snowlover2

The slight risk area in IA has been expanded southeast to cover the east half of MO and extreme west central/southwest IL for today.

26 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I was just about to post that survey. It looks like one of the expected funnels actually made it to the ground. lol at the estimated wind speed, barely reaching severe levels.

EDIT: Of course, it happened in Van Wert County, the tornado magnet of Ohio

I think Xenia might have something to say about that.

Surprised no one is talking about this severe threat in the southern plains. SPC just added a moderate risk area for parts of KS/OK/TX.

Quote

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY... Significant severe storms capable of destructive winds, very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible on Sunday across much of Kansas, northern Oklahoma and into the eastern Texas Panhandle. A few severe storms are also possible from Missouri toward Tennessee and Kentucky.

...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-Missouri Valley... A shortwave trough will migrate across the Plains, bringing a band of 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow across the region. At the surface, rich low level moisture (dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s) will be in place ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from a surface low over the TX Panhandle. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of NE at the beginning of the period. Further south, some cloud debris is possible from overnight convection in the Day 1 period, but the airmass across KS into OK should experience strong heating. As such, an extremely unstable airmass will evolve by afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding convective evolution, with the NAM forecast continuing to be an outlier compared to other deterministic and hi-res guidance. Expect that one or more clusters will develop across NE along the front and track east/southeast through the morning. Additional storms will then develop southward along the front across western KS, as well as across the OK/TX Panhandles in the vicinity of the surface low/triple point. 40+ kt deep layer shear coupled with very steep lapse rates will favor initial supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Cells likely will not stay discrete long and quick upscale growth is expected. The strength of deep layer shear and degree of instability will support widespread damaging winds, with many significant wind gusts possible. Any cell that can remain discrete will pose a tornado threat initially given high-quality low level moisture (mean mixing rations around 17 g/kg) and favorable low level shear. Additionally, embedded mesovortex circulations are possible once upscale growth occurs. One or more bowing segments are expected to track east/southeast across KS and northern OK overnight, with strong wind potential being maintained due to increasing 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet. Additional strong to severe storm are possible in warm advection across MO into IA. A very unstable and moist airmass will be in place, though deep layer shear will remain more modest. Still, steep low level lapse rates and high PW values could result in scattered strong wind gusts

. ...Portions of the mid-Mo Valley into KY/TX Vicinity... A weak lead shortwave impulse will track eastward across the region during the afternoon. This will provide enough deep layer shear and forcing some organized cells capable of strong wind gusts. Lapse rates will remain poor in spite of moderate instability, limiting large hail potential.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 45% SIG - Moderate Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

..Leitman/Smith.. 06/23/2018

There's a marginal area now for E IN and most of Ohio today. Big change from yesterday's forecast for today when it looked to be dry. ILN has a nice write up.

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 943 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

 

My how things have changed.....

A lot to digest early this morning both observationally and through NWP when diagnosing the potential for convection this afternoon and evening. GOES 16 channels showing rapidly weakening MCS across MI this morning but a very apparent compact MCV left behind over lower MI, churning southeast with storms on its wrn and southeastern flank. MCS outflow has surged south into the ILN CWA on a Richmond IN to Delaware OH line, with accas billowing along it. Area radar VWPs do show stronger mid level flow /30kt/ in proximity to the MCV vs further south over southern OH. The 16.12Z KILN sounding was not unstable /yet/ with modest mid-level lapse rates and weak flow throughout the troposphere, however RAP soundings immediately west of here /Indiana/ show a large pool of instability lies just upstream. Through tonight - while highly performing global models /ECMWF/ have a dry forecast through tonight - the convective-permitting forecast guidance is much less optimistic. There seems to be a growing consensus of 3-4km guidance which initiates convection this afternoon over northern/central Ohio as the wrn flank of the MCV grazes the forecast area with stronger flow/forcing. This will be allowed due to the orientation of the mid-level ridge - such that as the MCV churns southeast this morning - it will turn more decidedly SSE this afternoon in a weakness on the backside of the ridge. Thus, given the large pool of CAPE over Indiana poised and ready to move on weak swly low level flow - rapid destabilization is expected through early afternoon north of the dying outflow. Due to weak forcing overall, hour-to-hour consistency via HRRR/RAP and other convective permitting guidance is poor on location/timing - but the picture is pretty clear that convection will be in the ILN CWA this afternoon and evening - and storm motions will be chaotic owing to a larger instability reservoir to the west, prevailing mid level winds pushing southeast, and outflow which will tend to be on NW-SE axis. Expect cores to move south/southeast - but net motion of clusters will probably /at the end of the day/ show some form of south to southwest net propagation - and this is clearly shown by Corfidi vector changes through the day which end up pointing southwest by this evening. Hazard will be almost-primarily limited to isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts with consolidating cores/outflow. This will be most prevalent along/west of I-71 where numerous downdraft parameters are aligned to showing greater threat. Deep layer flow is generally weak, with some modest enhancement due to the MCV in the 3-4km layer which may help add a bit of organization. But with very weak low level flow, outflows will be quick to race out ahead of convection. Increased rain chances most locations, with minimums in the Scioto Valley and northern Kentucky, and highest in central/west-central Ohio into southeast Indiana. This activity should very rapidly weaken past 7 PM or so with the onset of nocturnal cooling and a decoupling boundary layer and very little feed of theta-e above the inversion. Knocked a few degrees off the highs esp north of I-70 this afternoon. Quiet conditions are expected tonight, though it will be a very warm night, with temps near 70 and dewpoints in the mid 60s.

