Jns2183

What I would give to find access to the text output of the 15 daily snow totals of each ensemble for each run for last 7 days. Can you post the qbf totals for each ensemble at runs end? For us at least I think 35%, maybe more of those totals come Wednesday storm on there. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

That tuesday-wednesday time frame has been one of more impressive signals I've ever seen just do the fact it hasn't budged really from OP and ensemble models for last 5 maybe 6 days. Knock on wood it comes through as modeled in 4 days it would have given weenies 40 straight model runs of pleasure. On a side note, I remember reading that the signal for the blizzard of 93 being a crazy HECS on all the models came so early was so off the charts in strength, and consistency that the scientists in charge of physics and mathematics of the models thought a fundamental error in the basic weather physics formula was the cause for a couple days cause for a couple days leading to a panicked goose hunt to locate it Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I would love to see the close up snow amounts for the ensembles for this upcoming Sunday, Thursday, then normal end of run ones. A strong signal is definitely there. I just wonder how much of the end of run totals are due to Wednesday storm which has been pretty consistent over multiple runs of all the models. It seems almost that with so damn much QPF headed this way each ensemble got to there amounts differently each run, but that bit of uncertainty was masked somewhat by the final totals being somewhat consistent. Who knows. It all may work out just due to how many chances keep getting thrown to us. I'm very confident in a nice moderate snowfall Tuesday to Wednesday. I'm praying the system after that doesn't bull rush lake Erie sending 60s to Massachusetts and 1.5" to 2" of rain to entire east coast. Euro had the snow from that pretty much confined to Toronto and West. That was the hecs the GFS lost. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

At 12z on Wednesday 2/12 we are sitting at 6" of snow on 1.6" QPF At 0z on Friday 2/21 we are at 6.1" of snow on 3.7" QPF Haha, what's even worse is that those 2 dates are 204 hours apart. We are forecast to be below freezing 171 of those hours or more than 80%. That model run was pure nightmare fuel Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Yes, but after Tuesday it wants to drive the low Thursday/Friday up to Buffalo which screws the pooch on the boundary. Using 10-1 ratios it gives me 4.2" by 6z Wednesday 2/12 (hr 126 on the Oz) 4.9" by 6z Wednesday 2/19 (hr 296). So less than 1" in 7 days between. Looking at total snowfall by 6z Wednesday 2/12 & 2/19 it's easy to calculate that's week snowfall over time. here are previous runs with associated total 10:1 snowfall 04/12z. 5.5". 8.2" 05/00z 15.6" 22.6" 05/12z 8.1 10.8" 06/00z 5.9" 6.1" 06/12z 2.9". 3.4" 07/00z 4.2" 4.9" A quick look at the GFS total snow for Wednesday 2/19 at 6z has been consistent at close to 6" on 1.2" qpf till then. The issue with 0z once more it snows 1" more the next 8 days. Oh we get 1.5"-2" of qpf in those days just it's all a mix or rain. The GFS seems to have heaviest snow Tuesday and Wednesday around Richmond at times. The ensembles have been amazing for all 3 big models. But after seeing the euro now trying to drag 60s to almost Boston Sunday, getting Lancaster to mid 50s while sending the low West of Pittsburgh I can see how this whole thing can go wrong. I give it even odds kmdt sees 10" total for February Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I don't know how it's in mount joy, but the Cumberland valley, especially 10 miles or less from Susquehanna almost always have significant issues getting out cold. As for issues with thermals,we basically follow everyone else Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

So I someone just wandered onto this amazing weather links page that Jon Nese, the Penn State University associate chair for the undergrad department of meteorology, kept in pretty much the same format from the 90s when I'm guessing it was first put online. It's organization is incredible and the overall depth is as well. It scrolls down like the equivalent of 10 pages deep in today's website design. Regardless I found like five or six very interesting tools all focused on the upcoming winter weather that I never knew existed in a couple minutes of looking at the page. https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.psu.edu/dist/a/111486/files/2023/07/natlwx.htm Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Pittsburgh is in the middle of a weird weather night. That lightning definitely held together and here's a quick dirty local lightning map for last 30 min. So 230-300am. That said the airport and points downtown are mostly between 30-34 degrees. The real funky temperatures are on the west side of Allegheny front with anyone from 1000' -1400' between 37-40. Anyway ne close by up above 1550' is still below freezing. Until you reach seven springs at 2700' and Somerset at 2300' and it's 28 there. And 29 at fort Hill at 3200 I'm just surprised there is a 5-10 degree difference for temperature for those below 1000' and above 1500' compared to that 400 foot high ribbon for those on the Allegheny ridge Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I would think a wsw would be prudent Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Question now is if its necessary Thursday to shovel an inch of concrete or if it will for sure all melt before refreeze Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

@MAG5035 had two great posts late night the last two nights that make me give credence to the sleet bomb angle above all. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Such a narrow streak of fluffy. It's going to suck watching it dump a mile away from the window as it throws me a pity flurry or two Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Do schools go for the 2 hour delay or the full day close? I feel the 2 hour delay way too optimistic. I'm sure they will all just transition to online day and close. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

This temperature gradient is something else Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

If there's a layer of sleet it will acreate Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Most of it is occurring at night overnight Wednesday Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Places in Japan just got 34" in 6 hours from a synoptic system bombing out. 40"-50" entire storm totals Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

It's that one two combo that can really cause havoc. It might be tougher freezing rain to accrete on asphalt at 30° but not on top of sleet. That's the recipe for a glacier Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

CAD Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Next 24 hours will be like a yo-yo Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Maybe he's resting up since he won't be sleeping much next week with 3 storms in 5 days Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

We haven't had a good true ice storm in forever here. I don't think this one will be a damaging one so I'm going to let myself get excited for it. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Snowfall % of average Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Streamflow Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

If we can get a 6" plus 10" storm out of this plus a bunch of sleet and ice we can get a nice glacier pack that will push the boundary south for March fun Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk