Natester

You lucked out. Last time we lost power in an ice storm was back on February 24, 2007 (got a little over a half an inch of ice). Was in the dark for 26 hours. The ice threat here should be very short lived (1-2 hours) before changeover to sleet/snow.

Just curious, did you lose power in the February 11, 2019 ice storm? With the winds expected on Saturday evening, it's not going to be good for ice laden trees and powerlines.

Speaking of that, although on a miniature scale, back on February 25 of last year, there was a frozen puddle right by the ramp out in the backyard. Some of the snow melted on February 23 of last year and then refroze as temps went below freezing. Wasn't paying attention to what I was walking on and slipped and fell and gave myself a sore back that lasted for 2 weeks. Not fun.

That and with the wind with part 2 (Saturday), there's going to be massive power outages in the corridor with siggy to extreme icing. Icing stays southeast of Cedar Rapids by about 35 miles. Might get clipped by sleet on Saturday, though.

One thing that hasn't changed is the narrow corridor from MO through SE Iowa into NW Illinois of extreme icing, although much of that is likely runoff.

0z NAM back to what it was in the 12z run, in other words, back to reality.

Freezing rain accumulation map please? If you have it, that is.

The GFS will cave once the storm gets sampled, I hope.

No change in the 18z ICON when it comes to Friday's wave.

Cyclone77 gets wrecked by ice. At least it isn't me, although might have a close call with ice for a brief time on Saturday.

Now the question is if the other models join the NAM in this new trend.

The CMC is currently the only model that has ice (not counting sleet) for a few hours in Cedar Rapids, although with falling temps, it could turn into sleet early. All the other models have either sleet or snow for here.

0z GFS just a smidge north with round one.

Someone, somewhere along a very narrow axis is going to get a crippling ice storm, especially areas close to the Mississippi River in Iowa. As for here in Cedar Rapids, it's likely going to be a sleet/snow mix unless the forecast track shifts more NW again.

12z ICON shows a HUGE sleet axis from KS to WI. 12z CMC shows roughly the same thing except not as pronounced. Very narrow axis of freezing rain in both models.

Not in the subforum but this is one of two tornado reports in central Iowa from today where temps are only at 40-42F. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 433 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2019 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0405 PM TORNADO 4 NE GUTHRIE CENTER 41.73N 94.45W 11/30/2019 GUTHRIE IA PUBLIC TWO REPORTS OF BRIEF SPIN-UP ROPE TORNADO ROUGHLY 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE CITY. DID NOT LAST LONG.

12z ICON lost the late week storm.

12z ICON had the low travel due north from extreme western Kentucky into extreme southeast Wisconsin, there it does a loop. 850 mb winds are over 100 KNOTS in east central Iowa in the ICON. Let that sink in, that's surface gusts in the 70+ mph range. Thankfully the Euro and CMC has the low much further east.

Yikes! For here, the winds won't be too bad in the late week system (although gusts will approach 40 mph), although we could get 4-6 inches of snow from that. The early week system snow line looks to be just west of west of here. Nonetheless, going to be disastrous for the crops as the harvest hasn't even began. The October 26, 1997 snowstorm ruined almost all of the soybean crop and half of the corn crop in the affected areas, according to the NCDC event log for that snowstorm.

These two snowstorms are going to be disastrous to the harvest. Millions of dollars of crops will likely be lost due to the snow. Also, not so good news for the power grid as much of the trees still have leaves on them.

ICON shows wind gusts approaching 80 mph over much of eastern Iowa with the late week blizzard, with snow accumulations over a foot. As for the Euro, the wind gusts are nowhere near as strong (only in the 40 mph range). We'll see if the 12z CMC shows it too because it looks like a repeat of 1991, except farther east and without the ice.

12z Euro says repeat of 1991 (Halloween blizzard), albeit a couple days early, not as much wind and hardly any ice. Also, somewhere down the line I expect the GFS to latch on to this potential storm, unless the Euro and CMC loses the storm.

00z Euro continues to crush IA, MN and WI with a blizzard next week. 00z CMC has two snowstorms next week also. 06z GFS and 12z ICON shows nothing so far. If the Euro or CMC verifies, look at the potential for widespread power outages due to most of the trees still having leaves on them (think of October 26, 1997).

Compiled this playlist of all of the videos that I could find of the tornadoes on April 27, 2011. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLm_yeRok75NttgF3fZOvt2X7dLS5NfJtj

New footage of the Tuscaloosa tornado. At the 35 second mark, you'll notice that it gets dark very quickly. After watching the video a few times, it appears that the tornado passed just feet from their house.