Appears a tornado possibly touched down in SE IN west of Cincy about an hour ago.

Slight risk added from NE IA through NE WI on the new day 1 with marginal surrounding that. Pretty big change especially IA which for the most part wasn't even in the general storm area. Also marginal expanded northward in S IL and S OH.

New tornado warning NW of Terre Haute IN.

Tornado warning for Bloomington IL.

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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Lincoln IL 125 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018 ILC113-101845- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180610T1845Z/ McLean- 125 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY... At 125 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Bloomington, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Downs around 130 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Shirley, Ellsworth, Bloomington Airport and Holder. This includes the following highways... Interstate 55 between mile markers 150 and 159, and between mile markers 168 and 170. Interstate 74 between mile markers 132 and 148.

Sounds like a slight risk upgrade coming for parts of IL/IN and maybe Ohio on the next day 1 update.

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Areas affected...Central/Southern IL...Central/Southern IN...Western KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101504Z - 101700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the lower and middle OH Valley during the next few hours. Isolated and marginal nature of the threat will likely preclude the need for a watch this morning into the early afternoon. However, late afternoon thunderstorms across western and central IL will likely merit an upgrade to Slight risk in the upcoming 1630Z Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms currently moving through east-central IL and central IN, which originated via warm-air advection in the wake of an overnight MCS, will continue to move southeastward across the OH Valley. This cluster is displaced northward of the better instability, suggesting a relatively low threat for severe thunderstorms. Some hail may be possible as a result of storm interaction, particularly on the back building west end of the cluster, but the overall severe threat appears low. More cellular convection has recently developed across far southern IN and adjacent portions of western KY along the leading outflow from the overnight MCS. As with areas farther north, a generally isolated severe threat is expected given the lack of instability and displacement south of the stronger flow aloft. A few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts constitute the highest severe hazard. Farther west, a complex surface pattern exists. A surface low was analyzed just north of the IA/MO/IL border intersection with an effective warm front extending southeastward across central IL. Warm air advection across this boundary is supporting backbuilding convection near PIA. As mentioned previously, some isolated hail is possible in this area. A more widespread severe threat may develop across western IL this afternoon along and south/southwest of the warm front and an upgrade to Slight risk is probable with the upcoming 1630Z Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/10/2018

New day 2 remains the same but they mention higher probs likely needed for IL/IN in later outlooks.

Quote

...Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley... Moderate surface-based instability will likely develop in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary front given a very moist (upper 60s dew points) low-level air mass. Thunderstorm coverage will depend on mesoscale features, particularly the locations of convectively-enhanced upper-level disturbances embedded within modest west-northwest mid-level flow, and residual outflow boundaries. Isolated damaging winds will be the primary severe risk, with some risk for severe hail with the strongest storms. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be warranted across portions of IL/IN, where a more prominent MCV should be located Sunday afternoon. Given uncertainties regarding the evolution of Day 1 thunderstorms Saturday night, will retain Marginal categorical risk with this outlook.

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like LAF is getting nailed.  The airport gusted to 52 mph on the most recent ob... which is impressive as it seemed like it often came in on the lower end when I was there.

Might get hammered here before long if those storms NW of me hold together.

Anyone else get a kick out of the 0z GGEM for next Monday-Wednesday morning? Almost looked like it was trying to show a derecho.

Nice little line of storms moving into western IN.

Thought I was going to get split by the bow echo moving south of me and scattered severe moving just north of me but an OFB moving NE from the north part of the bow echo moved in and a storm exploded just west of me. Wasn't severe but had 30-40mph winds and torrential rain.

Watch just issued for SE IL and southern half of IN.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
     Southeast Illinois
     Southern Indiana
     Northern Kentucky

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1030 AM
     until 500 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...A cluster of fast-moving thunderstorms over southern
   Illinois will track eastward across the watch area today, posing a
   risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles either side of a line from 45 miles west northwest of
   Evansville IN to 50 miles north northeast of Louisville KY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   26035.

   ...Hart

New day 1 has an enhanced area for SE MO/S IL/SW IN/NW KY for wind and significant hail.

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IN...AND FAR WESTERN KY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible
   Thursday from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and
   Tennessee Valleys as well as the northern High Plains and northern
   Rockies.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper trough currently extending along the West Coast will gradually
   progress eastward throughout the day, likely extending from southern
   British Columbia through the Great Basin by 12Z Friday. Ridging will
   build across the Plains with the increasingly confluent flow ahead
   of the upper trough contributing to a gradual strengthening of the
   mid-level flow ahead of it. Farther east, the remnants of Alberto
   will continue northward into central Ontario, eventually becoming
   absorbed into the shortwave trough moving gradually across Ontario
   and upper Great Lakes.

   At the surface, low currently over eastern MT will become more
   defined throughout the day. Lee troughing will extend southward from
   this low to another low over southeast CO. Convective outflow from
   the ongoing MCS across northern OK/southern KS is expected to extend
   from southern IL across southern MO and into northeast OK.

   ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS, Lower OH, and TN Valleys...
   Expectation is for the remnants/convectively induced vorticity from
   the ongoing MCS over northern OK/southern KS to move across central
   MO and into central IL from the early afternoon into the early
   evening. Outflow from this system will likely extend southwestward
   from southern IL across southern MO and into northeast OK. Both of
   these features (i.e. the vorticity maximum and outflow boundary)
   will act as stimuli for convection as the airmass destabilizes.
   Given the mesoscale nature of both of these features, some
   uncertainty exists regarding their actual location during the
   afternoon but consensus, both from the HREF members and NAM/GFS,
   places them near the areas described above.

   Airmass across the region will be quite moist with surface dewpoints
   in the upper 60s/low 70s and 100-mb mean mixing ratios near 15 to 16
   g per kg. Strong diurnal heating is also anticipated, with
   temperatures in the upper 80s during the afternoon.  Mid-level lapse
   rates aren't overly steep but the warm and very moist airmass still
   supports MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg. Additionally, some enhancement to
   the mid-level flow is possible as a result of the remnant MCS.
   Expectation is for initial discrete storms capable of very large
   hail to quickly transition into more linear/bowing segments favoring
   damaging wind gusts. Low-level flow isn't particularly favorable for
   tornadoes but the presence of the outflow boundary, strong low-level
   instability, and very moist airmass still supports a low-end tornado
   threat.

   Across the remainder of the region, favorable low-level moisture
   will result in afternoon destabilization and thunderstorm
   development amidst the broad low-level confluence. Isolated damaging
   wind gusts and hail will be possible with the more persistent
   updrafts and/or as a result of storm interactions.

 

15/5/2

June 1/0/0

July 3/1/0

August  3/1/1

September  6/2/1

October  2/1/0

Nov/Dec  0/0/0

T-storm watch until 9pm for SE IN/extreme N KY/most of Ohio.

Watch possible.

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0489
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Far Northwest Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

   Valid 221657Z - 221930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop this afternoon
   from eastern Indiana east-northeastward across Ohio into far
   northwest Pennsylvania. Wind damage and isolated large hail are
   expected to be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will need
   to be considered as storms increase in coverage and intensity.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front located from
   northwest Ohio southwestward into west-central Indiana. Surface
   dewpoints along and just ahead of the front are in the upper 60s to
   near 70 F. Surface temperatures are now in the 75 to 80 F range and
   the RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
   of 1000 to 1500 J/k across eastern Indiana and western Ohio.
   Thunderstorms have developed over the last hour along the front near
   the strongest instability. Thunderstorms will continue to expand in
   coverage as low-level convergence increases along the front and as a
   shortwave trough moves from west to east across the region. In
   addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate
   deep-layer shear. For example, the Cleveland VWP has 0-6 km shear
   near 30 kt with unidirectional winds from the west-southwest. This
   wind profile should support a potential for damaging wind gusts with
   multicells especially as low-level lapse rates steepen over the next
   few hours. Cells that have rotation may also be capable of producing
   isolated large hail.

   ..Broyles/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

Most of Ohio in a slight risk now for today.

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 Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this
   afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and
   Ohio Valley, as well as over portions of the High Plains and
   north-central Rockies.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley...
   Visible imagery indicates thinning cloud cover over Indiana and much
   of Ohio which will permit stronger diabatic heating and air mass
   destabilization to occur this afternoon, in advance of a
   southeastward moving cold front located from extreme northwest Ohio
   into southwest Indiana.  The decrease in cloud cover will spread
   into western Pennsylvania with time and contribute to a gradual
   increase in heating.  MLCAPE is expected to reach 1000-1500 J/kg,
   with greater instability expected with westward extent. 

   Short bands of mainly shallow convection are developing along/ahead
   of the front from northwest Ohio into east central Indiana.
   Updrafts within this activity are expected to strengthen with
   several bands of northeast-southwest oriented thunderstorms forming
   by early-mid afternoon.  The storms will be located on the southern
   edge of stronger westerly winds aloft, including the right entrance
   region of an upper level jet, resulting in deep layer shear of 30-40
   kt that will enhance storm organization and intensity.  Stronger
   cells will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts with isolated
   hail also possible mainly with any storms that are able to develop
   transient updraft rotation.  The activity will spread eastward and
   southeastward through the evening hours before storms gradually
   weaken as boundary layer cooling and low-level stabilization occurs.


   ...Mid-Atlantic Region...
   More extensive cloud cover over Pennsylvania and northern West
   Virginia with fewer cloud to the south is creating a differential
   heating zone along the southern edge of the thicker clouds.
   Stronger heating to the south will enhance destabilization in
   advance of storms beginning to develop over southern West Virginia
   at this time.  VAD winds at RLX and LWX exhibit westerly winds of
   30-40 kt above 4 km which will provide sufficient shear to support
   organized multi-cell storms and possibly an isolated supercell or
   two.  Storms are expected to develop eastward this afternoon with
   potential for localized damaging wind gusts although isolated hail
   will also be possible with stronger storms.

   ...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas...
   Low-level moisture persists as far west as the upper Rio Grande
   Valley of New Mexico in the wake of widespread storms on Monday.  A
   few strong storms are expected to develop this afternoon and
   evening, initially over the mountains of central New Mexico, with
   the activity spreading eastward with time.  Other storms will
   develop over southwest Texas as well.  The region is on the edge of
   stronger southwest winds aloft associated with the upper low that is
   beginning to lift northeastward over the southern Great Basin.  A
   few stronger cells capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts
   will be possible.

   ......North-central Rockies to middle Missouri Valley...
   The Great Basin/southwest states-central upper low is beginning to
   move northeastward, with a lead shortwave trough currently lifting
   across northern Arizona expected to overspread the central
   Rockies/Wyoming through the afternoon into tonight. Orographic lift,
   increasing dynamic forcing for ascent coupled with adequate moisture
   will allow for the development and intensification of storms this
   afternoon initially across parts of Utah/western Colorado into
   interior Wyoming where locally severe storms will be possible. As
   forcing for ascent spreads northeastward by late afternoon, a
   somewhat more moist and unstable environment across central/eastern
   Wyoming could allow for more organized/sustained storm modes with
   hail/severe wind gusts possible as storms spread east-northeastward.

   Over the Plains, a nocturnally increasing low-level jet may help
   sustain storms into South Dakota and western/northern Nebraska this
   evening, in addition to an increase in storms farther east toward
   the Missouri River late in the evening/overnight with some hail
   possible.

   ..Weiss/Wendt/Elliott.. 05/22/2018

EF0 confirmed from last night just south of Wilmington OH.

Quote

US National Weather Service Wilmington OH

19 mins ·

NWS storm survey team in Brown County determined that an EF0 tornado touched down north of Mount Orab and was on the ground for approximately one mile. More specific details will follow later today when the team returns and prepares their more detailed report.

New day 2 introduces a slight risk for C IN/ W OH.

Quote

Day 2 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
   Valley as well as the southern Rockies Monday.

   ...Synopsis...

   Omega blocking pattern will persist Monday with an upper low closing
   off over CA and NV. Farther downstream a shortwave trough will crest
   the mean ridge position over the Plains and mid MS Valley region,
   and this feature will continue east through the OH Valley and Great
   Lakes. At the start of the period a quasi-stationary or warm front
   is forecast to extend from the Middle Atlantic westward to a weak
   surface low over IL. A cold front should extend southwest from the
   low through the lower MS Valley and central TX.

   ...Ohio Valley region...

