Definitely going to bust low. Possibly they were looking at the high res short term models like the HRRR. Also, there's a pocket of dry air on the DVN radar but it's filling in slowly.
Lowering my call to 1 inch of snow. However, I expect to get nothing just like on 11/25/2018. Next!
EDIT: Nam 3k jumped back north and gives CR over 6 inches. Not sure if I believe that.
0z HRRR still gives Cedar Rapids a decent amount of snow even if the moderate/heavy snow only lasts a few hours. HRRR shows 4-5 inches for Cedar Rapids.
In other news, freezing drizzle is causing alot of travel problems in central and western Iowa. Reports of many crashes. Roads in eastern Iowa are so far wet according to the Iowa 511 road conditions map. The NAM and the HRRR picked up the freezing drizzle potential a couple days ago.
Lowering my call down to 3.5 inches.
EDIT: Snow axis on the HRRR hasn't changed, but it's significantly drier. Also, amounts really cut down for Chicago except for right along the lake. ALEK is going to bust high.
12z euro unchanged in totals (i'm not a subscriber to Pivotal Weather Plus, too expensive). Can someone with a Pivotal Weather Plus subscription post the kuchera method map?
15z RAP north of the 12z HRRR in terms of snow totals. Not sure if I believe that. However, the 12z RGEM gave CR about 5 inches of snow. Toss? Have to wait for the 18z HRRR to see if it stays south or shifts back slightly north.