weather guy  in the family.  Hot and humid for sure but the cold front and line of storms could screw things up late afternoon.  Lots of pressure on me, could come down to the wire and if I'm wrong I could be out casted from the family

Hopefully it won't be like Sunday, August 17, 1969 at a certain music festival...

8 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

OES here and around Boston. Comes down really good between big fat flakes and smaller ones. Really cool to see

Not that it'll accumulate on anything not already covered. Sun angle FTW

And to think my wife used to babysit his kids. He still lives in the same house, BTW.
Harvey is the best.

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, the NAM has a W-N bias at time ranges beyond 48 hours.   It's funny - it's almost like it's gotta bias NW so bad that it re-engineers the circulation mode to get to it's obsession LOL

 

Hmm...HC expansion built-in?

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tickle south, euro narcan:

 

ORH jack?

28 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Pretty decent improvement from the 6z

 

Ray jack? Dare we hope?