   Elevated showers and storms may be ongoing over the northern portion
   of the OH Valley into the Great Lakes within zone of warm advection
   and isentropic lift north of the warm front. South of this boundary
   clouds should erode with diabatic heating and a moist surface layer
   (upper 60s F dewpoints) resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE during
   the afternoon. Weak convective inhibition should promote the
   development of storms along and in advance of the weak cold front as
   the boundary layer destabilizes. A belt of stronger (30-40 kt from
   700-500 mb) winds aloft will overlap the northern portion of the
   warm sector, but weak effective bulk shear an unidirectional winds
   will promote mostly multicell storm modes including bowing segments.
   An exception will be if enough destabilization can occur along warm
   front where backed low-level winds may augment low-level hodograph
   size and contribute to sufficient effective bulk shear for marginal
   supercell structures. Primary threat is expected to be strong to
   damaging wind gusts during the afternoon into the early evening, but
   a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 

   ...Southern Rockies through Southern High Plains...

   Modest southwesterly winds aloft will become established over the
   higher terrain as upper low settles over southern CA into western
   AZ. Southeasterly low-level winds will result in low to mid 50s F
   dewpoints advecting through the High Plains beneath steep mid-level
   lapse rates contributing to a corridor of moderate instability with
   1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely develop over the higher terrain
   during the afternoon and subsequently spread east into the High
   Plains. Multicell storm modes should be the dominant storm type,
   with some storms possibly evolving into clusters/lines as cold pools
   congeal. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates with inverted-V
   boundary layers will promote a risk for isolated downburst winds,
   but hail will also accompany the stronger storms.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Dial.. 05/20/2018

New day 2 now has a slight risk area from C MO to SW OH.

Quote

 Day 2 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms may develop across portions of the Midwest
   and Ohio Valley region Sunday. Additional strong storms are possible
   across portions of central Texas.

   ...Midwest/Ohio Valley Vicinity...

   A somewhat complex forecast scenario is expected for Sunday, mainly
   due to possible impacts from overnight convection in the Day 1
   period and any ongoing storms Sunday morning. That being said, ample
   opportunity for strong to severe storms will exist along a myriad of
   surface boundaries. A cold front will be positioned along the MO/KS
   border early in the afternoon with a weak surface low over northwest
   MO. The front will then extend west to east across northern MO into
   central IL/IN/OH. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, with
   dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, will result in strong
   destabilization across portions of the Mid-MS and lower OH Valleys.
   Midlevel lapse rates, while not impressive, will be adequate when
   coupled with strong instability for maintaining stronger updrafts.
   0-6km shear will be generally weak across the region in the absence
   of stronger deep layer forcing for ascent. However, portions of the
   region will be on the southern fringes of narrow corridor of
   stronger bulk shear located over the Great Lakes and values ranging
   from around 25-35 kt appear reasonable at this time.  All of this
   together should support storms capable of severe hail. Furthermore,
   steep low level lapse rates and weak low level flow likely will
   favor outflow dominant convection. As such, damaging winds will be
   possible with some potential for upscale growth into one or more
   bowing segments should stronger cold pools become established.

   ...Portions of Central Texas...

   Severe potential across central TX also is somewhat uncertain due to
   expected ongoing convection moving south/southeast toward the region
   at the beginning of the period. The timing of this convection and
   position of any related outflow boundary will impact where strong to
   possibly severe storms may develop during the afternoon. Warm, moist
   advection ahead of the boundary should result in scattered storm
   development. Deep layer shear will remain weak, but modestly steep
   midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability will be adequate for
   at least brief intense updrafts capable of hail. Some stronger wind
   gusts also will be possible as storms struggle to maintain
   intensity/organization.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Leitman.. 05/19/2018

Day 3 has a marginal area from parts of MO/IA to W OH.

Quote

Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong storms may develop across portions of the Midwest and Ohio
   Valley region Sunday.

   ...Midwest/OH Valley...

   Central Plains short-wave trough is expected to induce a
   considerable amount of convection across portions of the central
   Plains/Lower MO Valley late Saturday. Remnants of this activity
   should propagate into IA/northern MO by the start of the day3
   period. While it's not entirely clear how much influence this
   activity will have on the boundary layer, in all likelihood one or
   more surface boundaries should serve as the focus for renewed
   development by early afternoon. Latest thinking is multiple
   clusters/MCS should be ongoing at the start of the period along nose
   of a pronounced LLJ. Downstream boundary-layer heating will
   contribute to destabilization that is expected to aid robust
   thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While mid-level
   heights may be somewhat ridgy, aforementioned convective influences
   should encourage potentially strong thunderstorm development.
   Hail/wind are the primary threats with convection that spreads
   toward the OH Valley.

   ..Darrow.. 05/18/2018

16 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I saw this earlier on twitter and I couldn't believe it but it is true

Nearly 3 years since DTX/GRR has had a tornado watch issued.

Wow that's actually just as bad as the winter storm warning drought for some of us.