Jns2183

I suspect things explode as line comes off mountain .

I have looked into how they determine model errors vs actual forecasts vs observed and god help you if you don’t have a strong background in statistics. I sorta understand it, and maybe could explain it when I have time to review my notes, but it is not intuitive. I suspect it’s more correct doing it how they do it, but I was hoping to find more localized analysis and that seems not possible unless you posses a login for noaa to access certain information .

That may shatter a few records .

Do you know anywhere that has a dataset of Max dew point for each day? I know I can pull hourly observations but I have no clue how far back that goes and even so I don’t know enough coding to use Python to do it in any kind of efficient manner. 262,000 lines of observation isn’t handled well in excel or google sheets. You need store such data in a .txt file realistically and call it within python or Matlab or upload it to a different google service and use API to call it to run the statistics using python or some less well known languages. .

Maybe on its on but you had ida interacting with a strong frontal boundary with a high thermal gradient that created conditions where she was deepening just as she hit the mid Atlantic .

Man are they having a moist time .

How long will the boring stretch last? .

Over 6” .

Approaching 4” fast in camp hill .

.

My friend up near shermansdale has 3.6” since yesterday evening including 1.04” in 14 min .

RadarScope is down .

Man it just let loose for 5 min here with rain. Those little cells mean business .

.

This event could feature just about every aspect of severe summer weather rolled into 1 day. With Harrisburg and points north having flash flood emergency while York and Lancaster counties feature tornado warnings. .

Ensemble mean. Wow .

Convection is blowing up. Wow .

4 16oz beers of 8% is the required amount to drink to post on here past 9pm .

Someone here is going to see 10”+ .

My parents had a 60ft tree fall after Lee. No wind. Just soaked ground. Any wind whatsoever will be bad .

So with the low strengthens as it goes under us as it undergoes post tropical transformation is there any worry of stronger winds mixing down in the heavy convection cause that is a wildcard that would make this far far worse .

The Hires short term models paint a lot larger area of heavy rain. Being a tropical system you almost have to weight numbers being underdone as it will be quite efficient as wringing moisture out .

Far enough where Agnes II would be required before I was worried .

.

Whenever people said it was a south trend or a north trend it seems regardless Cumberland and dauphin counties have been smoked on every model run for days it seems. .