jbcmh81

Now it’s just time to watch the upper level freezing lines creep south. I suspect they won’t move much until the low moves south and then there will be a rapid switchover. All depends on timing. The earlier the better, obviously.

Still think later today into the overnight is going to be good. Maybe no 12” totals, but 6-8” is still plenty reasonable if the deformation sets up where it’s supposed to. The first push was always the most questionable.

I think it’s time to stop looking at models. I think 70 is going to be ok in the end even with some mix today. It was always going to be on the line and likely see at least some precip other than snow, so no one should be panicking just yet. Seems to at least be starting as snow around Columbus. Let’s see how long that lasts.

You're all screwed, that's the superior model.

I think a lot of the public watched the local news say 3" and that's all they're expecting.

It's in the zones.

Those are all the new totals for the 3:30 update.

ILN has 6-10" for Columbus. Curiously, they also have 8-12" for Madison County. Not sure how that works.

I don't want to sound like Angry and be negative, because storms heading up from the south moving east of Ohio can make for some excellent storms. I am more just commenting on that track. Apps runners are the unicorns of the Ohio storm compendium. When you see one, make a wish, because it's unlikely you see one again.

Well that'll be wrong. True Apps runners are extremely rare, which is why March 2008 situations only happen like once a century.

They seem to be trying to cover all the bases, throwing in basically every conceivable precipitation type, including rain. The new point has only 3-5" for Columbus down from 3-7" earlier. A little weird considering the trends today, but it's not like it's all set in stone.

Yeah... I think I-70's in Deep Sh**.

Riding the 71 line, who would've thought?

Track from east-central Arkansas to north-central WV, 992. Stronger low, maybe a hair further east?

Last night's run was ridiculous with 2'-3' across the I-70 corridor north from Illinois east through Ohio. It rivaled 1950.

2004 sucked. I was just south of Columbus at that time and it was a major ice storm. Knocked out power for like 4 or 5 days, including on Christmas.

Thanks, can’t say I’ll be here a lot, but the pattern is interesting to say the least...finally. Tons of storminess and potential record cold... I’ll at least be around until it gets boring again. So that would be 3 good runs.

2 models were better, one worse so far for 12z. The good news I guess is that the GFS has been crap and all over the place so far. On to the Euro.

I'd be concerned about the north/west trends, especially for areas along I-70, which are now literally on the line. Another 50-100 miles north and that zone misses out almost completely. Same story as always, really. It's still early, so time to watch it, but it already seems like a classic screw job taking shape.

Looks like it attempts some kind of transfer... one low into Kentucky while another reforms further southeast. It also has the extreme cold look next week with -20 and below numbers showing up.

Oh I definitely don't buy it, but it's just something I've never seen on a model before. I do think many parts of the state go below zero perhaps as early as Sunday night, though.

The FV3 brought back the monster arctic outbreak, but even greater this time. It shows most of Ohio falling below zero on the 26th and has it stay well below zero through the end of the end of the run on the 31st, with another significant push of arctic air poised to drop south into February. That's the wildest run I've ever seen for cold in the Great Lakes by any model ever. For the record, the longest period of below 0 temperatures in Columbus is 56 hours during the 1994 outbreak. This would blow that away by a good week.

Love? It would be a huge blizzard. Almost 1" of precip, all snow, with temps gradually falling from the mid-upper 20s to low teens and strong winds.

You know it's a bad, boring winter when people start reminiscing about winters, forums and posters from 20 years ago.

I read that yesterday on his facebook feed. The news about his leukemia has been bad for some time, but I was hoping he would somehow beat it. One of my favorite meteorologists over the years. His enthusiasm was always palpable, and I don't think there's anyone in the Columbus market who isn't just there for the paycheck now. Not that I pay much attention to it these days, but definitely a loss. Here's hoping for one good storm to send him out.