MJOatleast7

42 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

yeah that worked out great in Oct 2011 

I had read something, years ago, that suggested that...anthropomorphizing as it may be, the atmosphere has to "learn" how to storm after long periods with no synoptic storms (e.g. summer). That once it had done it one time, something in the atmosphere had "learned" something and was primed to do it more easily the next time. Tip, any thoughts?

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still am enamored some by the gesture of a coastal storm at all, really.    - I mean ones of such formulaic structures in autumns - per my own experience - seemed to have "meant" well for events deeper into the year.

Still ( and admittedly ..), it is hard to get a bead on whether this is that kind of foretell, or if it is just a part of the seasonal fore -lapse, -NAO's we've been seeing more of in recent autumns. 

So...we do it again a week from Sunday?

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It can be, but not necessarily.....regardless, its nice to see the warm/dry pattern relenting to something more seasonable as the cold season begins.

Let's at least hope for upwelling as this thing passes by...at the very least, removal of upper ocean heat content so maybe won't be as quick to turn to rain at the coast.

Happy First GFS Clown Storm of 2022-22


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If you look at the forecasts for the North Pacific, the next big Kamchatka low around 10/27 is forecast to move/obliterate the recent very persistent North Pacific high placement. That would translate using the Bering Sea Rule to a big pattern change for the US around 11/13-11/17. My analogs had a big pattern flip ~11/15 when I did my winter outlook. I'm inclined to believe the the 10/27 low off Kamchatka is real, as is the following change in the North Pacific. But it's obviously speculative until we get closer.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man what a stretch coming up. Hopefully Stein comes Monday like the euro Op has. 

Nice cold pool developing in GoA. Just like 2011

58 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

But what if it was!

Snowfall associated with a tropical system actually occurred in NE in 1804 (New England Snow Hurricane) and 1963 (Hurricane Ginny)

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

70+ dews can go into September. I am referring to the pattern of troughs coming in and not necessarily prolonged swamp conditions. After this week....well maybe more like early next week...it looks to change. It doesn't mean we can't get hot and humid. We probably will have those conditions come and go in September. 

September is what used to be called "rebound days" at my college in VT

That Central Park concert about to get wet.


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27 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

what's that structure? looks like an abandoned radar site in Chernobyl 

My condo building in Winchester, MA. Top floor, great view to NE

Meanwhile, gotta love this Bermuda Blue…

From 3:45 pm BOX AFD...

Temperatures will be only slightly
above normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s.
Should be good weather for most summer outdoor activities
(boating/swimming/boonie-stomps). 

????

Somebody go out and sample the rain later, see if there's any soot in it...

Off tobic, but...anybody catch that warm-core system near Bermuda end of next week? Way too early to talk TCs but still...

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This won't get read after this first sentence - I'm sure... but I've also noticed an interesting aspect about the synoptic behavior during springs into early summers over eastern N/A ...particularly along and above the mid latitudes. 

I've called it "continental folding pattern" - personal sort of euphemism for how the fast flow [ apparently ] of the mid and higher latitudes of the Pacific are still impinging on the super-circumstance of the western N/A high country - the cordillera of the Canadian - U.S. Rockies .. This longer termed persisting fast Pac flow is force up, and then by Coriolis convention/physics it is forced it to turn right producing DVM mass loading; which creates an enhanced tendency for higher heights ... Down stream is enhancing eastern Canadian trough

It seems to me more common in spring and autumn, ...and "I think" [ hypothesis incoming] ..that is the root cause in this seasonal lag effect people are catching onto. It's why it's snowing vastly more frequently in Octobers/Novembers than the previous 100 years of climo ( prior to ... 2000 etc..), as well, why we've have so many CAA events later into April and Mays...

These cold intrusions that are out of season are belied by the ongoing AN - baseline CC signal that's also in place at all times.  We don't see them in the yearly means...We just see a year that was .. decimals, or 1 or 2 above normal... But it has snowed in f'n May, like 9 of the last 19 springs ... and probably that often in October.. I remember in 1987, on October 10...there was a strong coastal storm that dumped an impressive early season blue bomb over the Capital District/western CT ... and I could smell the snow in the air even though it only rained here in eastern Mass.. I thought that was an incredible to 'smell snow' so early in the year...  Now?  ..it's like, Halloween so where's winter.

Anyway, ..even extending this later into late May into the mid summer period...I am noticing tendencies for a 700 to 500 mb level easterly flow to set up N of Bermuda that tends to come into the M/A ...more and more. This has muted big heat from getting up here... despite some big time toppy ridge looks at times.  The big ridge around the 4th of July ..I think that was 2017, ..the one where the GFS finally had to give up on its N/stream bias ...but in doing so, went completely nuts and put up 111 F high temperatures for HFD-BED like this was sage land between the jungle and desert over NE Sierra Leone of west Africa ... no problem...  of course we only managed 94 to 97 .. Big heat,  but believe it or not... left it on the field.

That set up hybridized that usually polarward position of the Bermuda deep layer typology such that that easterly "trade" jet came into the M/A .. and muted thicknesses under those towering 600 dm ridge heights.  You could have packed 585 thicknesses in there with east, and made a buck-04 out of that but it was like synoptic-scaled taint.  No one would notice that ... It's just unknowable to anyone outside tortured realm of crushing Meteorological-nerdology ... haha. Who would at 96/75 anyway -

But in general... I've seen this in a lot of June and July's in recent years.. where you set up an anticyclonic mid level rotation tendency between NS and Bermuda, which places the real heat conveyor up into the NE Lakes and Ontario - last year's big heat over NNE in May... while DCA-PHL-NYC were un-memorably warm, is probably the better example of a kind of synoptic inverse effect of the Bermuda ridge ( CC related no doubt...) ...re-positioning in the means more N. 

So as the HC expands north (CC)do you think it’ll eventually put E NE in the trade wind belt in the summer? Says the weather geek looking for his first landfalling TC from the *east* like in the Caribbean...Probably still 50 years or so from that happening.

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Flakes in Methuen and I do not mean the people....

Jonathan flakes???

Beginning of March or more towards the middle? 

First flakes in Winchester MA...


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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Still fantasy lol 

At least the 12Z GFS got rid of the ugly 470s at 500 N of AK

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There has been no antecedent warm flashing events in the stratospheric over the poles - unless someone has some extra-double top secret data that hides reality -

If only...if only...Sukayu Onsen eat your heart out.

23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Aaaand... Todd Gross is back.

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

So is this how we chew up those too-warm SSTs and defy the NOAA seasonal?

Also on July 31, 1976, the upper reaches of Big Thompson Canyon, Colorado got 12” in about 4 hours from a thunderstorm that just went nowhere during that whole time. Resulted in a devastating flood downstream.


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On June 22, 1947, Holt, Missouri received 12 inches of rain in 42 minutes. This was cited in a peer-reviewed paper in the AMS Journal.

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