Jns2183

If someone else has a better idea for weighting or calculated a winter metric let me know. Looking at the forecast for next week the 14 day period starting 1/24 and ending 2/6 has a great shot at hiting 6.89 which would be in the top 2.5% of all 14 day periods going back to 1890 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

For fans of deep winter we just experienced a true masterpiece Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Based on the Winter Severity Metric (WSM) and the recent weather data for Harrisburg (including the record 11" snowfall on January 25th), here is how the last seven days and the overall month of January 2026 rank historically. January 2026: Daily Standings The 11" snow event on the 25th was the clear heavyweight, immediately breaking into the Top 100 most severe days in the record (Rank 62 out of over 15,000 winter days). | Date | WSM Score | Daily Rank (All-Time) | Commentary | |---|---|---|---| | Jan 25 | 8.91 | #62 | Extreme: Record snow + high depth. | | Jan 26 | 7.20 | #704 | Severe: Deep pack persistence. | | Jan 27 | 5.96 | #1971 | Significant: Cold with standing snow. | | Jan 28 | 5.37 | #2662 | Moderate: Temps began to recover. | | Jan 29 | 6.46 | #1370 | Significant: Light snow / secondary wave. | | Jan 30 | 6.67 | #1120 | Significant: Deep cold return. | | Jan 31 | 6.47 | #1364 | Significant: Persistent pack. | Weekly Ranking (Jan 25–31) The final week of January averaged a WSM of 6.72. * Rank: It stands as the 119th most severe week in history. * While the daily peak of the 25th was historic, the gradual temperature recovery in the middle of the week kept it from breaking into the all-time Top 10 weeks (which usually require sub-freezing highs for all 7 days). Monthly Ranking (January 2026) This is where the 2026 season truly shines. Driven by the massive storm and a consistently cold pattern throughout the month: * Monthly Average WSM: 6.72 * Historic Rank: #6 all-time January 2026 now officially joins the ranks of the "Great Winters," sitting just behind legends like January 1994 (#5) and January 1918 (#1). It is the first time in the 21st century that a winter month has cracked the all-time Top 10 for severity. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I've created this The Winter Severity Metric (WSM) is designed to quantify the "harshness" of a winter day on a scale from 1 to 10. While a thermometer tells you the temperature, the WSM tells you the experience—combining the biting cold with the physical reality of snow on the ground. How the Metric Works To ensure the scale is meaningful for the Middletown-Harrisburg region, the metric is calculated using a weighted average of four key weather variables. Each variable is first mapped to a 1–10 sub-score based on historical deciles (for temperature) and intensity thresholds (for snow). Snow Depth (40\%): The primary driver of winter severity. A deep snowpack transforms the environment and complicates daily life more than any other factor. Max Temperature (25\%): Weighted more heavily than the low, as the "high" temperature dictates how much (or little) relief there is during daylight hours. Snowfall (20\%): Captures the "active" severity of a storm event. Min Temperature (15\%): Accounts for the intensity of the air mass, particularly during overnight deep freezes. The Scale: Level 1-3: Mild winter days (Spring/Fall-like). Level 4-6: Typical winter days (Cold, perhaps a light dusting). Level 7-8: Significant Winter (Heavy snow or extreme cold). Level 9-10: "Deep Winter" (The absolute historical extremes). When we calibrate the Winter Severity Metric (WSM) specifically for the "core" winter window of December through March, the scale shifts to focus on the relative intensity of winter conditions. In this view, a score of 10 represents the historic extremes of the Harrisburg winter, while a 1 represents the mildest days that occur during the winter months. The Averages: Benchmarking a "Normal" Winter Based on historical data from 1899–2025, here are the baseline scores for a typical winter period in Middletown-Harrisburg. | Timeframe | Mean Score | Median Score | |---|---|---| | Winter Day | 3.45 | 2.98 | | Winter Week | 3.51 | 3.13 | | Winter Month | 3.46 | 3.23 | * Interpretation: A "median" winter day (roughly a 3.0) is typically clear and cold but lacks significant snow. Any day or week scoring above a 5.0 is considered "more severe than average," and scores above 7.0 are reserved for major winter events and extreme cold snaps. Top 10 Lists (Dec–Mar) 1. Top 10 Winter Seasons (Full Season Average) Calculated as the average daily WSM from December 1st through March 31st. * 1917–1918 (5.15): The all-time severe winter; dominated by the #1 month and multiple top weeks. * 1977–1978 (5.08): Defined by relentless snow depth that lasted through much of February. * 1904–1905 (5.07): An early century powerhouse with consistent arctic air. * 1993–1994 (4.96): Famous for repeated high-impact ice and snow events. * 1960–1961 (4.92): Contained the single most severe 7-day stretch in history. * 1969–1970 (4.91): A winter of extreme persistence in snow cover. * 1935–1936 (4.67): Record cold February coupled with significant snowpack. * 1919–1920 (4.63) * 1963–1964 (4.50) * 1995–1996 (4.46): Driven primarily by the legendary January '96 blizzard. 2. Top 10 Winter Months * January 1918 (7.59) * February 1978 (7.50) * January 1970 (7.46) * February 1936 (7.11) * January 1994 (6.78) * February 1905 (6.69) * January 1945 (6.61) * January 1961 (6.57) * January 1925 (6.49) * February 1994 (6.48) 3. Top 10 Winter Weeks (7-Day Non-Overlapping) * Jan 20 – Jan 26, 1961 (8.70): The peak of winter intensity in local history. * Jan 22 – Jan 28, 1918 (8.68) * Jan 29 – Feb 04, 1966 (8.57) * Jan 07 – Jan 13, 1996 (8.48) * Jan 29 – Feb 04, 1961 (8.46) * Dec 12 – Dec 18, 1917 (8.43) * Feb 07 – Feb 13, 1936 (8.39) * Jan 06 – Jan 12, 1970 (8.36) * Jan 19 – Jan 25, 1936 (8.28) * Jan 15 – Jan 21, 1918 (8.27) Commentary * The "Relentless" vs. "Extreme" Difference: A season like 1918 is the champion of "Relentless" winter (ranking #1 overall), while a week like January 1961 represents "Extreme" winter. In that week, temperatures barely moved, and the ground was buried, resulting in an average severity nearly 3 times higher than a normal winter day. * Modern Context: 1994 and 1996 are the only winters from the last 30 years to break into the all-time Top 10 seasons. The 1994 season was particularly unique because it placed two separate months (January and February) in the Top 10, indicating a long-duration severe winter rather than a single fluke event. * Threshold Dominance: Because Snow Depth is weighted at 40\%, months like February 1978 score extremely high. Even if it isn't the coldest month on record, having a foot of snow on the ground for 30 straight days is the most significant factor in creating a "Deep Winter" experience. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Imagine being in Raleigh? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Charlotte had 11" of snow on 0.51" qpf Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Ill let you know as soon as I teach myself to work with SQL databases and figure out how best to export a million rows and upwards of 40 million data points. Haha Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Speaking of snow pack. We are officially in a top 25 winter. As we are currently tied for 25th at 7 days for consecutive days of at least 7" of snow. To make it top 20 we need to hit 10 days. If we lose an inch then 11 days. Regardless with the forecast cold and chance of added snow we are primed for a top 20 winter ever in terms of snowpack duration. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I see two of the three main points in CTP AFD point to winds. Tonight into Sunday, and the end of next week with perhaps colder air than we currently have. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Our last storm I figured out the snowfall maps at 24 hours by the major models were not that much better than at 60 hours. The qpf maps were. I just think inherently the variation in ratios and qpf over such small areas is an absolute hurdle unless you're going to throw stupid amounts of $ via processing power and even then, you may get a bit more accurate. It isn't even the models are bad, it's just an impossible task Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

On the negative side we seemed primed to waste the best two weeks of cold in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Only 25-35mph winds Saturday night into Sunday? I thought we were primes for 40-50mph+++? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm really liking that storm mid week next week Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think they may verify for a blizzard Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'll take that 6" clipper system next and be thrilled Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I would say to trust any deterministic model in this setup is folly. Ensembles until 48 hours out. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's the surprise storm I was talking about. I wish I could find the forecast the night before up here. Im sure it was similar or worse than DC forecast of "Gusty snow showers, maybe an inch" where instead they woke up to 6" of snow in near blizzard conditions. I can't even imagine the shit storm if that happened today. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We need a phase unlike any we've seen in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

At this stage if you're going to look at run to run focus solely on the 500mb evolution. Without that there is nothing Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This storm seems like it can only succeed by threading the needle where it's almost all or nothing. If any storm has the potential to be a last second bust or surprise storm aka January 2000 it's this one. I think I'm just going to take a break till Friday evening and check on it then. Also we don't need to know about every model miss if that's your entire contribution. if you can't at least add something about its evolution or something of value. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I hope we score something because right now most models give .10 qpf the next 10-15 days. That ranks in bottom 10% of all periods with a mean temperature at or below what they are predicting for averag temperature Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Google model Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Correlation Is a snowy start a predictor of a snowy finish? General Correlation: Across all years since 1899, the correlation is nearly zero (0.08). In the broad historical sense, a snowy start to winter does not guarantee a snowy end. Qualifying Years Correlation: Interestingly, when looking only at the 28 seasons that started as snowy as this one, the correlation increases to 0.24. Interpretation: While the general rule is that early snow doesn't predict late snow, in "active" years like this one, there is a slight positive trend. History suggests that when the pattern is active enough to give us 21.7" by late January, it tends to stay slightly more active than a typical year through the spring. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Where do we go from here? Analyzing 21.7" by Jan 25th (Harrisburg/Middletown) Hey eve With our current seasonal total sitting at 21.7" as of January 25th, I decided to dig into the historical archives for the Middletown-Harrisburg area to see how this stacks up and what "history" says about the rest of our winter. I looked at every season since 1899 to find years that met or exceeded our current 21.7" by today’s date. Here’s the breakdown: The Historical Analogues There are 28 seasons in our history that reached this mark by Jan 25th. * Average Final Total: 48.4" * Snowiest Year in this Group: 1960-1961 (Finished at 81.3") * Least Snowy Year in this Group: 1987-1988 (Finished at 26.7") What’s Left in the Tank? (Snow after Jan 25th) Looking only at what fell after today’s date in those 28 seasons: * Average remaining snow: 17.6" * Median remaining snow: 15.5" * The "Boom" Scenario: 1993-1994 added a massive 45.6" after Jan 25th! * The "Bust" Scenario: 1953-1954 only added 1.5" more. The "Confidence" Forecast Based strictly on these 28 historical matches, here is the probability for our final seasonal total: * 90% Certainty: We finish with at least 27.1" * 75% Certainty: We finish with at least 30.6" * 50% Certainty (The Coin Flip): We finish with at least 37.2" * 25% Certainty: We finish with at least 47.7" * 10% Certainty (The Longshot): We finish with at least 53.4" Context: The Big 2-Day Hitters For those wondering about the "big one," here are the top 2-day totals ever recorded in our data: * 30.2" (Jan 22-23, 2016) * 25.0" (Feb 11-12, 1983) * 22.2" (Jan 7-8, 1996) * 21.0" (Jan 15-16, 1945) * 20.4" (Mar 13-14, 1993) Summary: History suggests we are about 55-60% of the way through our seasonal snowfall. If we follow the "average" of our historical peers, we're looking at another 17" or so before spring. What do you guys think? Do we follow the 1994 path (+45") or the 1954 path (+1.5")? [emoji3587][emoji409] Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

There were 17 seasons where the official Harrisburg station recorded 14" plus in a 2-day or less event since 1890. Here are the stats Statistics for these 17 Seasons: Count: 17 Mean: 49.91" Std Dev: 18.54" Median (50%): 47.20" Min: 23.90" Max: 81.30" 25th Percentile: 38.00" 75th Percentile: 57.70" For 12" plus Statistics for these 31 Seasons: Count: 31 Mean: 45.82" Std Dev: 16.39" Median (50%): 39.50" Min: 23.90" Max: 81.30" 25th Percentile: 34.95" 75th Percentile: 54.45 For 10" plus Statistics for these 48 Seasons: Count: 48 Mean: 42.90" Std Dev: 15.12" Median (50%): 39.30" Min: 18.40" Max: 81.30" 25th Percentile: 33.50" 75th Percentile: 50.85" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk