Jns2183

Here are two examples. The regional Canadian and more worrying the RRFS-A, which has never shown more than 3-4" since it got into range. This model is scheduled to replace the HRRR, NAM, RAP with the NEXT 3 MONTHS. The second to last image I threw in was the HRRR. You can clearly see the the sinking air screw zone. If the inverted trough is strong it's even worse as you essentially have two vacuum cleaners sucking up all moisture. I think the possibility for the worst of the possible screw zone might be a bit northeast, Schyukhill county scares the crap out me here. I can easily see a situation where people are livid in one town because they got 3" instead of 12-16" while a place between Harrisburg and state college under a wwa for 3-4" wakes up Monday morning to 12". There 100% will be a small but horrible area of sinking air in this setup. Good luck trying to predict it ahead of time. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Yup, looking at storm evolution I fully expect there to be a town that just gets stuck between the inverted trough and ccb and ends up with 3" on grass while 30 mins either direction they have 10". I'm guessing 4" in camp hill. I don't like our position. But I also have no faith in the models to accurately predict a 30-40 mile wide screw zone. So it's not going to obvious where it sets up until tomorrow evening. This really is a no win forecast for local Mets. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What should I be paying attention to on mesoanalysis website for hints of where the inverted trough might show up? I'm going all in hoping to get inverted trough vs ccb band. The slant wise convection in that ccb is insane on the models. Which means there is going to be an area somewhere in this viewing area whose going to be have flurries for hours on end while 40:miles either direction is getting smoked. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Can't see picture Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

These ranges and probabilities are hilarious and great. I'm definitely not invested in this one. I'm solely rooting for inverted trough action. Those can be super sneaky good. Wasn't it in 2016 that one hit around Pittsburgh giving them double the forecast amount from hours prior? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

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2/3 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Enjoy Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Was it the boxing day storm years ago that had everyone but the cape getting next to nothing for days only for it to shift 100 miles the final 20-30 hours obliterating Connecticut conviently after all there tv weatherman had declared it a miss even just a day before? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

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I want something that is the equivalent of launching an m80 into a giant African killer bee nest. It would be good for the profession. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

God do we need it. March, April, May average 11" and we need a good 21". The top ever for those 3 months was 20.79" in 2011. I'd kill for a good 60"+ year again. Praying we finally get a big tropical system up here for first time in a while. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm almost at a point with just how arrogant some local and national meteorologist have become combined with endless whining about models where Im praying for a once in a generation bust either way, just so it pushes out some of these people due to ridicule, installs some humility, and forces people to use model runs like a tool instead of like heroin. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Id follow my rule with this one of not taking any model and forecast seriously till 5pm Saturday Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This afternoon the nam barely had the low to the NC/GA border Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha we have less than an inch forecast. Im not really going to worry about forcast amounts till Saturday evening, which is the earliest I expect accurate forecasts for this seductive teaser storm. I'm much more enamoured and enjoying the variance show the weather models are putting on. It really started to get boring a couple years ago when it seemed like everything was locked in with storms before they even got in NAM range. This hobby is alot more enjoyable when the possibility of monumental busts within the final 48 hours have a bit of credibility. I'll take a couple times of having the rugged pulled out from under me the last second for just a chance to experience the magic of going to bed expecting an inch and waking up at dawn to 6", thunder and a white out and seeing the shell shocked local weather men like the one experience I had as a kid. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Forgot one Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I fell in love with this company city charts so I treated myself to a one month subscription. Enjoy the granular detail. Especially the ensemble ones. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's a hell of a lot tighter than Euro. Seeing that and trends last few hours makes me lend more credence to GFS. This whole storm is hilarious Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Euro ensembles Heatmap of relative low pressure density. First 12z, second 18z, 3rd is heatmap of change Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

"Volatility is the price of admission for superior returns." Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The closure of two weather stations and there ballons are not the reason the models have had so many issues, nor is it the reason NOAA is sending planes out to the Pacific. I will say what would do some wonders for our models are cheap, high altitude, many months lasting between landing, drones with weather equipment. I give it until 2030 until true sensor swarms start being used in exactly those places the planes are going and where people are sparse. He sounds wacky with that two station with weather balloon crap. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Winter jacket: Below 32^\circ F Light jacket: Between 32^\circ F and 50^\circ F Sweater: Between 50^\circ F and 65^\circ F Jeans & shirt: Between 65^\circ F and 80^\circ F Shorts and T-shirt: Above 80^\circ F Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I did get a statistically significant values for my 6-12 day band, which for one location isn't bad Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I implore everyone to listen to the audio. The explanation is amazing Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk