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Natester

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Everything posted by Natester

  1. Natester
    That is very true. Of course, if a tornado hits their house, they won't be complacent anymore.
  2. Natester
    I can't remember the last time a high risk busted like this.
  3. Natester
    This. Not to mention that they often report that towns hit by tornadoes had no warning when in reality they had plenty of warning. Me thinks they do it just for ratings.
  4. Natester
    4/2/2017
  5. Natester
    KFOR live feed just went down. EDIT: Nevermind, it's back up.
  6. Natester
    Cells in SW Oklahoma starting to really go off. Already have the supercellular look.
  7. Natester
    Yes, back on 4/7/2006 in Tennessee.
  8. Natester
    Cells along and south of the warm front in Oklahoma still having trouble going off. Bad sign? Different story in NW Texas with several discrete supercells.
  9. Natester
    Initiation east of Cooperton, Oklahoma. Lets see if they blow up or if they fizzle out. They show up as little tiny showers on KFDR.
  10. Natester
    Warm front possibly over OKC right now per this image.
  11. Natester
    Warm front currently south of OKC.
  12. Natester
    45% tornado potential hatched introduced in the most recent outlook. First time since 4/14/12.
  13. Natester
    MCS in northwest Oklahoma backbuilding a bit to the south according to radar. Time will tell if it backbuilds all the way into Texas (and thus verifying the NAM 3k solution).
  14. Natester
    Latest HRRR shifted north quite a bit, now in line with the 3k NAM. Pretty much a lock now. Should note that the HRRR has Cedar Rapids in a few hours of sleet before the backend snows hit.
  15. Natester
    0z NAM (12k) is a bit north of the HRRR and RAP (in terms of the track of the surface low). However, the axis of snow is exactly the same as shown on the HRRR and RAP. EDIT: 0z NAM 3k also a bit north of the RAP and HRRR. Hardly any accumulation for Cedar Rapids (which I don't mind).
  16. Natester
    Yeah, although the axis of heavy snow didn't shift south much.
  17. Natester
    Most recent RAP and the last few HRRR runs have the low (the one in Colorado) tracking straight east. Low doesn't bump to the north when it merges with the other low from Wyoming. As for the heavy snow axis, a very slight tick south.
  18. Natester
    LOT pulls the trigger and issues a Winter Storm Watch for their northern CWA. Good call.
  19. Natester
    Indeed, I was going to make a post stating that I hope LOT doesn't make an epic fail on this storm like they did on the previous winter storm back a couple weeks ago. The models say "Chicago is going to get buried". Of course, to be realistic, the actual totals will likely be 3 to 4 inches lower than the projected snow totals as shown on the models.
  20. Natester
    Dubuque and northern Illinois gets buried by cement. Really bad for the leafing trees.
  21. Natester
    Looks like 1-3 inches is all but certain for Cedar Rapids. Since most of the trees are in the process of leafing out, there's going to be some tree damage but I doubt power outages will be widespread. Can't say the same for those who will get dumped on with 6+ inches of cement (with the trees well along in the leafing process, it will be just like getting a half inch of ice).
  22. Natester
    Yes but then the models went south and weaker. If they go even further south then it's major ice storm territory. The NAM has a big area of .50+ ice accumulation for much of Iowa, although much of that would be runoff. And to add insult to injury, yet another storm system on Tuesday/Wednesday. Looks to be mostly a rainer for this subforum but that could change.
  23. Natester
    Same here. 3 hours of ZR before changeover to snow. Likely at least a couple tenths of an inch of ice for here, plus there will be some wind which will mean some power problems.
  24. Natester
    Most models at the moment have the low traveling through Iowa this weekend. The UKMET and ICON are the models that have the system way south, much weaker and slower arrival time (aka the models that paint a significant ice storm for Iowa). EDIT: Navgem takes the low through Chicago, almost identical to the ICON. Not as weak but I would imagine an icy scenario for Iowa.
  25. Natester
    The german model (ICON) has continued to be the furthest south (and coldest) with this system and still shows significant ice storm potential for much of eastern Iowa. That could possibly change.
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