Jns2183

I hope that verifies! It's so bonkers and a perfect encapsulation of CAD Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The model outputs a couple days ago started for the south and Missouri valley started Twitter arguments between metrologist so intense it ended up all over the news. I think a prudent thing to do is look who was right tomorrow morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Also the warm nose can stay negative but still screw enough with snowflake microphysics you end up with ratios well below 10:1 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

https://x.com/i/status/2014730518286242198 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

There's some approaching 3feet today Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

There's video going around from that lake effect mega snow band in New York showing what 7" per hour rates are like. Basically like being inside a cloud. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Look at the satellite water vapor images in western Canada. That high is hauling ass down and that might be why Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We aren't getting steep lapse rates within the dgz (thunder snow!) that can easily overcome a small dgz, this storm. Our rates are maxed when we get a huge dgz with good accent and lapse rates above it. Compare image used to show this (1st) with that one from the GFS when rates are great. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Great summary Im definitely leaning towards a 50/50 blend right now When we're staring at model snowfall maps for the next storm, you'll often see options like the plain old 10:1 ratio (10 inches of snow per 1 inch of liquid) or the Kuchera method, which a lot of sites use because it's supposed to be smarter. The Kuchera approach looks at the warmest temperature anywhere in the atmospheric column (usually up to about 18,000 feet) and plugs it into a formula to tweak the ratio. If that max temp is really cold (say below about -2°C or 28°F), it can spit out fluffy ratios well above 10:1—sometimes 20:1 or more—while warmer columns drop it down toward 5:1 or even lower to account for denser, wetter snow or partial melting. It's a quick way to adjust totals without needing super detailed soundings, and it often gives higher accumulations than straight 10:1 in cold-air setups.But here's the catch that a lot of amateurs (and even some pros) overlook: Kuchera basically ignores the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), that magic layer between roughly -12°C and -18°C where those big, starry, branching snowflakes form best. Those dendrites trap tons of air and stack up super fluffy (high ratios like 15:1–30:1+), especially when the whole layer stays saturated and deep. Kuchera just keys off the single warmest temp in the column, so it can seriously underestimate snowfall in setups with a nice, cold, deep DGZ even if the column max isn't ultra-frigid, or overestimate in marginal/warm cases. Next time you're comparing maps, check model soundings for how beefy that -12° to -18°C layer looks Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

My biggest concern is the alignment of when we have truly thick dendritic growth zone to when we have the best omega Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Big Jan 96 vibes with the multiple storms and artic cold Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Someone made these from 00z model models Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

After the epic storm drought we've had I think it would take us getting less than 7" for me to feel slightly jibbed. I do think now we end up in the 12"-14" range much more than 16"-18" range it won't affect my enjoyment Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

It's still 15-17_ Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

GFS had all 12 of new drops the hurricane hunters did today. The new Euro will as well Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha, speaking of news stations Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If this wasn't starting so damn early Sunday I'd say a few here could handle the game with beer provided double or triple aren't in the name. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Which Harrisburg station (CBS?) was the one whose January 2016 forcast for Harrisburg as the Storm started was confidently 8-12" (I think NWS was 12" or 16" to 20") kept showing map for awhile even after we surpassed it quickly from waa alone. New guy came in early morning, put up map with 24"+ without comment next to the radar loop of that stationary 60 mile wide band full of yellow that hadn't budged as it was maturing over us and just went with it? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

17.5" Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Mdt 17" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Weather world today about our big recent snow drought Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Still not sure, but the nam sent me in search of raw bufkit data. I did find that for faw 18z NAM data that the a few hours with sleet but God it was only between 25mb for most and barely a degree above freezing. I'm skeptical. My eyes also hurt from that shit Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

17.5" on the 1.45" qpf from NBM IS 12:1 Ratio If we hit 15:1 it's 22" To make top 10 we have to break 15" 7 is 17.5" 5 is 20" 3 is 22.2 (blizzard of 96) Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Rarely have I ever seen them start with snowfall amounts about 75% percentile from 1300NBM guidance Ratio ratios ratios Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk